Monthly trend forecasting performance of convolutional neural networks in the Nasdaq market

Öz

Accurate short-term forecasting in stock markets is essential for agile trading strategies, yet the volatile, nonstationary nature of financial data complicates predictive modeling. This study examines the performance of one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in identifying monthly directional movements for NASDAQ-listed equities. Although CNNs have proven effective in pattern recognition, many stock forecasting studies still rely on recurrent architectures. In this paper, by concentrating on CNNs and a sliding-window technique to generate lagged input features, we streamline the computational process for stock trend forecasting. Historical closing prices from multiple NASDAQ companies serve as both training and out-of-sample test sets. Pearson correlation, emphasizing directional alignment between actual and predicted data, is our primary evaluation metric, while mean squared error (MSE) is used to measure predictive accuracy. Through varying hyperparameters, such as network depth, batch size, and window segmentation, we show that CNNs remain robust under diverse conditions. Most scenarios yield strong positive correlations, indicating these networks can effectively capture local price dynamics with minimal hyperparameter tuning. This paper contributes to the field by confirming CNNs’ viability for stock trading and offers a reproducible framework. Our findings support the use of CNN-based pipelines for practitioners seeking rapid, directionally accurate stock trend insights.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Deep learning
• Finance
• Stock market
• Forecasting
• Neural networks
• Algorithmic trading

Nasdaq piyasasında evrişimsel sinir ağlarının aylık yönelim tahmin performansı

Öz

Borsa alanında kısa vadeli doğru kestirimler, çevik alım-satım yöntemleri için büyük önem taşır. Ancak, parasal verilerin değişken ve durağan olmayan yapısı, kestirimsel modeli zorlaştırmaktadır. Bu çalışma, NASDAQ’ta işlem gören şirketlerin aylık yönelim değişimlerini belirlemede bir boyutlu evrişimsel sinir ağlarının (ESA) başarımını incelemektedir. ESA’lar örüntü tanımada etkili olduklarını kanıtlamış olsa da, birçok borsa kestirim çalışması hâlâ yinelemeli yapılara dayanmaktadır. Bu yazıda, ESA’lara ve kaydırmalı pencere yöntemiyle gecikmeli girdi özellikleri üretmeye odaklanarak, borsa eğilimi kestirimi için hesaplamalı işlemi sadeleştiriyoruz. Birden çok NASDAQ şirketine ait geçmiş kapanış değerleri, hem eğitme hem de dış örneklerle sınama için kullanılmıştır. Gerçek ve kestirilen veriler arasındaki yönsel uyumu öne çıkaran Pearson bağıntısı, başlıca değerlendirme ölçümüzdür; kestirim doğruluğunu ölçmek için ise Ortalama Karesel Hata (OKH) kullanılmaktadır. Ağ derinliği, yığın boyutu ve pencere bölütlemesi gibi çeşitli üst düzenleyici değerleri değiştirerek, ESA’ların farklı koşullar altında da sağlamlığını koruduğunu gösteriyoruz. Çoğu durumda güçlü ve olumlu bağıntılar elde edilmiştir; bu da, bu ağların yerel fiyat devinimlerini çok az ayarlamayla etkili biçimde yakalayabildiğini göstermektedir. Bu yazı, ESA’ların borsa alım-satımı için uygunluğunu doğrulayarak alana katkı sunmakta ve yeniden uygulanabilir bir düzenek önermektedir. Bulgularımız, hızlı ve yönsel olarak doğru borsa eğilim bilgileri arayan uygulayıcılar için ESA tabanlı işlem düzeneklerinin kullanımını desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Derin öğrenme
• Finans
• Yapay sinir ağları
• Borsa
• Öngörü
• Algoritmik alım satım

Kaynakça

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