ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Yaşar Turna

ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Abstract

Predicting the future course of energy consumption in line with sustainable development goals plays a critical role in long-term planning processes in terms of resource management, environmental sustainability, and economic stability. Therefore, in this study, Turkey's energy consumption until 2035 was estimated using the Random Forest machine learning model developed based on macroeconomic indicators. In the modeling process, energy consumption, economic growth, inflation, industrial carbon dioxide emissions and population growth data between 1965 and 2024 were used. These data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI, 2025) and World Energy Statistics (WES, 2025) databases. In the analysis, the Random Forest model, a machine learning method, was preferred. In the established model, energy consumption was estimated to account for the nonlinear and complex interactions of economic growth, inflation, industrial carbon dioxide emissions and population growth variables. The estimation results obtained with the Random Forest model show that Turkey's energy consumption in the 2025-2034 period will follow a fluctuating but generally upward trend. Non-linear transitions have been observed in the forecasts, especially in some years, where there have been sudden jumps and fixations.

Keywords

References

Akay, E. Ç., Topal, K. H., Kizilarslan, S., & Bulbul, H. (2019). Forecasting of Turkish housing price index: ARIMA, random forest, ARIMA-random forest. Pressacademia, 10(10), 7-11.
Akbaş, Y. E., & Lebe, F. (2015). Türkiye’de sanayileşme, finansal gelişme, ekonomik büyüme ve kentleşmenin enerji tüketimi üzerindeki etkisi: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalı bir araştırma. Ege Academic Review, 15(2), 197-206.
Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). The emissions, energy consumption, and growth nexus: evidence from the commonwealth of independent states. Energy policy, 38(1), 650-655.
Arslankaya, S., & Toprak, Ş. (2021). Makine öğrenmesi ve derin öğrenme algoritmalarını kullanarak hisse senedi fiyat tahmini. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, 13(1), 178-192.
Begum, R. A., Sohag, K., Abdullah, S. M. S., & Jaafar, M. (2015). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41, 594- 601.
Bekhet, H. A., & Bt Othman, N. S. (2011). Causality analysis among electricity consumption, consumer expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI): Case study of Malaysia. Journal of economics and international finance, 3(4), 228.
Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782-789.
Bozkurt, C., & Okumuş, İ. (2015). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi, ticari serbestleşme ve nüfus yoğunluğunun CO2 emisyonu üzerindeki etkileri: yapisal kirilmali eşbütünleşme analizi. Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12(32), 23-35.

