SU TÜKETİMİ VE KAZANÇ ODAKLI, DİRENÇLİ (GÜRBÜZ) SULAMA PLANLAMASI

Abstract

Su kıtlığı birçok bölgede ertelemeye göz yumulamayacak ölçüde acil çözümler bekleyen bir problem haline gelmiştir. Tarımın kullanılabilir su kaynaklarının ise önemli bir kısmını tükettiği bilinen bir gerçektir. Bu çalışmada bu gözlemlerden yola çıkılarak, çift amaçlı, doğrusal ve stokastik bir karar destek modeli sunulmuştur. Söz konusu model seçilen bölgede yıllık ekim planı ile birlikte yıl boyu gerçekleşecek su tüketim tahminlerini, yılsonu hasatına ait muhtemel kazancı göz önünde bulundurarak çıktı olarak vermektedir. Modelin dirençli yapısı tüm bu çıktıyı üretirken yağış, verim ve ürünlerin ortalama birim fiyatlarındaki belirsizliği hesaba katmasından kaynaklanmaktadır. Çift amaçlı yapı ise su tüketimi ve kazanç arasında varolan çelişkinin doğal bir sonucudur. Sunulan modelin bakış açısı genel olarak yıllık ekim planlaması ve su dağıtımı gibi hizmetleri yürütmeden, ayrıca yıllık tarım gelirlerinin öngörülmesinden sorumlu idari birimlerle örtüşmektedir. İlaveten, çalışmada yağmur hasatı ve yağmur sulama sistemleri gibi iki önemli teknolojinin potansiyel katkısı da örnek alan çalışması üzerinde gösterilmiştir. Bu noktada, modelin çift amaçlı yapısından kaynaklanan avantajlarının bir kez daha altı çizilmiştir. Zira, tek amaçlı benzerlerine kıyasla bu yapıdaki modeller, birden fazla optimum plan çıkarabildiği için uygulayıcıya karar alma noktasında daha geniş bir perspektif ve esneklik sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Karar destek ünitesi
• eniyileme
• sulama
• yağmur hasatı
• tarım planlama

ROBUST PLANNING OF IRRIGATION CONSIDERING WATER CONSUMPTION AND REVENUE

Abstract

Water scarcity is a problem for many regions which requires immediate action, and solutions cannot be postponed for a long time. It is known that farming consumes a significant portion of usable water. In this study, a decision-support model of biobjective stochastic linear formulation is proposed. The model is generating annual planting plans together with water consumption projections for each farmer in the region while taking revenue of the overall harvest into account. The structure of the proposed model maintains robustness against the volatilities in precipitation, yield, and market price. The inherent trade-off between water consumption and revenue lends itself to multi-objective planning. This is a perspective especially useful for regional administrations to plan next year's crop pattern together with agricultural incomes and irrigation expenses. Furthermore, it is also shown how the model can be used to investigate the potential of rainwater harvesting or switching to water-efficient irrigation methodologies. The decision support model is especially unique in the sense that it can generate a set of Pareto optimum solutions as opposed to a single objective counterpart. This property is helpful in terms of not only providing a broader perspective to evaluate and project the possibilities but also increasing the applicability of the results by providing a flexible design framework.

Keywords

• decision support
• robust optimization
• irrigation
• farming planning
• rain harvesting

Ethical Statement

The study does NOT contain any conflicting interest with another party. All the data used in the demonstrations are gathered from open and referenced resources for the sake of replicability. All the effort belongs to the author.

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