Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method

Ceren Ünal; Gamze Özel Kadılar

doi:10.59313/jsr-a.1687759

Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method

Abstract

Türkiye is situated on active fault lines, where significant tectonic movements occur, resulting in earthquakes, and is located in one of the world’s most active earthquake zones, the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt. We propose an estimator to examine the population mean of the earthquake magnitude using the information of the largest aftershocks among aftershocks via the sub-sampling method under the non-response scheme. The proposed estimator is obtained and the expressions for the bias, mean square error (MSE) and minimum mean square error are also derived to the first order of approximation. We evaluate earthquakes in the Aegean Region of Türkiye between the years 1900 – 2021mbased on different scenarios within the dataset. The results show that the estimation of the population mean is the perfect fit for the real earthquake magnitude population mean via the proposed estimator. By analyzing earthquake data from Türkiye, we successfully highlighted the practical significance and applicability of our proposed estimator in a real-world scenario.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

TUBITAK

Project Number

124F059

Thanks

We like to thank to the support by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) ARDEB 1002 [Project number: 124F059] program. The authors also thank Asst. Prof. Dr. Tuba Eroğlu Azak for her valuable advice.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Theory of Sampling, Applied Statistics

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ceren Ünal ^*
0000-0002-9357-1771
Türkiye

Gamze Özel Kadılar
0000-0003-3886-3074
Türkiye

Publication Date

September 30, 2025

Submission Date

April 30, 2025

Acceptance Date

September 11, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Number: 062

DOI

https://doi.org/10.59313/jsr-a.1687759

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA53FP86RN

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ünal, C., & Özel Kadılar, G. (2025). Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method. Journal of Scientific Reports-A, 062, 12-28. https://doi.org/10.59313/jsr-a.1687759

AMA

1.Ünal C, Özel Kadılar G. Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method. JSR-A. 2025;(062):12-28. doi:10.59313/jsr-a.1687759

Chicago

Ünal, Ceren, and Gamze Özel Kadılar. 2025. “Prediction of the Earthquake Magnitudes With A New Estimator via Sub-Sampling Method”. Journal of Scientific Reports-A, nos. 062: 12-28. https://doi.org/10.59313/jsr-a.1687759.

EndNote

Ünal C, Özel Kadılar G (September 1, 2025) Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method. Journal of Scientific Reports-A 062 12–28.

IEEE

[1]C. Ünal and G. Özel Kadılar, “Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method”, JSR-A, no. 062, pp. 12–28, Sept. 2025, doi: 10.59313/jsr-a.1687759.

ISNAD

Ünal, Ceren - Özel Kadılar, Gamze. “Prediction of the Earthquake Magnitudes With A New Estimator via Sub-Sampling Method”. Journal of Scientific Reports-A. 062 (September 1, 2025): 12-28. https://doi.org/10.59313/jsr-a.1687759.

JAMA

1.Ünal C, Özel Kadılar G. Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method. JSR-A. 2025;:12–28.

MLA

Ünal, Ceren, and Gamze Özel Kadılar. “Prediction of the Earthquake Magnitudes With A New Estimator via Sub-Sampling Method”. Journal of Scientific Reports-A, no. 062, Sept. 2025, pp. 12-28, doi:10.59313/jsr-a.1687759.

Vancouver

1.Ceren Ünal, Gamze Özel Kadılar. Prediction of the earthquake magnitudes with A new estimator via sub-sampling method. JSR-A. 2025 Sep. 1;(062):12-28. doi:10.59313/jsr-a.1687759