Evaluation by prediction of the natural range shrinkage of Quercus ilex L. in Eastern Algeria

Abstract

Abstract: This study focuses on the evaluation by prediction of the spatial distribution of Quercus ilex. L in its natural range in Eastern Algeria. The maximum entropy method has allowed the modelling of the species potentially favourable areas under environmental conditions linking the spatial occurrence and the environmental conditions. Three explanatory parameter groups were used for modelling: i) Edaphic variables, ii) Variables related to topography, iii) Climatic variables. The established predictions demonstrate that over the horizons 2050 and 2070, we will lose 125000 and 147000 hectares respectively. It would seem that the most favourable areas for Quercus ilex would extend between elevations of 1430 meters for 2050 and reach by 2070, 1650 meters. The performance of the used model has been confirmed by the value of AUC which is 0,929. The high elevations especially those of the Saharian Atlas will offer the climatic refuges. These results represent a decision support tool for the best strategy of sensibilization and planning for the holm oak conservation.

Keywords: Climatic forcing, ecological niche, species distribution model, kolm oak, maximum entropy

Received (Geliş): 04.08.2017 - Revised (Düzeltme): 26.10.2017 -   Accepted (Kabul): 08.11.2017

Keywords

• Climatic forcing,Ecological niche,Species distribution model,Holm oak,Maximum entropy

Doğu Cezayir’de Quercus ilex L.’nin doğal yayılış alanında azalmanın öngörülmesinin değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma Quercus ilex. L’nin Doğu Cezayir’de doğal yayılışının mekansal dağılımının öngörülmesinin değerlendirilmesine odaklanmaktadır. Maksimum entropi yöntemi, mekansal oluşum ve çevre koşullarını ilişkilendiren çevresel şartlar altında potansiyel olarak uygun türleri modellemeye olanak sağlamıştır. Modelleme için üç açıklayıcı parametre grubu kullanıldı: i) edafik değişkenler, ii) topografya ile ilgili değişkenler ve iii) iklimsel değişkenler. Öngörülere göre, 2050 ve 2070 yıllarında sırasıyla 125000 ve 147000 hektar alan kaybolacaktır. Quercus ilex için en uygun alanlar 2050 yılında 1430 metre rakıma ve 2070’de 1650 metre rakıma çıkacaktır. Çalışmada kullanılan modelin performansı 0,929 olan AUC değeri ile doğrulandı. Yüksek rakımlar, özellikle Sahra Atlaslarının rakımları, iklime bağlı olarak sığınaklar sunacaktır. Bu sonuçlar en iyi sensibilizasyon stratejisi ve çalı meşesinin korunmasının planlaması için verilecek kararları destekleyecek bir araç niteliğindedir.

Keywords

• İklimsel uyarı,ekolojik konum,tür dağılım modeli,çalı meşesi

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