ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi 2980-0870 Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Growth Regional Economy Public Economy Büyüme Bölgesel Ekonomi Kamu Ekonomisi Türkiye’de kamu eğitim harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin incelenmesi: İl düzeyinde bir analiz An investigation of causal relationship between public education expenditures and economic growth in Turkiye: Evidence from provincial level analysis https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5876-2241 Çelen Mustafa MARMARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9998-5334 Çağlayan Akay Ebru MARMARA ÜNİVERSİTESİ https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4105-709X Yılmaz Serdar WORLD BANK 06 30 2025 52 1 203 237 09 04 2024 04 30 2025 Copyright © 2020, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi 2020 ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de il düzeyinde kamu eğitim harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini, 2009–2021 dönemini kapsayan yıllık panel verileri kullanarak incelemektedir. Temel bulgu, ekonomik büyüme ile kamu eğitim harcamaları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin heterojen olduğunu; bir ilden diğerine değişiklik gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Toplam kamu eğitim harcamaları, ilköğretim ve ortaöğretim harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çoğu ilde bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamakla birlikte, 81 ilin 41’inde yükseköğretim harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi gözlemlenmiştir.

This paper investigates the causal relationship between educational expenditures and economic growth in Turkiye at the provincial level by using annual panel data covering the period 2009-2021. The main finding suggests that the causal relationship between economic growth and public education spending is heterogenous: it varies from one province to the other. Although there is no causal relationship between total and primary and secondary education expenditures and economic growth in a majority of provinces, there is a unidirectional causal relationship between higher education expenditures and economic growth in 41 out of 81 provinces.

 Panel causality Public education expenditures Provincial level economic growth Provincial level public education expenditures Panel nedensellik Kamu eğitim harcamaları İl düzeyinde ekonomik büyüme il düzeyinde kamu eğitim harcamaları References AFSAR, M. (2009), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9 (1), 85-98. https://www.ajindex.com/dosyalar/makale/acarindex-1423869552.pdf ALTUNC, O. F. (2011), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye’ye İlişkin Ampirik Kanıtlar”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 18 (2), 147-157. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/yonveek/issue/13695/165751 AROCA, P., BOSCH, M. and HEWINGS, G. J. D. (2004), Regional Growth and Convergence in Chile 1960-1998: The Role of Public and Foreign Direct Investment, in AROCA, P. & HEWINGS, G. J. D. (eds.) Structure and Structural Change in the Chilean Economy, London, Weidenfeld and Nicolson. ARISOY, I. (2005), “Turkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi (1950-2003)’’, Turkiye Ekonomi Kurumu Tartışma Metni, 2005/15. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6379627.pdf BAĞDİGEN, M. ve BEŞER, B. (2009), “Ekonomik Büyüme ile Kamu Harcamaları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Wagner Tezi Kapsamında Bir Analizi: Türkiye Örneği”, ZKU Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5 (9), 1-17. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ijmeb/issue/54834/750730 BARRO, R.J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), 407-443. BARRO, R.J. and SALA-I MARTIN, X. (1992), “Convergence”, Journal of Political Economy, 100, 223-251. BARRO, R.J. and SALA-I MARTIN, X. (1995), Economic Growth, London: The MIT Press. BAŞAR, S., AKSU, H., TEMURLENK, M.S ve POLAT, O. (2009), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 13 (1), 301-314. BAYRAKDAR, S., DEMEZ, S. ve YAPAR, M. (2015), “Testing the Validity of Wagner’s Law: 1998-2004 The Case of Turkey”, Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195, 493-500. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042815037301 BLANKEANU, W.F., (2005), “Public Schooling, College Subsidies and Growth” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29, 487-507. BREITUNG, J. (2005), “A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data”, Econometric Reviews, 24, 151-173. BREUSCH, T.S. and PAGAN, A.R. (1980): “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics,” Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-253. BUSEMEYER, M. R. (2007), “Determinants of Public Education Spending in 21 OECD Democracies, 1980–2001”, Journal of European Public Policy, 14 (4), 582-610. ÇELEBİOĞLU, F. and DALL’ERBA, S. (2010), “Spatial Disparities Across the Regions of Turkey: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis”, The Annals of Regional Science, 45, 379–400. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225527023_Spatial_Disparities_Across_the_Regions_of_Turkey_An_Exploratory_Spatial_Data_Analysis DORNBUSCH, R., FISCHER, S. and RICHARD, S. (2011). Macroeconomics (11th,). New York: McGraw Hill DUMITRESCU, E.I. and HURLIN, C. (2012), “Testing for Cranger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels”, Econ. Model, 29 (4), 1450–1460. EASTERLY, E. and REBELO, S., (1993), “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417-458. ECKSTEIN, Z. and ZILCHA, I., (1994), “The Effects of Compulsory Schooling on Growth, Income Distribution and Welfare”, Journal of Public Economics, 53, 339-359. FUJITA, M. and HU, D. (2001), “Regional Disparity in China 1985-1994: The Effects of Globalization and Economic Liberalization” Annals of Regional Science, 35, 3-37. GACENER, A. (2005), “Türkiye Açısından Wagner Kanunu’nun Geçerliliğinin Analizi”, D. E. Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 20 (1), 103-122. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/deuiibfd/issue/22754/242880 GLOMM, G. and RAVIKUMAR, B., (1997), “Productive Government Expenditures and Long-run Growth”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21, 183-204. GRANGER, C. W . J. (2003), Some Aspects of Causal Relationships, Journal of Econometrics, 112, 69-71. GRILICHES, Z. (1997), “Education, Human Capital and Growth: A Personal Perspective”, Journal of Labor Economics, 15 (1), 330-344. GÜL, E. ve Yavuz, H. (2010), “AB’nin Yeni Üyeleri ile Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1996-2008 Dönemi”, Maliye Dergisi, 158, 164-178. https://library.dogus.edu.tr/mvt/pdf.php GUPTA, S. (1967), “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Time-series Analysis”, Public Finance, 22, 423-461. HENREKSON, M. (1993), “Wagner’s Law—A Spurious Relationship?”, Public Finance, 46 (3): 406-15. IM, K. S., PESARAN, M. H. and SHIN, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74. KANCA, O. C. (2011), “Kamu Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi 1980-2008”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25 (1), 75-92. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/30345 KARAALP-ORHAN, H. S. (2020), “Regional Disparities in Turkey: A Socio-Economic Perspective”, European Journal of Sustainable Development, 9 (3), 103-115. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2020.v9n3p103 KEYNES, J.M. (1936), The General Theory of Interest, Employment and Money, London: McMillan. KOLLURI, B., PANIK, M. and WHAB, M. (2000), “Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Countries”, Applied Economics, 32, 1059-1068. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368400322110 KRUEGER, A. and LINDAHL, M., (2001), “Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?” Journal of Economic Literature, 39, 1101-1136. LALL, S. and YILMAZ, S. (2001). “Regional Economic Convergence: Do Policy Instruments Make Difference?” Annals of Regional Science, 35, 153-166. LEVINE, R. and RENELT, D., (1992) “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-country Growth Regressions”, American Economic Review, 82, 942-963. LUCAS, R., (1988) “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42. NORD, S. (1983), “On the Determinants of Public Education Expenditures”, The American Economist, 27 (2), 21-28. OKTAYER, A. (2011), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kamu Harcamaları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi: 1950-2009”, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 61 (1), 261-282. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuifm/issue/815/8904 PESARAN, M. H. (2006), “Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure”, Econometrica, 74, 967-1012. PESARAN, M. H. (2007), “A simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312. PESARAN, M. H., and YAMAGATA, T. (2008), “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142 (1), 50-93. PESARAN M.H., (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229; IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240. https://ssrn.com/abstract¼572504 REY, S. and MONTOURI, B. (1999) “US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Economic Perspective”, Regional Studies, 33, 143-156. ROMAR, P. (1986) “Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94 (5), 1002-37. ROSTOW, W. W., (1959) “The Stages of Economic Growth.” Economic History Review, 12, 1, 1–16. SARGIN, S., (2007) “Türkiye’de Üniversitelerin Gelişim Süreci ve Bölgesel Dağılımı”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3 (5), 133-150. Microsoft Word - 8.doc SAYGILI, H. and OZDEMIR, K. A., (2017), “Regional Economic Growth in Turkey: The Effects of Physical, Social and Financial Infrastructure Investments”, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Working Paper No: 17/16. http://wp1716.pdf (tcmb.gov.tr) SELEN, U. ve ERYİĞİT, K. (2009), “Yapısal Kırılmaların Varlığında Wagner Kanunu Türkiye İçin Geçerli mi?”, Maliye Dergisi, 156, 177-198. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/09/11.Ufuk_.SELEN_Kadir.ERYigiT.pdf SOLOW, R. M. (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-69. SWAMY, P. A. (1970), “Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 38, 311-323 SWAN, T. W. (1956), “Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation”, Economic Record, 32 (2), 334-361. TEMPLE, J. (1999), “The New Growth Evidence”, Journal of Economic Literature, 37 (1), 112-156. TSUNG-HAO, W., SHU-BIG, L. ve SHUN-JEN, H. (2016), “The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market: A Panel Data Analysis”, International Economic Journal, 30 (1), 109-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2015.1136668 TUNA, K. (2013), “Turkiye’de Wagner Kanunu’nun Geçerliliğinin Test Edilmesi”, İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 1 (3), 54-57. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/iicder/issue/31641/347013. WU, T. P., Liu, S. B., and Hsueh, S. J. (2016). “The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market: A Panel Data Analysis”, International Economic Journal, 30(1), 109–122. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2015.1136668. YILDIRIM, N., DENİZ, H. ve HEPSAĞ, A. (2011), “Do Public Education Expenditures Really Lead to Economic Growth? Evidence from Turkey”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 65, 12-24. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289212910_Do_public_education_expenditures_really_lead_to_economic_growth_Evidence_from_Turkey