A harmonic oscillator model of atmospheric dynamics using the Newton-Kepler planetary approach

Year 2023, , 216 - 233, 30.09.2023

Alexander Munson

https://doi.org/10.53391/mmnsa.1332893

Abstract

Projection of future meteorological patterns such as median temperature and precipitation are necessary for governments to facilitate civil aviation, forecast agricultural productions, and advise future public energy policies. Various models were proposed based on historical data such as the short-term 7-day forecast or the long-term Global Forecast System to study climate change over the coming decades. We strike a balance by examining the harmonic oscillator model in mid-term weather projections. This model is the starting point to provide general mathematical guidelines to inform governmental agencies to forecast levels of energy consumptions for residential cooling in summer and heating in winter to provide energy subsidies for low-income populations and for non-profit organizations to support countries needing energy assistance. Additionally, mid-term meteorological models are especially useful during time of global energy disruptions. A model is derived based on orbital mechanics, planetary science, and astronomy using Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation and Kepler’s Laws of Planetary Motions. We optimize the model with historical data on a specific region. The model’s predictions were then statistically compared with the actual data in the same time period in the region in a reverse goodness of fit test. We also gave certain directions on the generalized harmonic oscillator model in the future. In sum, the current harmonic oscillator method can be beneficially utilized by governments to forecast natural phenomena in order to provide timely assistance to respective populations such as in the control of infectious diseases or predicting extreme temperature fluctuations in the planning of agricultural productions.

Keywords

Harmonic oscillators, Newton’s law of gravitation, Kepler’s laws of planetary motion, orbital mechanics

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