2008-2022 Yılları Arasında Van İlindeki Net Göç Eğilimlerini Belirleyen Unsurlar: İstatistiksel Bir Yaklaşım

Öz

Türkiye'nin Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nde yer alan Van ili, bölgenin önemli bir göç merkezi olarak kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışma, çeşitli istatistiksel analizler kullanılarak 2008-2022 yılları arasında Van'daki göç modellerini incelemektedir. Çalışma, Van ilinin net göç örüntülerinin temel belirleyicilerini ve net göçü etkileyen faktörleri istatistiksel yöntemlerle belirlemeyi ve ilin gelecekteki göç eğilimlerini tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Veriler, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) ve diğer kurumlar tarafından sağlanan yıllık nüfus ve göç istatistikleri ile sosyo-ekonomik, demografik ve çevresel göstergeler kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Analizlerde tanımlayıcı istatistikler, korelasyon analizi, regresyon analizi, coğrafi bilgi sistemleri (CBS) analizi ve kümeleme analizi yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Çoklu korelasyon analizi, Van ilinin net göçünü etkileyen en önemli faktörler olarak nüfus artışı ve dışarıya göçü gösterirken, içeriye göç, ekili tarım alanları ve konaklama tesislerine gelişlerin net göç üzerinde orta düzeyde bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Çoklu doğrusal regresyon analizi, pozitif net göç artışının nüfus artış hızı, okuryazarlık oranı, sıcaklık, tarım alanları, hava kirliliği (PM10) ve yıllık ziyaretçiler ile ilişkili olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bununla birlikte bölgesel istihdam ise net göçü olumsuz etkilemektedir. Hiyerarşik küme analizi sonuçlarına göre 2008 ve 2013 yılları arasında benzer göç eğilimleri görülmektedir. Dışa göç ve turizmin 2014, 2015, 2016 ve 2018 yıllarında arttığı görülmüştür. İklim ve tarım açısından 2017, 2019 ve 2022 yılları benzerlik gösterirken, 2019 yılındaki göç örüntüleri diğer yıllardan farklılaşmıştır. Bu çalışmada, net göçü etkileyen faktörleri belirlemek için Van ilinden alınan iç göç verileri istatistiksel olarak analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, göç eğilimlerini daha iyi anlamak ve politikalar geliştirmek için önemli bilgiler sağlamaktadır. Model, gelecekteki il göç dinamikleri konusunda bölgesel planlamacılara ve karar alıcılara rehberlik edebilir ve politika kararlarını bilgilendirebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• göçün belirleyicileri
• İç Göç
• Net Göç
• Van İli
• İstatistiksel Analiz

Determinants of Net Migration Trends In Van Province, Türki̇ye From 2008 To 2022: A Statistical Analysis

Abstract

In Türkiye's Eastern Anatolia region, Van province plays a crucial role as an important migration hub in the area. This study examines migration patterns in Van between 2008 and 2022 using a variety of statistical analyses. The study aims to identify key determinants and affecting factors of net migration patterns of Van province with statistical methods and to predict future migration trends. The data were obtained using annual population statistics, migration movements, and socio-economic and environmental indicators provided by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and other institutions. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, regression analysis, geographic information systems (GIS) analysis, and cluster analysis methods were used in the analysis. Multiple correlation analysis (MCA) showed population growth and out-migration as the top factors influencing Van province's net migration, while also demonstrating in-migration, cultivated agricultural areas, and arrivals to accommodation facilities had a moderate impact on net migration. The multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis found positive net migration growth is associated with population growth rate, average temperature, in-migration and annual number of visitors. However, regional employment negatively impacts net migration. The hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) results showed similar migration trends between 2008 and 2013. Out-migration and tourism were observed to increase in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2018. While the years 2017, 2019, and 2022 exhibited climatic and agricultural similarities, the migration patterns differed in 2019 compared to the other years. This study statistically analyzes internal migration data from Van province to identify factors affecting net migration. The findings provide key insights to better understand migration trends and develop policies. The model can inform policy decisions by guiding regional planners and decision-makers on future provincial migration dynamics.

Keywords

• Internal Migration
• Net Migration
• Van Province
• Statistical Analysis

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