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Democratic Rollback in West Africa: Coup Contagion, Sit-tight Tyrants and Best Options for Regional Organisations

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 135 - 156, 31.07.2024
https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1461009

Öz

Unconstitutional changes of government (UCG) have resurfaced in West Africa, undermining decades of democratic progress. This article examines the effectiveness of intervention strategies by regional organizations, specifically the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in preventing democratic backsliding and mitigating military coups. Despite these organizations’ efforts, their strategies, including diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, and military threats, have often yielded limited success. The study investigates the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, highlighting the inconsistency in sanctions application and the internal divisions within ECOWAS that hamper effective intervention. Through a comprehensive review of recent coups in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon, the study explores the broader political and economic factors contributing to instability, such as corruption, weak institutions, and socioeconomic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that enhancing democratic institutions, promoting good governance, and enforcing strict term limits are crucial for long-term stability. This study aims to contribute to the development of more robust frameworks for safeguarding democracy in West Africa, offering recommendations for regional organizations, national governments, and international actors to address the challenges of democratic backsliding and coup contagion.

Kaynakça

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Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 135 - 156, 31.07.2024
https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1461009

Öz

Kaynakça

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  • Elischer, S. (2023, August 11). Military coups in Africa: here’s what determines a return to civilian rule. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/military-coups-in-africa-heres-what-determines-a-return-to-civilian-rule-211353
  • Eziakonwa, A. (2023). “Foreword” in Soldiers and Citizens: Military coups and the need for democratic renewal in Africa. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-07/undp-africa-soldiers-citizens-2023-en.pdf
  • Feaver, P. (1999). Civil-military relations. Annual Review of Political Science. 2(1), 211–241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.211
  • Fleck, A. (2023). A renewed wave of coups in Africa? Statista. https://www.statista.com/chart/30532/number-of-coups-per-year-in-africa/
  • Ford, N. & Versi, A. (2022, April 27). What is behind the spate of coups in West Africa? New African Magazine. https://newafricanmagazine.com/28086/
  • Freedom House. (2023). New Report: Freedom in Africa improved slightly in 2022 but challenges persist. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/article/new-report-freedom-africa-improved-slightly-2022-challenges-persist
  • Freedom House. (2019). Democracy in retreat. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2019/democracy-retreat.
  • Fund for Peace. (2021). Fragile States Index 2021. Fund for Peace. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/fund.for.peace/viz/fsi-2021-rankings/DashboardRankings
  • Geddes, B., Wright J. & Frantz, E. (2014). Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: A new data set. Perspectives on Politics. 12(2): 313–331. doi:10.1017/S1537592714000851
  • Handy, P. Akum, F. & Djilo, F. (2020). Censuring coups isn’t enough – African and international actors should tackle the poor quality of democracy and governance. ISS. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/what-causes-africas-coups-that-is-the-question
  • Harkness, K. A. (2022, February 9). Africa has had eight coup attempts in recent months. What’s behind the ‘coup epidemic’? Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/09/africa-has-had-8-coup-attempts-recent-months-whats-behind-coup-epidemic/
  • Hengari, A. (2017). Democracy in Africa: Reversing backsliding after ten years of the African charter on democracy. IFRI: Institut Français des Relations Internationales. L'Afrique en questions. 41(6). https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1406366/democracy-in-africa/2020632/
  • IIDEA (2017). Three decades of democratic transition in Africa: What are the dividends for citizens? Idea. https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/three-decades-of-democratic-transition-in-africa.pdf
