Climatic Trends in the Temperature of Çanakkale City, Turkey

Year 2017, , 14 - 27, 30.10.2017

Semih Kale

https://doi.org/10.28978/nesciences.348449

Cited By: 16

Abstract

Climate is a dynamic process changing in both temporal and spatial scales. Climate change and global warming has been extensively accepted and commonly described as rising of the temperature. Long-term trends and changes in the series of monthly, seasonal and annual temperature of Çanakkale station (Çanakkale, Turkey) of Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) were analyzed by considering temporal characteristics. Climatic data for temperature encompasses the period of between 1970 and 2012. Temperature data set has been arranged as climatological seasons that spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November), and winter (December, January, February). Non-parametric tests and Box-Jenkins method were used to determine climatic trends. Pettitt change-point analysis was applied for determining the change point of temperature dataset. Results of trend analysis revealed that there was a statistically significant increasing trend in the temperature. Mean annual temperature is predicted to increase 0.02977°C per year and it is forecasted to reach 15.9946°C in 2022. On the other hand, mean seasonal temperatures are predicted to increase 0.0121°C, 0.05877°C, 0.0350°C, and 0.0031°C per year for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The increase in temperature trends indicates that global warming is causing to climate change. In light of the results, it is crucial to state that Çanakkale city will be affected by global warming and climate change, and also will have a warmer climate in the future.

