kaüi̇i̇bfd Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 1309-4289 2149-9136 Kafkas Üniversitesi 10.36543/kauiibfd.2021.008 AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR CONVERGENCE OF DEFENCE EXPENDITURES IN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA COUNTRIES ORTA DOĞU VE KUZEY AFRİKA ÜLKELERİNDE SAVUNMA HARCAMALARININ YAKINSAMASI İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6412-6003 Demircioğlu Karabıyık Elmas ISTANBUL ESENYURT UNIVERSITY 06 28 2021 12 23 147 159 03 30 2021 05 08 2021 Copyright © 2010, Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 2010 Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Countries allocate resources for defence expenditures for various reasons, especially deterrence. In this study, the convergence hypothesis for defence spending in the Middle East and North African countries is examined. In the study, annual Defence Expenditures / GDP for the period 1993-2019 were used for the Middle East and North African countries. According to the analysis results, it was determined that there is an unconditional β convergence in defence expenditures on a panel basis in the Middle East and North African countries. According to the convergence of results by country, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Turkey at the 10% statistical significance level, Bahrain, Kuwait and Lebanon at the 5% statistical significance level, and Saudi Arabia at the 1% statistical significance converges to the group average. As a result, most of the countries act according to the average trend of the country group in the region in defence expenditures due to factors such as the increase in regional security risks and / or changes in armament policies of neighbouring countries.

Ülkeler caydırıcılık başta olmak üzere çeşitli sebepler savunma harcamalarına kaynak ayırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde savunma harcamaları için, yakınsama hipotezi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkeleri için 1993-2019 dönemi yıllık Savunma Harcamaları/GSYİH kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde savunma harcamalarının panel bazında koşulsuz β yakınsamasının söz konusu olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ülkelerin yakınsama sonuçlarına göre ise, Fas, Tunus, Ürdün, Türkiye %10 istatistiksel anlam düzeyinde, Bahreyn, Kuveyt ve Lübnan’ın %5 istatistiksel anlam düzeyinde ve Suudi Arabistan %1 istatistiksel anlam düzeyinde grup ortalamasına yakınsama göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, ülkelerin çoğunluğu, bölgesel güvenlik risklerindeki artış ve/veya komşu ülkelerin silahlanma politikalarındaki değişimler gibi faktörlerin etkisi ile savunma harcamalarında, bölgedeki ülke grubunun ortalama eğilimine göre hareket etmektedirler.

 Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkeleri Savunma Harcamaları Yakınsama Middle East and North Africa Countries Defence Expenditures Convergence Arvanitidis, P., & Kollias, C. (2016). Converging defence burdens? Some further findings. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 22(4), 365375. Arvanitidis, P., Kollias, C., & Anastasopoulos, K. (2014). Is there an international convergence in defence burdens? Some initial findings. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 20(4), 611-620. Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443. Barro, R. J., Sala-i-Martin, X., Blanchard, O. J., & Hall, R. E. (1991). Convergence across states and regions. Brookings papers on economic activity, 107-182. Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Convergence in international output. Journal of applied econometrics, 10(2), 97-108. Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1996). Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis. Journal of econometrics, 71(1-2), 161-173. Cass, D. (1965). Optimum growth in an aggregative model of capital accumulation. The Review of economic studies, 32(3), 233-240. Gürı̇ş, S., Güriş, B., & Tiraşoğlu, M. (2017). Do military expenditures converge in NATO countries? Linear and nonlinear unit root test evidence. Theoretical & Applied Economics, 24(2). Islam, N. (2003). What have we learnt from the convergence debate?. Journal of economic surveys, 17(3), 309-362. Koopmans, T. C. (1963). On the concept of optimal economic growth (No. 163). Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University. Lau, C. K. M., Demir, E., & Bilgin, M. H. (2016). A nonlinear model of military expenditure convergence: Evidence from estar nonlinear unit root test. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(3), 392-403. Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of monetary economics, 22(1), 3-42. Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(2), 407-437. Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of political economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), S71-S102. Saba, C. S. (2020). Convergence or divergence patterns in global defence spending: further evidence from a nonlinear single factor model. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 1(ahead-of-print). Solarin, S. A. (2019). Convergence of defence burdens in Asia-pacific economies: A residual augmented least squares approach. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 25(2). Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94. Yılancı, V., Eryüzlü, H., & Hopoğlu, S. (2020). Convergence of Military Burdens in the MENA Region. Uluslararası İlişkiler/International Relations, 17(66), 4159.