  • Keili, F. L. (2008). Small arms and light weapons transfer in West Africa: a stock taking Disarmament Forum. Disarmament forum, 4, 5-11.
  • Kulkarni, P. (2023, August 3). People’s movements oppose West-backed military intervention by ECOWAS in Niger. Peoples Dispatch. https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/08/03/peoples-movements-oppose-west-backed-military-intervention-by-ecowas-in-niger/#:~:text=Several%20left%20and%20people’s%20organizations,Mohamed%20Bazoum%20to%20Niger’s%20presidency
  • Kuwali, D. (2022). Countering coups: Strengthening social contracts in Africa. The Raoul Wallenberg Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law. https://rwi.lu.se/blog/countering-coups-strengthening-social-contracts-in-africa/
  • Marinov, N. & Goemans, H. (2014). Coups and democracy. British Journal of Political Science 44 (4): 799–825. doi:10.1017/S0007123413000264
  • Matei, F. (2021). Mali: The hot and cold relationship between military intervention and democratic consolidation. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1882
  • Mbaku, J. M. (2020). Threats to democracy in Africa: The rise of the constitutional coup. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/threats-to-democracy-in-africa-the-rise-of-the-constitutional-coup/
  • Mbulle-Nziege, L. & Cheeseman, N. (2022). Coups in Africa: Why they don’t spell the end of democracy. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60289571
  • McMahon, R. B. & Slantchev, B. L. (2015). The guardianship dilemma: Regime security through and from the armed forces. American Political Science Review, 109(2), 297–313. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055415000131
  • Munshi, N. & Schipani, A. (2021, November 14). Failure of democracy’: why are coups on the rise in Africa? Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/a669c8e3-a744-445c-b613-9ff83059c90c
  • N’Diaye, B., Saine, A. & Houngnikpo, M. (2005). Not yet democracy: West Africa’s slow farewell to authoritarianism. Carolina Academic Press
  • Ndiloseh, M. & Hudson, A. (2022). The new model of coups d'état in Africa: Younger, less violent, more popular. International IDEA. https://www.idea.int/blog/new-model-coups-d%C3%A9tat-africa-younger-less-violent-more-popular
  • Obiezu, T. (2022). African analysts welcome ECOWAS peacekeeping force but skeptical of success. VOA, December 07. VOA News. https://www.voanews.com/a/african-analysts-welcome-ecowas-peacekeeping-force-but-skeptical-of-success-/6866389.html
  • Olukoshi, A. (2018). Political reforms and link with governance at a UNOWAS regional colloquium on challenges and prospects of political reforms in West Africa, Abidjan, 26-27 March. https://unowas.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/unowas_magazine_n6_-_eng_online.pdf
  • Onuah, F. (2022, December 5). West African leaders plan peacekeeping force to counter ‘coup belt’ reputation. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-african-leaders-plan-peacekeeping-force-counter-coup-belt-reputation-2022-12-04/
  • Papada, E. D., Altman, F., Angiolillo, L., Gastaldi, T., Köhler, M., Lundstedt, N., Natsika, M., Nord, Y., Sato, F. W. & Staffan I. L. (2023). Defiance in the face of autocratization, democracy report 2023. V Dem. University of Gothenburg, Varieties of Democracy Institute. https://v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf
  • Perez, E. E. (2021). The Africa file is an analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Critical Threats. https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-file/africa-file-coups-and-conflicts-benefit-autocrats-and-jihadis
  • PSC Report. (2023). Is the AU failing coup countries? ISS. https://issafrica.org/pscreport/psc-insights/is-the-au-failing-coup-countries
  • Rakner, L. (2019). Democratic rollback in Africa. Oxford research encyclopedia of politics. https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-887.
  • Ronceray, M. (2023). Can ECOWAS still defend democracy in West Africa after the Niger coup? ECDPM. https://ecdpm.org/work/can-ecowas-still-defend-democracy-west-africa-after-niger-coup
  • Sakor, B. Z., Sacko, M. & Soko, V. (2021). Military Coups d’état and Guinea’s rocky road to political stability. https://blogs.prio.org/2021/10/military-coups-detat-and-guineas-rocky-road-to-political-stability/
  • Santamaria, C. (2022). Why West Africa might see more coups. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.gzeromedia.com/why-west-africa-might-see-more-coups#toggle-gdpr
