DATA-DRIVEN OPTIMAL SITE SELECTION FOR SOLAR POWER PLANTS BASED ON SOLAR IRRADIANCE ANALYSIS

Abstract

Solar power plants play a critical role in meeting global energy demands in a sustainable and environmentally friendly manner. The efficiency and long-term sustainability of clean energy production largely depend on the optimal siting of these plants, making solar irradiation data a crucial factor for ensuring maximum energy yield. This study focuses on Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), one of the most significant and widely used indicators in the literature for identifying suitable solar power plant locations, by performing monthly analyses through remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS). Regions with higher irradiation levels were classified accordingly. Technical, environmental, and economic factors, which may vary across countries or regions, were intentionally excluded to highlight the primary influence of solar irradiance on site suitability. The study was conducted specifically for the Elmalı district in Antalya, Türkiye. Results show that 28% of the area is highly suitable for solar power plant installation, 33% is moderately suitable, and 39% is less suitable based on GHI. In absolute terms, 4,969 hectares are classified as "very high suitability" and 43,038 hectares as "high suitability," indicating areas with strong investment potential. This study provides a clear, data-driven assessment of irradiance-based suitability and is expected to support and guide strategic solar energy investment and planning decisions in the region.

Keywords

• Solar power plants
• solar radiation
• suitable site selection
• Global Horizontal Irradiance
• Remote sensing and GIS.

Thanks

In this study, we would like to express our gratitude to Prof. Dr. Ali KILÇIK, Faculty Member at the Department of Space Sciences and Technologies at Akdeniz University, and graduate student Onur UÇAR for their support in the monthly calculation of solar incidence angles.

Güneş Enerjisi Santralleri için Güneş Işınımı Analizine Dayalı Veri Tabanlı Optimum Yer Seçimi

Abstract

Güneş enerjisi santralleri, küresel enerji talebinin sürdürülebilir ve çevre dostu bir biçimde karşılanmasında kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Temiz enerji üretiminin verimliliği ve uzun vadeli sürdürülebilirliği büyük ölçüde bu santrallerin optimum şekilde konumlandırılmasına bağlıdır. Bu nedenle, maksimum enerji veriminin sağlanabilmesi açısından güneş ışınımı verileri temel bir belirleyici unsur olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışma, literatürde güneş enerjisi santralleri için uygun alanların belirlenmesinde en yaygın ve en önemli göstergelerden biri olan Küresel Yatay Işınım (Global Horizontal Irradiance – GHI) üzerine odaklanmakta; uzaktan algılama (UA) ve coğrafi bilgi sistemleri (CBS) kullanılarak aylık analizler gerçekleştirmektedir. Yüksek ışınım değerlerine sahip bölgeler uygunluk düzeylerine göre sınıflandırılmıştır. Ülkeler veya bölgeler arasında değişkenlik gösterebilen teknik, çevresel ve ekonomik faktörler, güneş ışınımının alan uygunluğu üzerindeki temel etkisini vurgulamak amacıyla bilinçli olarak analiz kapsamı dışında bırakılmıştır. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin Antalya iline bağlı Elmalı ilçesi özelinde yürütülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, çalışma alanının %28’i güneş enerjisi santrali kurulumu açısından yüksek derecede uygun, %33’ü orta düzeyde uygun ve %39’u düşük düzeyde uygun olarak sınıflandırılmıştır. Mutlak alan büyüklükleri dikkate alındığında, 4.969 hektar alan “çok yüksek uygunluk”, 43.038 hektar alan ise “yüksek uygunluk” sınıfında yer almakta olup, bu bölgeler güçlü yatırım potansiyeline işaret etmektedir. Bu çalışma, ışınım temelli uygunluk değerlendirmesine yönelik açık ve veri odaklı bir çerçeve sunmakta ve bölgedeki güneş enerjisi yatırımları ile planlama süreçlerine destek sağlaması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

• Güneş enerjisi santralleri
• güneş ışınımı
• uygun yer seçimi
• Küresel Yatay Işınım
• uzaktan algılama ve coğrafi bilgi sistemleri

Thanks

Bu çalışmada, güneş geliş açılarının aylık hesaplanmasına verdikleri destekten dolayı Akdeniz Üniversitesi Uzay Bilimleri ve Teknolojileri Bölümü öğretim üyesi Prof. Dr. Ali KILÇIK’a ve yüksek lisans öğrencisi Onur UÇAR’a teşekkürlerimizi sunarız.