Büyükyılmaz, A., & Mert, M. (2015). CO2 Emisyonu, Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin MS-VAR Yaklaşımı ile Modellenmesi: Türkiye Örneği. Zeitschrift Für Die Welt Der Türken, 7(3).
Çeltek, S. A. (2024). Türkiye’nin enerji talebi tahmin probleminin çözümünde regresyon yöntemlerine dayalı yaklaşımlar. Fırat Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 36(2), 705-715.
Çetin, M., & Sezen, S. (2018). Türkiye’de yenilenebilir ve yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve karbondioksit salinimi arasindaki ilişki: Bir svar (yapisal var) analizi. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 16(1), 136-157.
Efeoğlu, R. (2022). Çevresel Kuznets eğrisi çerçevesinde sanayileşme, yenilenebilir enerji, enerji tüketimi ve finansal gelişmenin CO2 salınımı üzerindeki etkisi. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(2), 2103-2115.
Ekinci, F. (2019). YSA ve ANFIS tekniklerine dayalı enerji tüketim tahmin yöntemlerinin karşılaştırılması. Duzce University Journal of Science and Technology, 7(3), 1029-1044.
Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy (2025). https://www.energyinst.org/ statistical-review. (Access Date: 19.07.2025).
Es, H. A. (2020). Gri tahmin modelleri ile toplam enerji talep tahmini: Türkiye örneği. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(3), 771-782.
Gök, A., & Yıldız, Ş. (2024). İktisadi Büyüme, Enerji Tüketimi ve CO2 Emisyonu Arasındaki İlişki: MIST Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 15(43), 1031- 1045.
Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of political economy, 91(2), 228-248.
Halmuratov, G., Madraximov, Q., Zakirova, G., Xolmuratov, X., Djumabayeva, S., Yaqubova, Y., & Xolmurotov, F. (2025). The impact of energy consumption and trade openness on economic growth in uzbekistan: a vecm approach. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15(2), 23.
IEA (2023). World energy outlook 2023. Paris, France: International Energy Agency (IEA). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014). Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report. IPCC: Geneva, Szwitzerland.
Kardaşlar, A. (2022). Ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi ve küreselleşme sürecinin ekolojik ayak izi üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Business and Economics Research Journal, 13(3), 385-401.
Kazanasmaz, E., Demirel, B. L., Karatepe, S., & Hızarcı, A. E. (2023). Ekonomik büyüme, elektrik tüketimi ve karbon emisyonu ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi, 6(2), 248-265.
Kumral, C. D., Topal, A., Ersoy, M., Çolak, R., & Yiğit, T. (2022). Random forest algoritmasının FPGA üzerinde gerçekleştirilerek performans analizinin yapılması. El-Cezeri, 9(4), 1315-1327.
Orhan, A., & Sağlam, N. (2023). Financial Forecast in Business and an Application Proposal: The Case of Random Forest Technique. Journal of Accounting & Finance/Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (99).
Özdemir, M. E. (2021). Yapay Sinir Ağları Kullanılarak Orta Dönem Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketim Tahmini: İskenderun Örneği. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (28), 489-492.
Özekenci, E. K. (2023). Karbondioksit Emisyonu (CO2) ile İhracat, Enerji, Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (40), 83-98.
Pata, U. K., & Yurtkuran, S. (2018). Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, nüfus yoğunluğu ve finansal gelişmenin CO2 salimina etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 303-318.
Sadorsky, P. (2011). Trade and energy consumption in the Middle East. Energy Economics, 33(5), 739-749.
Sevgen, S. C., & Aliefendioğlu, Y. (2020). Mass apprasial with a machine learning algorithm: random forest regression. Bilişim Teknolojileri Dergisi, 13(3), 301-311.
Shafiei, S., & Salim, R. A. (2014). Non-renewable and renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions in OECD countries: a comparative analysis. Energy policy, 66, 547-556.
Shahbaz, M., Lean, H. H., & Shabbir, M. S. (2012). Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Pakistan: cointegration and Granger causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2947-2953.
Smil, V. (2018). Energy and civilization: a history. MIT press.
Sorrell, S. (2010). Energy, economic growth and environmental sustainability: Five propositions. Sustainability, 2(6), 1784-1809.
Stern, D. I. (1993). Energy and economic growth in the USA: a multivariate approach. Energy economics, 15(2), 137-150.
Stern, N. H. (2007). The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge University press.
Sungur, F., & Bakır, H. (2024). Hiperparametre ayarlama ve veri dengelemenin kalp hastalığı tahmini için kullanılan makine öğrenimi algoritmaları üzerindeki etkilerinin incelenmesi. Bilişim Teknolojileri Dergisi, 17(1), 45-58.
Tong, T., Ortiz, J., Xu, C., & Li, F. (2020). Economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in the E7 countries: a bootstrap ARDL bound test. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 10(1), 1-17.
Ülkü, H., & Yalpır, Ş. (2021). Enerji talep tahmini için metodoloji geliştirme: 2030 yılı Türkiye örneği. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 10(1), 188-201.
Yücesan, M., Yağış, O., & Torun, M. (2019). Ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketiminin CO2 emisyonu üzerindeki etkileri: Seçilmiş MENA ülkeleri için panel veri analizi. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 17(4), 351-368.
World Bank (2025). World Development İndicator. https://databank.worldbank.org /source/world – development – indicators (Erişim tarihi; 19.07.2025).

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Macroeconomic Theory

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yaşar Turna ^*
0000-0002-3972-9099
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

October 17, 2025

Publication Date

October 21, 2025

Submission Date

August 20, 2025

Acceptance Date

October 5, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 9 Number: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Turna, Y. (2025). ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS. Journal of Research in Economics, 9(2), 104-119. https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL

AMA

1.Turna Y. ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS. JORE. 2025;9(2):104-119. https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL

Chicago

Turna, Yaşar. 2025. “ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS”. Journal of Research in Economics 9 (2): 104-19. https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL.

EndNote

Turna Y (October 1, 2025) ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS. Journal of Research in Economics 9 2 104–119.

IEEE

[1]Y. Turna, “ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS”, JORE, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 104–119, Oct. 2025, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL

ISNAD

Turna, Yaşar. “ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS”. Journal of Research in Economics 9/2 (October 1, 2025): 104-119. https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL.

JAMA

1.Turna Y. ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS. JORE. 2025;9:104–119.

MLA

Turna, Yaşar. “ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS”. Journal of Research in Economics, vol. 9, no. 2, Oct. 2025, pp. 104-19, https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL.

Vancouver

1.Yaşar Turna. ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECAST FROM A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE: 2035 PROJECTION WITH MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS. JORE [Internet]. 2025 Oct. 1;9(2):104-19. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA97RK37HL