Mathematical modelling of the impact of vaccination, treatment and media awareness on the hepatitis B epidemic in Burkina Faso

Abstract

Infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a global public health issue. Particularly in Burkina Faso, HBV is a major public health concern due to its high prevalence and associated mortality. However, universal vaccination, treatment of chronic carriers, and awareness campaigns are currently employed means in Burkina Faso to combat the spread of HBV. Therefore, this paper aims to study the impact of these control measures on the expansion of this virus. This paper presents a mathematical model of vertically transmitted HBV that takes into account the progression to chronicity as a function of the age of the infected person, as well as vaccination, treatment of chronic carriers, and media awareness. After formulating the model and carrying out the mathematical analysis, we simulated the proposed model in Matlab, taking into account the various involved parameters. Finally, we presented the results of sensitivity analysis and numerical simulation. According to our model, with vaccination coverage of $30\%$, a $50\%$ success rate of awareness campaigns and $20\%$ effectiveness for the $10\%$ of treated chronic carriers, the prevalence of hepatitis B infection could decrease down to $2\%$ within thirty years in Burkina Faso.

Keywords

• Hepatitis B
• effective reproduction number
• sensitivity analysis
• vaccination

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