Keywords

Climate change, Change-point analysis, Temperature, Trend analysis

References

• Aksoy, H. (2007). Hydrological variability of the European part of Turkey. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transaction B, Engineering, 31(B2), 225-236.
• Aksoy, H., Unal, N. E., Alexandrov, V., Dakova, S., & Yoon, J. (2007). Hydrometeorological analysis of northwestern Turkey with links to climate change. International Journal of Climatology, 28(8), 1047–1060.
• Alcamo, J., Moreno, J. M., Nováky, B., Bindi, M., Corobov, R., Devoy, R. J. N., Giannakopoulos, C., Martin, E., Olesen, J. E., & Shvidenko, A. (2007). Europe. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. Palutikof, P. van der Linden & C. Hanson (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 541-580). Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.
• Arnell, N. W. (2003). Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 7(5), 619-641.
• Bates, B. C., Chandler, R. E., & Bowman, A. W. (2012). Trend estimation and change point detection in individual climatic series using flexible regression methods. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117(D16).
• Beaulieu, C., Chen, J., & Sarmiento, J. L. (2012). Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 370(1962), 1228-1249.
• Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden Day.
• Cengiz, T., & Akbulak, C. (2009). Application of analytical hierarchy process and geographic information systems in land-use suitability evaluation: a case study of Dümrek village (Çanakkale, Turkey). International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 16(4), 286-294.
• Chen, J., & Gupta, A. K. (2012). Parametric Statistical Change Point Analysis: With Applications to Genetics, Medicine, and Finance. Boston, Massachusetts, USA: Birkhäuser Boston.
• Chen, Y., & Xu, Z. (2005). Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 48(1), 65-73. DeGaetano, A. T. (1996). Recent trends in the maximum and minimum temperature threshold exceedences in the northeastern United States. Journal of Climate, 9(7), 1646-1660.
• del Río, S., Fraile, R., Herrero, L., & Penas, A. (2007). Analysis of recent trends in mean maximum and minimum temperatures in a region of the NW of Spain (Castilla y León). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 90(1-2), 1-12.
• Dhorde, A., Dhorde, A., & Gadgil, A. S. (2009). Long-term temperature trends at four largest cities of India during the twentieth century. Journal of Indian Geophysical Union, 13(2), 85-97.
• Dixon, M. D., Stromberg, J. C., Price, J. T., Galbraith, H., Freimer, A. K., & Larsen, E. W. (2009). Potential effects of climate change on the upper San Pedro riparian ecosystem. In J. C.
• Stromberg & B. Tellman (Eds.), Ecology and Conservation of the San Pedro River (pp. 57- 72). Tucson, Arizona, USA: University of Arizona Press.
• Durdu, Ö. F. (2010). Effects of climate change on water resources of the Büyük Menderes river basin, western Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 34(4), 319-332.
• Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016a). Effects of Climate Change on Annual Streamflow of Kocabaş Stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 11(4), 1-11.
• Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016b). Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(1), 7-11.
• Ertaç, M., Firuzan, E., & Solum, Ş. (2015). Forecasting Istanbul monthly temperature by multivariate partial least square. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 121(1-2), 253-265.
• Fealy, R., & Sweeney, J. (2005). Detection of a possible change point in atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and its effect on Scandinavian glacier mass balance. International Journal of Climatology, 25(14), 1819-1833.
• Feidas, H., Makrogiannis, T., & Bora-Senta, E. (2004). Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955?2001. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 79(3-4), 185-208.
• García-Ruiz, J. M., López-Moreno, J. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lasanta-Martínez, T., & Beguería, S. (2011). Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario. Earth-Science Reviews, 105(3-4), 121-139.
• Hamed, K. H., & Ramachandra Rao, A. (1998). A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1–4), 182-196.
• Haskett, J. D., Pachepsky, Y. A., & Acock, B. (2000). Effect of climate and atmospheric change on soybean water stress: a study of Iowa. Ecological Modelling, 135(2-3), 265-277.
• IPCC (Ed.). (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
• Jain, S. K., & Kumar, V. (2012). Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, 102(1), 37-49.
• Kadıoğlu, M. (1997). Trends in surface air temperature data over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 17, 511-520.
• Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016a). Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(2), 1- 6.
• Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O., & Mutlu, F. (2016b). Effect of Climate Change on Annual Streamflow of Bakırçay River. Adıyaman University Journal of Science, 6(2), 156-176.
• Karabulut, M., Gürbüz, M., & Korkmaz, H. (2008). Precipitation and Temperature Trend Analyses in Samsun. Journal of International Environmental Application & Science, 35, 399-408.
• Kendall, M. G. (1955). Rank Correlation Methods (2nd ed.). New York: Hafner Publishing Co. Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Können, G. P. (2003). Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe, 1946–99. Journal of Climate, 16, 3665-3680.