References

1. A. O. Maka and J. M. Alabid, “Solar energy technology and its roles in sustainable development,” Clean Energy, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 476-483, 2022.
2. P. Dechamps, “The IEA World Energy Outlook 2022–a brief analysis and implications,” European Energy & Climate Journal, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 100-103, 2023.
3. R. M. Elavarasan, R. Pugazhendhi, T. Jamal, J. Dyduch, M. T. Arif, N. M. Kumar, ... and M. Nadarajah, “Envisioning the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through the lens of energy sustainability (SDG 7) in the post-COVID-19 world,” Applied Energy, vol. 292, p. 116665, 2021.
4. J. S. Kikstra, A. Mastrucci, J. Min, K. Riahi, and N. D. Rao, “Decent living gaps and energy needs around the world,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 16, no. 9, p. 095006, 2021.
5. Ş. Kırcalı, and S. Selim, “Site suitability analysis for solar power plants using the geographic information system and multi-criteria decision analysis: the case of Antalya, Turkey,” Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, vol. 23, pp. 1233-1250, 2021.
6. T. Z. Ang, M. Salem, M. Kamarol, H. S. Das, M. A. Nazari, and N. Prabaharan, “A comprehensive study of renewable energy sources: Classifications, challenges and suggestions,” Energy strategy reviews, vol. 43, p. 100939, 2022.
7. NASA, “The Balance of Power in the Earth-Sun System,” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA Facts, FS-2005-9-074-GSFC, pp. 1-6, 2005. [Online]. Available: https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/135642main_balance_trifold21.pdf [Accessed: May 24, 2025].
8. S. Rodat, and R. Thonig, “Status of concentrated solar power plants installed worldwide: past and present data,” Clean Technologies, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 365-378, 2024.

