Modelling the Impact of Climate Change and Agricultural Management Practices on Soil Erosion in the Agricultural Basin of Lakes Prespa

Year 2017, Volume: 12 Issue: 4, 285 - 293, 30.12.2017

Alma Ahmeti Spiro Grazhdani Adriana Zyfi

Abstract

Soil erosion and sedimentation are a problem of interest for many land
uses across the Albania, particularly for agricultural areas where the soil
surface is disturbed by harvest, planting, and cultivation of the soil. The
objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change and
agricultural land management on surface erosion and suspended sediment
concentrations in the Lakes Prespa basin. Many hydrological models have been
developed which examine suspended sediment. The DHSVM (Distributed Hydrology
Soil Vegetation Model) model was used to evaluate channel and soil surface
erosion, as well as sediment yield in streams. In this study, the DHSVM model
was calibrated using data for the period of (2010–2016), and was also used to
predict results for the year 2045 using statistically downscaled global climate
data. The results show that as the projected climate–driven intensity of storms
increase, more runoff is predicted in the Lakes Prespa basin. Three tillage
scenarios were incorporated into DHSVM for winter wheat cultivation:
conventional till, reduced till, and no till. Sensitivity of the model to
surface erosion and changes in channel sediment bed depth were both evaluated
for several parameters that relate to erosion. Observations have shown that
suspended sediment concentrations can drastically increase, but model results
do not yet display large fluctuations in suspended sediment concentrations
which are typically observed in nature as a result of storm and erosion events.
In the long term, continued improvements to this preliminary model of the Lakes
Prespa basin can provide better insight into the effects of climate change on
the riparian habitat of carp in the basin and the sediment budget of the
surrounding area.

Keywords

agricultural management practices, climate change, DHSVM model, Lakes Prespa, soil erosion

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