Structural Break Analysis in Beef Production of Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 5, 1111 - 1117, 31.10.2021

Nevra Alhas Eroğlu Mehmet Bozoğlu Abdulbaki Bilgiç Bakiye Kılıç Topuz Uğur Başer

https://doi.org/10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.812961

Cited By: 2

Öz

Although Turkey has significantly increased beef production in the last fifty years via livestock protection and domestic support policies, self-sufficiency and price stability has not been sufficiently achieved. Forecasting is essential to analyse the structure of the beef market and evaluate the sector. This study aimed to forecast beef production of Turkey by considering structural breaks. The data of the study was time series of beef production for the period 1961-2019 and it was obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute and, Food and Agriculture Organization. Data was analysed and forecasted using ARIMA Model. The results indicated that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best-fitted model and beef production would regularly increase in four years period and reach 1,133,687 tons in 2023. This research concluded that despite two structural breaks of beef production in 1983 and 2009, imports and domestic support policies substantially shaped the trend of beef time series in the last decade in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Time Series Analysis, Structural Break, Box-Jenkins, Beef Production, Turkey

Türkiye’nin Sığır Eti Üretiminde Yapısal Kırılma Analizi

Öz

Türkiye hayvancılığı koruma ve destekleme politikaları ile son elli yılda sığır eti üretimini önemli ölçüde artırmış olmasına rağmen, kendi kendine yeterlilik ve fiyat istikrarı konusunda yeterince başarı sağlayamamıştır. Sığır etinin tahmin edilmesi, sığır eti pazarının yapısını analiz etmek ve sektörü değerlendirmek için gereklidir. Bu çalışmada yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak Türkiye'deki sığır eti üretiminin tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Araştırmanın verileri Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu ve FAO’dan alınan 1961-2019 dönemi sığır eti üretim verileridir. Verilerin analizi ve tahmini ARIMA Modeli kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre ARIMA (1, 1, 0) modelinin en uygun model olduğu, sığır eti üretiminin dört yıllık dönemde düzenli olarak artacağı ve üretimin 2023'te 1,133,687 tona ulaşacağı öngörülmektedir. Türkiye'de sığır eti üretiminde 1983 ve 2009 yıllarındaki iki yapısal kırılmaya rağmen, ithalat ve yurtiçi destek politikalarının son on yılda üretimi önemli ölçüde şekillendirdiği ortaya konmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Zaman serisi analizi, Yapısal kırılma, Boz-Jenkins, Türkiye, Sığır Eti

Kaynakça

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