The Influence of Heat Analysis on the Hatching Rate of Lucilia Sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) Eggs Using Polynomial Regression Method
Abstract
This study examines the effects of temperature on the hatching rates of Lucilia sericata, a species important for forensic entomology and medical biology. Using a polynomial regression approach, we investigated the relationship between extreme thermal conditions and egg emergence rates to provide insights that could enhance applications in postmortem interval (PMI) estimation and ecological modeling. Eggs were subjected to controlled temperature treatments ranging from $0^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $41^\circ\mathrm{C}$ at $1^\circ\mathrm{C}$ intervals, maintaining 45% relative humidity. Observations were conducted at 24, 48, and 72-hour intervals, with additional incubation at $30^\circ\mathrm{C}$ for those subjected to extreme temperatures. Findings revealed no larval emergence at temperatures below $10^\circ\mathrm{C}$ or above $40^\circ\mathrm{C}$. However, within a $14^\circ\mathrm{C}$ to $38^\circ\mathrm{C}$ range, hatching rates reached their peak at $28^\circ\mathrm{C}$ (89.7%), indicating optimal developmental conditions. Our polynomial regression model demonstrated a high degree of accuracy ($R^2 > 0.70$) in predicting hatching rates across varying temperatures, thus establishing a predictive framework for forensic and ecological applications. The results emphasize the potential for this thermal modeling approach to enhance forensic entomological practices by providing refined developmental timelines for L. sericata, a species widely used in PMI estimation. The findings also underscore the species’ ecological sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, which may inform future ecological distribution models.
Keywords
Forensic entomology, Larval emergence, Lucilia sericata, Polynomial regression, Temperature effects
Supporting Institution
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Thanks
We are also grateful to the staff at the Center for Traditional and Complementary Medicine Practice and Research (Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa) for their assistance in maintaining the Lucilia sericata colony and for providing the technical resources needed to complete this study. Detailed descriptions of the equipment and specific protocols are available upon request for reproducibility purposes.
References
- [1] N. Daldal, M. Atambay, Myiasis (Miyaz) in Arthropods, in M. A. Özcel, Y. Özbel, M. A. K. (Eds.), Özcel’in Tıbbi Parazit Hastalıkları, Meta Basım, Izmir, 2007.
- [2] A. Demirsoy, Yas¸amın Temel Kuralları Omurgasızlar/B¨ocekler Entomoloji, Meteksan Basım, Ankara, 2003.
- [3] E. Polat, Miyazis (Diptera: Brachycera/Calliphoridae), in Y. Özbel (Ed.), Vektör Artropodlar ve Mücadelesi, Türkiye Parazitoloji Derneği Yayın No. 25, İzmir, (2017), 283–310.
- [4] E. Polat, Larva Debridement Therapy (LDT), T¨urkiye Aile Hekimliği Dergisi, 14(4) (2010), 188–191.
- [5] A. Roe, L. G. Higley, Development modeling of Lucilia sericata, PeerJ, 3 (2015), e803.
- [6] J. Amendt, C. S. Richards, C. P. Campobasso, et al., Best practice in forensic entomology – standards and guidelines, International Journal of Legal Medicine, 125(6) (2011), 777–782.
- [7] G. S. Anderson, Determining time of death using blow fly development, Journal of Forensic Sciences, 49(4) (2004), 836–840.
- [8] S. Matuszewski, Post-Mortem interval estimation based on insect evidence: Current challenges, Insects, 12(4) (2021), 314.
- [9] K. Clark, L. Evans, R. Wall, Growth rates of the blowfly, Lucilia sericata, on different body tissues, Forensic Science International, 156(2–3) (2006), 145–149.
- [10] A. Tüzün, S. Yüksel, Postmortem interval’in saptanmasında adli entomoloji, Türkiye Klinikleri Journal of Forensic Medicine and Forensic Sciences, 4(1) (2007), 23–32.
