THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES AND RAIL FREIGHT TRANSPORT

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3, 182 - 193, 30.09.2018

Abdullah Acik , Sadik Ozlen Baser

Öz

Purpose- The
aim of this study is to determine the relationship between the amount of cargo
carried by the railway and economic activities of Turkey, and to contribute to
Turkey's determination of the required investment amount by detecting the
amount of increase in potential demand of railway transport in our country's
progress in achieving the objectives of the 2023 vision.  In addition, the emphasis on railways in the
transport process will make a significant contribution to the green supply
chain objectives by reducing losses to the environment.

Methodology- In
this study, methodology consists of three methods; firstly, the amount of cargo
transported by railways and Turkey's trade volume were analyzed by econometric
techniques covering the years 1977-2016, and the coefficients were used to
forecast cargo transportation by railways in 2023; secondly, the European Union
countries that have similar nature with Turkey were tried to be determined by
hierarchical clustering analysis; and thirdly, a data envelopment analysis was
implemented to these identified countries. Because, the efficient usage of
current infrastructure is also important for planning future investment needs.

Findings- As a
result of the econometric analysis, a significant positive relationship was
found between the variables. A 1% increase in trade volume leads to an increase
of about 0.35% in freight loads on rail transport, consequently the increase in
the transported cargo was calculated as 85%. According to cluster analysis,
Turkey was placed in a group which included United Kingdom, France and Italy,
and was the least efficient country in the group considering the results of the
data envelopment analysis.

Conclusion- As a result of these analyzes, it was
determined that in order to effectively serve the 1.17 trillion-dollar trade
volume targeted by our country in 2023, it needed short-term
efficiency-enhancing investments and long-term serious infrastructure
investments.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rail freight transport, trade volume, efficiency, investment

Kaynakça

• Altınok, S. (2001). Türkiye’de ulaştırma politikaları, karayolları ve demiryollarının mukayesesi. SÜ İİBF Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 1(2), 73-87.
• Anderson, F. N. G., Elger, T. (2012). Swedish freight demand: short, medium, and long- term elasticities. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 46(1), 79-97.
• Banker, R. D., Charnes, A., Cooper, W. W. (1984). Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis. Management Science, 30(9), 1078-1092.
• Gargett, D., Aroia, L. (1990). Freight flows in Australian transport corridors. Occasional paper. Publication of: Australian Government Publishing Service, (98).
• Chang, M. (2014). Principles of scientific methods. CRC Press.
• Charnes, A., Cooper, W. W., Rhodes, E. (1978). Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research, 2(6), 429–444.
• Cook, W. D., Tone, K., Zhu, J. (2014). Data envelopment analysis: prior to choosing a model. Omega, 44, 1-4.
• Çekerol, G., Nalçakan, M. (2011). Lojistik sektörü içerisinde türkiye demiryolu yurtiçi yük taşıma talebinin ridge regresyonla analizi. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 31(2), 321-344.
• Eurostat (2017). Milyar ton-km ve toplam demiryolu uzunluğu. https://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-fundings/statistics/pocketbook-2017_en.
• İnan, M., Demir, M. (2017). Demiryolu ulaşımı ve Türkiye’de hızlı tren yatırımlarının etkileri: Eskişehir-Konya örneği. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 27(1), 99-120.
• Kabasakal, A., Solak, A. O. (2008). Evrensel hizmet yükümlülüğünün uygulanması ve Türk demiryolu sektörü. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 3(2), 137-146
• Kabasakal, A., Solak, A. O. (2009). Demiryolu sektörünün rekabete açılması. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 25, 27-34.
• Karagöz, Y. (2016). SPSS ve AMOS 23 uygulamalı istatiksel analizler. Nobel Akademik, Ankara.
• Kasapoğlu, L., Cerit, A. G. (2011). Türkiye'de intermodal konteyner taşımacılığında demiryolu ulaştırma potansiyelinin analizi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1), 59-72.
• Kaynak, M. (2002). Yeni demiryolu çağı yüksek hızlı trenler ve Türkiye. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 13, (42-43), 23-53.
• Productivity Commission (2006). Road and rail freight infrastructure pricing. Inquiry Report 41. Productivity Commission, Melbourne, VIC.
• Rao, P. S. (1978). Forecasting the demand for railway freight services. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 12, 7–26.
• Saatçioğlu, C., Çankırı Kolbaşı, N. (2012). Türkiye lojistik sektöründe denizyolu-demiryolu entegrasyon sürecinin incelenmesi, Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 1(2), 1-25
• Song, M., Zhang, G., Zeng, W., Liu, J., Fang, K. (2016). Railway transportation and environmental efficiency in China. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 48, 488-498.
• Tuna, O. (2011). Türkiye için lojistik ve denizcilik stratejileri: uluslararası ve bölgesel belirleyiciler. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3 (2).
• TÜİK (2017). Demiryoluyla taşınan yük. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1584 yük.
• World Bank (2017a). Toplam ihracat. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.MRCH.CD.WT.
• World Bank (2017b). Toplam ithalat. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.VAL.MRCH.CD.WT.
• World Bank (2017c). GSYİH. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD.
• World Bank (2017d). Ürün ihracatı. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.CD.
• World Bank (2017e). Ürün ithalatı. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.CD.
• World Bank (2017f). Nüfus. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL.
• World Bank (2017g). Ülke alanı. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.TOTL.K2.
• Woroniuk, C., Marinov, M., Zunder, T., Mortimer, P. (2013). Time series analysis of rail freight services by the private sector in Europe. Transport Policy, 25, 81-93.