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GELECEK DÖNEM NAKİT AKIŞI TAHMİNİNDE DÖNEM KÂRI VE NAKİT AKIŞI KARŞILAŞTIRMASI

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 54, 113 - 124, 01.06.2018

Hüseyin Temiz Merve Acar

Öz

Muhasebe Standartları Kurulu FASB tarafından firmaların gelecek dönem nakit akışlarının tahmininde tahakkukesaslı dönem kârının nakit akışların kendisinden daha güçlü bir tahmin edici olduğu değerlendirmesi yapılmıştır.Bu çalışmanın amacı firmaların gelecek dönem nakit akışlarının tahmininde dönem kârı ve dönem nakitakışlarının karşılaştırmasını yapmaktır. Bu amaçla BIST İmalat Sektöründe faaliyet gösteren firmaların 20052016 yıllarını kapsayan 1495 firma-yıl gözlem seti incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, dönem kârının gelecek dönem nakit akışlarının tahmininde dönem nakit akışlarına göre daha güçlü olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.Çalışmada yapılan ek analizlerden elde edilen bulgular da söz konusu sonucu desteklemektedir. Bu sonuç aynızamanda FASB değerlendirmesini de desteklemektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kâr Nakit Akışı Gelecek Dönem Nakit Akışı

Kaynakça

  • Aktaş, H. (2009). Hisse senetleri piyasasında muhasebe bilgilerinin önemi: İMKB’de değer ilişkisi analizi: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Aktaş, R. ve Karğın, S. (2012). Predictive Ability of Earnings and Cash Flows: Evidence from Turkish Firms’
  • Cash Flow Statements Prepared by IAS 7. Journal of Money, Investment and Banking, 25, 171-180. Arthur, N., Cheng, M. ve Czernkowski, R. (2010). Cash flow disaggregation and the prediction of future earnings.
  • Accounting & Finance, 50(1), 1-30. Baginski, S. P., Lorek, K. S., Willinger, G. L. ve Branson, B. C. (1999). The relationship between economic characteristics and alternative annual earnings persistence measures. The Accounting Review, 74(1), 105-120.
  • Bandyopadhyay, S. P., Chen, C., Huang, A. G. ve Jha, R. (2010). Accounting conservatism and the temporal trends in current earnings’ ability to predict future cash flows versus future earnings: evidence on the trade off between relevance and reliability. Contemporary Accounting Research, 27(2), 413-460.
  • Barth, M. E., Clinch, G. ve Israeli, D. (2016). What do accruals tell us about future cash flows? Review of
  • Accounting Studies, 21(3), 768-807. Barth, M. E., Cram, D. P.,ve Nelson, K. K. (2001). Accruals and the prediction of future cash flows. The accounting review, 76(1), 27-58.
  • Board, F. A. S. (1978). Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 1. Objective of Financial Reporting by
  • Business Enterprises. Bollerslev, T., Xu, L. ve Zhou, H. (2015). Stock return and cash flow predictability: The role of volatility risk.
  • Journal of Econometrics, 187(2), 458-471. Burgstahler, D. ve Dichev, I. (1997). Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of accounting and economics, 24(1), 99-126.
  • Chang, A. C.-C., Kumar, P. ve Sivaramakrishnan, S. (2006). Dividend changes, cash flow predictability, and signaling of future cash flows.
  • Cheng, C. A. ve Hollie, D. (2008). Do core and non-core cash flows from operations persist differentially in predicting future cash flows? Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 31(1), 29-53.
  • Cleary, S. (1999). The relationship between firm investment and financial status. The Journal of Finance, 54(2), 692.
  • Damodaran, A. (2016). Damodaran on valuation: security analysis for investment and corporate finance (Vol. ): John Wiley & Sons.
  • Dechow, P. M., Kothari, S. P. ve Watts, R. L. (1998). The relation between earnings and cash flows. Journal of
  • Accounting and Economics, 25(2), 133-168. Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G. ve Sweeney, A. P. (1995). Detecting earnings management. Accounting review, 193
  • Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G. ve Sweeney, A. P. (1996). Causes and consequences of earnings manipulation: An analysis of firms subject to enforcement actions by the SEC. Contemporary accounting research, 13(1), 1-36.
  • Finger, C. A. (1994). The ability of earnings to predict future earnings and cash flow. Journal of accounting research, 210-223.
  • Greenberg, R. R., Johnson, G. L. ve Ramesh, K. (1986). Earnings versus cash flow as a predictor of future cash flow measures. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 1(4), 266-277.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic econometrics: Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
  • Jones, J. J. (1991). Earnings management during import relief investigations. Journal of accounting research, 193
  • Kim, M. ve Kross, W. (2005). The ability of earnings to predict future operating cash flows has been increasing— not decreasing. Journal of accounting research, 43(5), 753-780.
  • Lang, L. H., Stulz, R. ve Walkling, R. A. (1991). A test of the free cash flow hypothesis: The case of bidder returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 29(2), 315-335.
  • Moeinaddin, M., Ardakani, S. ve Akhoondzadeh, F. (2013). Examination of the ability of earning and cash flow in predicting future cash flows. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research In Business, 4, 94-101.
  • Orpurt, S. F. ve Zang, Y. (2009). Do direct cash flow disclosures help predict future operating cash flows and earnings? The Accounting Review, 84(3), 893-935.
  • Skinner, D. J. (2004). What do dividends tell us about earnings quality. Unpublished working paper. University of
  • Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Sloan, R. (1996). Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash.
  • Takhtaei, N. ve Karimi, H. (2013). Relative ability of earnings data and cash flow in predicting future cash flows.
  • International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 3(1), 214.