• Klein Tank, A. M. G., Wijngaard, J. B., Können, G. P., Böhm, R., Demarée, G., Gocheva, A., Mileta, M., Pashiardis, S., Hejkrlik, L., Kern-Hansen, C., Heino, R., Bessemoulin, P., MüllerWestermeier, G., Tzanakou, M., Szalai, S., Pálsdóttir, T., Fitzgerald, D., Rubin, S., Capaldo, M., Maugeri, M., Leitass, A., Bukantis, A., Aberfeld, R., van Engelen, A. F. V., Forland, E., Mietus, M., Coelho, F., Mares, C., Razuvaev, V., Nieplova, E., Cegnar, T., Antonio López, J., Dahlström, B., Moberg, A., Kirchhofer, W., Ceylan, A., Pachaliuk, O., Alexander, L. V., & Petrovic, P. (2002). Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment. International Journal of Climatology, 22(12), 1441-1453.
• Li, Y., Cai, W., & Campbell, E. (2005). Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall in southwest Western Australia. Journal of Climate, 18(6), 852-863.
• Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259.
• Mohsin, T., & Gough, W. A. (2009). Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 101(3-4), 311-327.
• Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change-Point Problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2), 126-135.
• Pohlert, T. (2017). Trend: Non-Parametric Trend Tests and Change-Point Detection, R package version 0.1.0 [online] https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=trend. (Accessed 02 August 2017). R Core Team. (2017). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria [online] https://www.R-project.org/ version (07/2017).
• Radziejewski, M., Bardossy, A., & Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2000). Detection of change in river flow using phase randomization. Hydrological sciences journal, 45(4), 547-558.
• Salarijazi, M., Akhond-Ali, A.-M., Adib, A., & Daneshkhah, A. (2012). Trend and change-point detection for the annual stream-flow series of the Karun River at the Ahvaz hydrometric station. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(32), 4540-4552.
• Sensoy, S., Demircan, M., & Alan, I. (2008). Trends in Turkey Climate Extreme Indices from 1971 to 2004. Paper presented at the Third International Scientific Conference on Water Observation and Information Systems for Decision Support (BALWOIS), Ohrid, Macedonia.
• Shrestha, A. B., Wake, C. P., Mayewski, P. A., & Dibb, J. E. (1999). Maximum Temperature Trends in the Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An Analysis Based on Temperature Records from Nepal for the Period 1971–94. Journal of Climate, 12, 2775-2786.
• Stafford, J. M., Wendler, G., & Curtis, J. (2000). Temperature and precipitation of Alaska: 50 year trend analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 67, 33-44.
• Su, B. D., Jiang, T., & Jin, W. B. (2006). Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin. China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 83, 139- 151.
• Sütgibi, S. (2015). Büyük Menderes Havzasının Sıcaklık, Yağış ve Akım Değerlerindeki Değişimler ve Eğilimler. Marmara Coğrafya Dergisi, 31, 398-414.
• Şimşek, O., Gümüş, V., Soydan, N. G., Yenigün, K., Kavşut, M. E., & Topçu, E. (2013). Trend analysis of some meteorological data in Hatay. SDU International Journal of Technologic Science, 5(2), 132-144.
• Tabari, H., Marofi, S., Aeini, A., Talaee, P. H., & Mohammadi, K. (2011). Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151(2), 128-136.
• Tabari, H., & Talaee, H. P. (2011). Analysis of trends in temperature data in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Global and Planetary Change, 79(1-2), 1-10.
• Tatlı, H., & Altunay, A. (2015). Investigation of Possible Climate Change Effects in Turkey by Mann-Kendall Trend Approach. Paper presented at the VII. Atmospheric Science Symposium, İstanbul, Turkey. 801-811.
• Tomozeiu, R., Busuioc, A., Marletto, V., Zinoni, F., & Cacciamani, C. (2000). Detection of changes in the summer precipitation time series of the region Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 67(3-4), 193-200.
• Turan, C., Erguden, D., & Gürlek, M. (2016). Climate Change and Biodiversity Effects in Turkish Seas. Natural and Engineering Sciences, 1(2), 15-24.
• Türkeş, M., & Acar Deniz, Z. (2011). Climatology of South Marmara Division (North West Anatolia) and observed variations and trends. International Journal of Human Sciences, 8(1), 1579-1600.
• Türkeş, M., & Sümer, U. M. (2004). Spatial and temporal patterns of trends and variability in diurnal temperature ranges of Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 77(3-4), 195- 227.
• Türkeş, M., Sümer, U. M., & Demı̇ r, İ. l. (2002). Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999. International Journal of Climatology, 22(8), 947-977.
• Türkeş, M., Sümer, U. M., & Kılıç, G. (1996). Observed changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 16(4), 436-477.
• Vincent, L. A., Wang, X. L., Milewska, E. J., Wan, H., Yang, F., & Swail, V. (2012). A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117(D18110), 1-13.
• Wijngaard, J. B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., & Können, G. P. (2003). Homogeneity of 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 23(6), 679-692.
• Yu, P.-S., Yang, T.-C., & Chou, C.-C. (2002). Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration from paddy fields in southern Taiwan. Climatic Change, 54(1-2), 165-179.
• Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., Kutaladze, N., Rahimzadeh, F., Taghipour, A., Hantosh, T. H., Albert, P., Semawi, M., Ali, M. K., Said AlShabibi, M. H., Al-Oulan, Z., Zatari, T., Al Dean Khelet, I., Hamoud, S., Sagir, R., Demircan, M., Eken, M., Adiguzel, M., Alexander, L., Peterson, T. C., & Wallis, T. (2005). Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110(D22104), 1-12.
• Zhang, X., Vincent, L. A., Hogg, W. D., & Niitsoo, A. (2000). Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere-Ocean, 38(3), 395-429.