ANALYSIS OF MARINE ACCIDENTS IN THE STRAIT OF İSTANBUL USING QUALITATIVE&QUANTATIVE METHODS

Abstract

The Turkish Straits are one of the most hazardous and crowded waterways in the world. This study has been performed to analyze the accidents occured in The Strait of İstanbul by using the statistical methods such as frequency distribution, Chi Square Test and Cramer’s V for the “right-side up” scheme period 1982-2018 and regression analysis, t and F tests for significance of regression model and Durbin Watson Test to test autocorrelation in residuals between the years 1982 and 2003. In the study, traffic of the Strait of İstanbul and literatüre have been reviewed and literature review has been conducted. The results of the analysis have given as follows;the cargo ships were the most involvedin the accident; accidents are mostly collision and respectively grounding; themost accident has been occured in the hours 20:00-24:00 and main reason of accidents is human error  in the Strait of İstanbul. There is a moderate level of statistical relationship between the type of ship involved in the accident. and type of the accident;the independent variables given in the regression model increase estimated accident rate in the Strait of İstanbul. High value R-squared value (R²=0.997) indicates that the model fits the data well by the independent variables. At the conclusion of the study further suggestions are proposed to provide safety of environmment and navigation and the Strait of İstanbul.

Keywords

• The Strait of İstanbul,Marine Accidents,Accident Analysis,Collision,Maritime Pilot

References

1. Akdi, Y. (2003)., Zaman Serileri Analizi, Bıçaklar Kitabevi, Yayın No:4, Ankara.
2. Akten, N. (2003) “The Strait of İstanbul (Strait of İstanbul): The seaway separating the continents with its dense shipping traffic”, Turkish Journal of Marine Sciences, , Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 241.
3. Akten, N. (2006).“Shipping accidents: a serious threat for marine environment, J. Black Sea/Mediterranean Environment, Vol. 12, pp. 269-304.
4. Baş, M. (1999).Türk Boğazları’nda Risk Analizi ile Güvenli Seyir Modeli, Doktora Tezi, T.C. İstanbul Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
5. Birpinar, M.E., Talu, G.F. And Gönençgil, B. (2008). “Environmental Effects Of Maritime Traffic On The İstanbul Strait”, Environmental Monitoring And Assessment, VOL. 152, PP.13.
6. Çekerel K. ve Gürbüz H. (2005). “Reel döviz Kuru Değişimleri ile Sektörel Dış Ticaret Fiyatları Arasındaki Uzun Dönem İlişki”, http://www.econturk.org/Turkiyeekonomisi/odtu_kamil.pdf[Accessed 06 June 2005].
7. Dickey D.A. and Fuller W.A.. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica. Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 1057-1072.
8. Directorate of General Coastal Safety, https://www.kiyiemniyeti.gov.tr/vessel_traffic_and_pilotage_services . [Accessed 18 October, 20].

9. Ece, N. J. (2005). The accident analysis of the Strait of Istanbul from the points of navigation andenvironment and evaluation of innocent passage. PhD Thesis, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey.
10. Ece, N.J. (2012). “Analysis Of Ship Accidents In The Strait Of İstanbul”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversity, Maritime Faculty Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp.1-25.
11. Ece, N.J. (2019). “Lessons Learned From the wreck of the Independența in its 40th year (40. Yılında İndependenta Kazasından Alınan Dersler)” Panel, Koç University Maritime Forum (KUDENFOR), İstanbul.
12. General Directorate Of Meteorology (2004). “Meteorological data for the Strait of İstanbul”.
13. Görçüna, Ö.,F. and Selmin, Z.B. (2016). “Formal Safety Assessment for Ship Traffic in the Istanbul Straits”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, pp. 207: 255.
14. Johnston, J. and Dinardo, J. (1997). Econometric Methods, Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation, Testing for Autocorrelatde Disturbances, McGraw-Hill, Fourth edition, Singapure.
15. Koldemir, B. (2009). “Determination Of Risky Regions In Strait Of Istanbul From The Aspect Of Navigational Safety; Updating Of The Accident Black Points”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversity, Maritime Faculty Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp.22.
16. Kornhauster, A.L., Clark W.A. (1995). “Quantitative Forecast of Vessel Casualties resulting from Additional Oil Tanker Traffic Through the Bosporus”, ALK Associates Inc. Princeton, NJ, England, pp. 15-17, 3, 25-26, 38, 40, 42-45.
17. Köse, E., Başar E,; Demirci, E.; Güneroğlu, A., Erkebay, Ş. (2003) Simulation of maritime traffic in İstanbul Strait, Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory, Vol. 11, pp. 606.
18. Republic Of Turkey Turkish Naval Forces Office Of Navigation, Hydrography And Oceanography, 2004.
19. The Republic of Turkey Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure of (UBAK) Main Search - Rescue Coordination Center(2019). General Directorate of Maritime Trade The Turkish Straits Vessel Traffic Statistics. http://aakkm.udhb.gov.tr/[Accessed 10 July 2019].
20. T.C. Başbakanlık Denizcilik Müsteşarlığı (Undersecretariat for Maritime Affairs) (2003). Seyir Güvenliği Daire Başkanlığı, “İstanbul Boğazı Deniz Kazaları İstatistikleri ve trafiği 2003-2004”, Ankara.
21. The F-Test For Linear Regression, http://facweb.cs.depaul.edu/sjost/csc423/documents/f-test-reg.htm[Accessed 10 Sept.2019].
22. Türk Deniz Araştırmaları Vakfı (TÜDAV). (2003). “İstanbul Boğazı Deniz Kazaları İstatistikleri”, İstanbul. Turkish Maritime Pilots Association, “List of Casualties Which Occured in the Strait of İstanbul During the Period 01/07/1994 to 31/08/2000”, http://www.turkishpilots.org.tr/DOCUMENTS, 1-10 (17.06.2004). [Accessed 06 June 2005].
23. Turkish Maritime Pilots Association /2004). “List of Accidents Occured in the Strait of İstanbul 1948-01.05.1982, http://www.turkishpilots. org./CASUALTY/accidents.html, [Accessed 06 Dec.2004].
24. Uçan, E. And Nas, S. (2015). “Analysing Istanbul Strait Maritime Pilot Capacity By Simulation Technique”. The Journal Of Navigation,Vol. 69, NO. 4, PP. 815-827.
25. Uğurlu, Ö, Erol, S. and Başar, E. (2015). “The analysis of life safety and economic loss in marine accidents occurring in the Turkish Straits”, Maritime Policy&Management, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp.356-370.
26. Ulusçu, Ö. S, Özbaş, B, Altıok T. ve Or, İ. (2009). “Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of İstanbul”, Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No.10, pp.1454-1455, 1471.
27. Uriel, E. (2003). Hypothesis testing in the multiple regression model, Universidad de Valencia Version: file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Hp/Belgelerim/Downloads/4Hypothesistestinginthemultipleregressionmodel.pdf [Accessed 06June 2003].
28. Yazıcı M A, Otay E N. (2009) A Navigation Safety Support Model for the Strait of İstanbul, Journal of Navigation, Vol 62, Issue 04, 609-630.
29. Yılmaz F. and Önaçan. M.B.K. (2019). A Qualitative Research on Developments in Autonomous Ship Technology and Effects on Turkish Maritime & Shipbuilding Sector. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Denizcilik Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(1):57-86.