  • Sharp, A. (2023, August 4). Niger’s coup is West Africa’s biggest challenge yet. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/04/niger-coup-ecowas-military-intervention-mali-burkina-faso-nigeria-wagner/
  • Siegle, J. (2021). Africa’s coups and the role of external actors. ISPI, December 14. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/
  • Siegle, J. (2023). The Creeping Loss of African Sovereignty – Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/experts/creeping-loss-african-sovereignty/
  • Siegle, J. & Cook, C. (2021). Circumvention of term limits weakens governance in Africa. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/circumvention-of-term-limits-weakens-governance-in-africa/
  • Siegle, J. & Eizenga, D. (2021, September 17). Walking back the coup in Guinea. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/guinea-coup-has-left-west-africas-regional-body-with-limited-options-but-there-are-some-168092
  • Souaré, I. K. (2009). The AU and the challenge of unconstitutional changes of government in Africa. ISS Paper 197. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/105906/P197.pdf
  • Svolik, M. W. (2012). The politics of authoritarian rule. Cambridge University Press.
  • The Guardian. (2023, August 2). Military intervention in Niger is ‘last resort’, says West African bloc. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/02/african-bloc-to-meet-to-discuss-niger-coup-as-evacuations-continue
  • The Mo Ibrahim Foundation. (2023). 2022 Ibrahim Index of African Governance. Mo Ibrahim Foundation. https://www.wathi.org/laboratoire/choix_de_wathi/2022-ibrahim-index-african-governance-index-report-mo-ibrahim-foundation-january-2023/
  • The Punch. (2020, September 9) Africa’s unenviable record of sit-tight leaders. The Punch. https://punchng.com/africas-unenviable-record-of-sit-tight-leaders/
  • Théroux-Bénoni, L. & Kanté, A. (2023). New targets needed to manage West Africa’s military transitions. ISS. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/new-targets-needed-to-manage-west-africas-military-transitions
  • Thompson, G. (2023, August 7). Niger left in limbo as ECOWAS dithers on military intervention. France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230807-why-is-ecowas-hesitant-over-military-intervention-in-niger
  • Thurston, A. (2022). Burkina Faso coup: another example of the West’s military-first failures. Responsible Statecraft. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/10/05/burkina-faso-coup-highlights-failure-of-wests-military-first-approach%EF%BF%BC/
  • Thyne, C. L. & Powell, J. (2019). Coup research. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-369
  • Thyne, C. L. & Powell, J. M. (2014). Coup d’état or coup d’autocracy? How coups impact democratization, 1950 –2008. Foreign Policy Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/fpa.12046
  • Thyne, C. L & Powell, J. M. (2023). Global ınstances of coups from 1950-present. Jonathan Powell. https://jonathanmpowell.com/coups/
  • Transparency International. (2023). 2022 Corruption perceptions index reveals vicious cycle of corruption, violence and instability across Sub-Saharan Africa. Transparency International. https://www.transparency.org/en/press/2022-corruption-perceptions-index-reveals-vicious-cycle-of-corruption-violence-and-instability-across-sub-saharan-africa
  • USIP. (2022). U.S. and African leaders need to focus on democratization. USIP. https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/us-and-african-leaders-need-focus-democratization
  • Vasquez, J. P. & Powell, J. (2021). Institutional arsenals for democracy? The post-coup effects of conscript militaries. Armed Forces & Society, 47(2), 298–318. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X19871982
  • Zounmenou, D. (2020). Third terms for presidents of Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea must be stopped. ISS. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/third-terms-for-presidents-of-cote-divoire-and-guinea-must-be-stopped
Toplam 87 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Bölgesel Çalışmalar
Bölüm Derleme Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mike Omilusi 0000-0002-7201-9099

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 29 Mart 2024
Kabul Tarihi 5 Haziran 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Omilusi, M. (2024). Democratic Rollback in West Africa: Coup Contagion, Sit-tight Tyrants and Best Options for Regional Organisations. Lectio Socialis, 8(2), 135-156. https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1461009

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