9. GEPA, April, 2025, “Sun,” Republic of Türkiye, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Türkiye Solar Energy Potential Atlas. [Online]. Available: https://enerji.gov.tr/gunes-bilgimerkezi [Accessed: April 30, 2025].
10. ETKB, April, 2025, “Elektric,” Republic of Türkiye, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Official Website. [Online]. Available: https://enerji.gov.tr/bilgi-merkezi-enerji-elektrik [Accessed: April 30, 2025].
11. P. A. Østergaard, N. Duic, Y. Noorollahi, and S. A. Kalogirou, “Recent advances in renewable energy technology for the energy transition,” Renewable Energy, vol. 179, pp. 877-884, 2021.
12. L. Yao, Y. Wang, and X. Xiao, “Concentrated solar power plant modeling for power system studies,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 4252-4263, 2023.
13. L. Sun, Y. Jiang, Q. Guo, L. Ji, Y. Xie, Q. Qiao, ... and K. Xiao, “A GIS-based multi-criteria decision making method for the potential assessment and suitable sites selection of PV and CSP plants,” Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 168, p. 105306, 2021.
14. Y. Noorollahi, A. G. Senani, A. Fadaei, M. Simaee, and R. Moltames, “A framework for GIS-based site selection and technical potential evaluation of PV solar farm using Fuzzy-Boolean logic and AHP multi-criteria decision-making approach,” Renewable Energy, vol. 186, pp. 89-104, 2022.
15. G. K. Singh, “Solar power generation by PV (photovoltaic) technology: A review,” Energy, vol. 53, pp. 1-13, 2013.
16. C. N. Wang, T. T. Dang, and J. W. Wang, “A combined Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Grey Based Multiple Criteria Decision Making (G-MCDM) for solar PV power plants site selection: A case study in Vietnam,” Energy Reports, vol. 8, pp. 1124-1142, 2022.
17. S. Di Grazia and G. M. “Tina Optimal site selection for floating photovoltaic systems based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA): a case study,” International Journal of Sustainable Energy, vol. 43, no. 1, p. 2167999, 2024.
18. B. Settou, N. Settou, A. Gouareh, B. Negrou, C. Mokhtara, and D. Messaoudi, “A high-resolution geographic information system-analytical hierarchy process-based method for solar PV power plant site selection: a case study Algeria,” Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, vol. 23, pp. 219-234, 2021.
19. S. Das, “Short term forecasting of solar radiation and power output of 89.6 kWp solar PV power plant,” Materials Today: Proceedings, vol. 39, pp. 1959-1969, 2021.
20. M. Makkiabadi, S. Hoseinzadeh, A. Taghavirashidizadeh, M. Soleimaninezhad, M. Kamyabi, H. Hajabdollahi, ... and G. Piras, “Performance evaluation of solar power plants: A review and a case study,” Processes, vol. 9 no. 12, p. 2253, 2021.
21. M. K. Saraji, D. Streimikiene, and V. Suresh, “A novel two-stage multicriteria decision-making approach for selecting solar farm sites: a case study,” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 444, p. 141198, 2024.
22. H. Z. Al Garni and A. Awasthi, “Solar PV power plants site selection: A review,” Advances in renewable energies and power technologies, pp. 57-75, 2018.
23. J. R. Doorga, S. D. Rughooputh, and R. Boojhawon, “Multi-criteria GIS-based modelling technique for identifying potential solar farm sites: A case study in Mauritius,”Renewable energy, vol. 133, pp. 1201-1219, 2019.
24. F. M. Lopes, H. G. Silva, R. Salgado, A. Cavaco, P. Canhoto, and M. Collares-Pereira, “Short-term forecasts of GHI and DNI for solar energy systems operation: assessment of the ECMWF integrated forecasting system in southern Portugal,” Solar Energy, vol. 170, pp. 14-30, 2018.
25. N. Mirzaei, “A multicriteria decision framework for solar power plant location selection problem with pythagorean fuzzy data: a case study on green energy in Turkey,” Sustainability, vol. 14, no. 22, p. 14921, 2022.
26. N. Caglayan, “The technical and economic assessment of a solar rooftop grid-connected photovoltaic system for a dairy farm,” Energies, vol. 16, no. 20, p. 7043, 2023.
27. Antalya Governorship, April, 2025, “Elmalı,” Antalya Governorship Official Website. [Online]. Available: http://antalya.gov.tr/elmali [Accessed: April 30, 2025].
28. HGM, April, 2025, “City and District Area Measurements,” Republic of Türkiye, Ministry of National Defense, General Directorate of Mapping Official Website. [Online]. Available: https://www.harita.gov.tr/il-ve-ilce-yuzolcumleri [Accessed: April 30, 2025].
29. TÜİK, April, 2025, “Address Based Population Registration System Results, 2024,” Turkish Statistical Institute Official Website. [Online]. Available: https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95&locale=tr [Accessed: April 30, 2025].