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 54, 113 - 124, 01.06.2018

Hüseyin Temiz Merve Acar

Öz

It is assessed by FASB that earnings based on accruals are better predictor of future period cash flows than currentperiod cash flows. The aim of the study is to compare period earnings and cash flows in terms of prediction offirms’ future period cash flows. For this purpose, data covering the years 2005-2016 belonging to the firms operating in BIST Manufacturing Sector firms have been examined. According to obtained results, earnings arepowerful than current period cash flows in terms of prediction of future period cash flows. Findings from additional analysis in the study also affirm the conclusion above. This result also supports the FASB assessment

Anahtar Kelimeler

Earnings Cash Flows Future Period Cash Flows

Kaynakça

  • Aktaş, H. (2009). Hisse senetleri piyasasında muhasebe bilgilerinin önemi: İMKB’de değer ilişkisi analizi: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Aktaş, R. ve Karğın, S. (2012). Predictive Ability of Earnings and Cash Flows: Evidence from Turkish Firms’
  • Cash Flow Statements Prepared by IAS 7. Journal of Money, Investment and Banking, 25, 171-180. Arthur, N., Cheng, M. ve Czernkowski, R. (2010). Cash flow disaggregation and the prediction of future earnings.
  • Accounting & Finance, 50(1), 1-30. Baginski, S. P., Lorek, K. S., Willinger, G. L. ve Branson, B. C. (1999). The relationship between economic characteristics and alternative annual earnings persistence measures. The Accounting Review, 74(1), 105-120.
  • Bandyopadhyay, S. P., Chen, C., Huang, A. G. ve Jha, R. (2010). Accounting conservatism and the temporal trends in current earnings’ ability to predict future cash flows versus future earnings: evidence on the trade off between relevance and reliability. Contemporary Accounting Research, 27(2), 413-460.
  • Barth, M. E., Clinch, G. ve Israeli, D. (2016). What do accruals tell us about future cash flows? Review of
  • Accounting Studies, 21(3), 768-807. Barth, M. E., Cram, D. P.,ve Nelson, K. K. (2001). Accruals and the prediction of future cash flows. The accounting review, 76(1), 27-58.
  • Board, F. A. S. (1978). Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 1. Objective of Financial Reporting by
  • Business Enterprises. Bollerslev, T., Xu, L. ve Zhou, H. (2015). Stock return and cash flow predictability: The role of volatility risk.
  • Journal of Econometrics, 187(2), 458-471. Burgstahler, D. ve Dichev, I. (1997). Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of accounting and economics, 24(1), 99-126.
  • Chang, A. C.-C., Kumar, P. ve Sivaramakrishnan, S. (2006). Dividend changes, cash flow predictability, and signaling of future cash flows.
  • Cheng, C. A. ve Hollie, D. (2008). Do core and non-core cash flows from operations persist differentially in predicting future cash flows? Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 31(1), 29-53.
  • Cleary, S. (1999). The relationship between firm investment and financial status. The Journal of Finance, 54(2), 692.
  • Damodaran, A. (2016). Damodaran on valuation: security analysis for investment and corporate finance (Vol. ): John Wiley & Sons.
  • Dechow, P. M., Kothari, S. P. ve Watts, R. L. (1998). The relation between earnings and cash flows. Journal of
  • Accounting and Economics, 25(2), 133-168. Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G. ve Sweeney, A. P. (1995). Detecting earnings management. Accounting review, 193
  • Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G. ve Sweeney, A. P. (1996). Causes and consequences of earnings manipulation: An analysis of firms subject to enforcement actions by the SEC. Contemporary accounting research, 13(1), 1-36.
  • Finger, C. A. (1994). The ability of earnings to predict future earnings and cash flow. Journal of accounting research, 210-223.
  • Greenberg, R. R., Johnson, G. L. ve Ramesh, K. (1986). Earnings versus cash flow as a predictor of future cash flow measures. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 1(4), 266-277.
  • Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic econometrics: Tata McGraw-Hill Education.
  • Jones, J. J. (1991). Earnings management during import relief investigations. Journal of accounting research, 193
  • Kim, M. ve Kross, W. (2005). The ability of earnings to predict future operating cash flows has been increasing— not decreasing. Journal of accounting research, 43(5), 753-780.
  • Lang, L. H., Stulz, R. ve Walkling, R. A. (1991). A test of the free cash flow hypothesis: The case of bidder returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 29(2), 315-335.
  • Moeinaddin, M., Ardakani, S. ve Akhoondzadeh, F. (2013). Examination of the ability of earning and cash flow in predicting future cash flows. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research In Business, 4, 94-101.
  • Orpurt, S. F. ve Zang, Y. (2009). Do direct cash flow disclosures help predict future operating cash flows and earnings? The Accounting Review, 84(3), 893-935.
  • Skinner, D. J. (2004). What do dividends tell us about earnings quality. Unpublished working paper. University of
  • Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Sloan, R. (1996). Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash.
  • Takhtaei, N. ve Karimi, H. (2013). Relative ability of earnings data and cash flow in predicting future cash flows.
  • International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 3(1), 214.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Hüseyin Temiz Bu kişi benim

Merve Acar Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 18 Sayı: 54

Kaynak Göster

APA Temiz, H., & Acar, M. (2018). GELECEK DÖNEM NAKİT AKIŞI TAHMİNİNDE DÖNEM KÂRI VE NAKİT AKIŞI KARŞILAŞTIRMASI. Muhasebe Ve Denetime Bakış, 18(54), 113-124.