FİNANSAL BAŞARISIZLIĞI BELİRLEYEN ETKENLER: TÜRKİYE İMALAT SEKTÖRÜ ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 2, 181 - 207, 11.01.2019

Arhan Sabri Ertan , Ömer Ersan

Öz

Bu çalışma 2000–2014 yılları arasında Borsa İstanbul’da işlem görmüş olan 208 imalat sektörü işletmesi için finansal başarısızlık riski üzerinde etkili olan faktörleri belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizlerde işletmelere özgü finansal oranlar ve kurumsal yönetim ile ilgili değişkenlere ek olarak finansal piyasalar, makroekonomi ve küresel ekonomi ile ilgili göstergeler de göz önüne alınmıştır. Ampirik tahmin yöntemleri olarak yarı parametrik (Cox orantılı riskler) ve parametrik (panel probit, panel logit, tamamlayıcı log-log, log-logistic) sağ kalım ve panel rastsal etkiler yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre Cox orantılı riskler yöntemi, işlem karakteristiği eğrileri, başarı ve hata (tip-1 ve tip-2) oranları açısından kıyaslanan yöntemler arasında en yüksek başarıyı elde etmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşletme başarısızlığı, finansal gerilim, sağ kalım analizi

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