30. E. Bölük, O. Eskioğlu, Y. Çalık, and S. Yağan, “Türkiye Climate according to Köppen Climate Classification,” Republic of Türkiye, Ministry of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, General Directorate of Meteorology, pp. 1-17, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.mgm.gov.tr/files/iklim/iklim_siniflandirmalari/koppen.pdf [Accessed: May 10, 2025].
31. Weather Spark, April, 2025, “Climate and Average Weather Year Round in Elmalı Turkey,” Weather Spark Website, [Online]. Available: https://weatherspark.com/y/95928/Average-Weather-in-Elmal%C4%B1-Turkey-Year-Round [Accessed: April 24, 2025].
32. GSA, March, 2025, “Frequently Asked Questions,” Global Solar Atlas Website. [Online]. Available: web site, https://globalsolaratlas.info/support/faq [Accessed: March 20, 2025].
33. A. Cavaco, P. Canhoto, and M. C. Pereira, “Procedures for solar radiation data gathering and processing and their application to DNI assessment in southern Portugal,” Renewable Energy, vol. 163, pp. 2208-2219, 2021.
34. M. K. Boutahir, Y. Farhaoui, M. Azrour, I. Zeroual, and El A. Allaoui, “Effect of feature selection on the prediction of direct normal irradiance,” Big data mining and analytics, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 309-317, 2022.
35. F. Sutter, M. Montecchi, H. von Dahlen, A. Fernández-García, and M. Röger, “The effect of incidence angle on the reflectance of solar mirrors,” Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, vol. 176, pp. 119-133, 2018.
36. J. Gulomov, R. Aliev, A. Mirzaalimov, N. Mirzaalimov, J. Kakhkhorov, B. Rashidov, and S. Temirov, “Studying the effect of light incidence angle on photoelectric parameters of solar cells by simulation,” International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 731-736, 2021.
37. F. J. Diez, A. Martínez-Rodríguez, L. M. Navas-Gracia, L. Chico-Santamarta, A. Correa-Guimaraes, and R. Andara, “Estimation of the hourly global solar irradiation on the tilted and oriented plane of photovoltaic solar panels applied to greenhouse production,” Agronomy, vol. 11, no. 3, p. 495, 2021.
38. I. M. Ibrahim, J. Belanger, A. S. Shehata, A. I. Shehata, and A. Davol, “Enhancement of photovoltaic power farms using a new power prediction approach,” International Journal of Energy Research, vol. 46, no. 4, pp. 4222-4246, 2022.
39. A. Sami, A. Hamdan, and S. Aljazzar, “Solar Farms, Sustainability and Mitigating CO2 Emissions: A Technological Approach,” In Technological Sustainability and Business Competitive Advantage, Internet of Things, M. Al Mubarak and A. Hamdan, Eds., Springer, Cham, 2023, ch. 28, pp. 473-505. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35525-7_29
40. C. K. Pandey, and A. K. Katiyar, “A comparative study of solar irradiation models on various inclined surfaces for India,” Applied energy, vol. 88, no. 4, pp. 1455-1459, 2011.
41. S. Pereira, P. Canhoto, and R. Salgado, “Prediction of Global Solar Irradiance on Parallel Rows of Tilted Surfaces Including the Effect of Direct and Anisotropic Diffuse Shading,” Energies, vol. 17 no. 14, p. 3444, 2024.
42. J. M. Sánchez-Lozano, J. Teruel-Solano, P. L. Soto-Elvira, and M. S. García-Cascales, “Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods for the evaluation of solar power plants locations: Case study in south-eastern Spain,” Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, vol. 24, pp. 544-556, 2013.
43. M. Sedrati, M. Maanan, and H. Rhinane, “PV power plants sites selection using gis-fahp based approach in north-western Morocco,” The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, vol. 42, pp. 385-392, 2019.
44. M. Barzehkar, K. E. Parnell, N. Mobarghaee Dinan, and G. Brodie, “Decision support tools for wind and solar farm site selection in Isfahan Province, Iran,” Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, vol. 23, pp. 1179-1195, 2021.
45. J. A. Prieto-Amparán, A. Pinedo-Alvarez, C. R. Morales-Nieto, M. C. Valles-Aragón, A. Álvarez-Holguín, and F. Villarreal-Guerrero, “A regional GIS-assisted multi-criteria evaluation of site-suitability for the development of solar power plants,” Land, vol. 10, no. 2, p. 217, 2021.
46. Q. Zhu, J. Chen, L. Wu, Y. Huang, C. Shao, G. Dong, ... and X. Li, “Changes in albedo and its radiative forcing of grasslands in East Asia drylands,” Ecological Processes, vol. 13 no. 1, pp. 1-15, 2024.
47. K. Ganesan, D. P. Winston, S. Sugumar, and S. Jegan, “Performance analysis of n-type PERT bifacial solar PV module under diverse albedo conditions,” Solar Energy, vol. 252, pp. 81-90, 2023.
48. K. Ganesan, D. P. Winston, S. Sugumar, and T. H. Prasath, “Performance investigation of n-type PERT bifacial solar photovoltaic module installed at different elevations,” Renewable Energy, vol. 227, p. 120526, 2024.