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            <front>

                <journal-meta>
                                    <journal-id></journal-id>
            <journal-title-group>
                                                                                    <journal-title>Nüfusbilim Dergisi</journal-title>
            </journal-title-group>
                            <issn pub-type="ppub">0259-6334</issn>
                                                                                                        <publisher>
                    <publisher-name>Hacettepe Üniversitesi</publisher-name>
                </publisher>
                    </journal-meta>
                <article-meta>
                                        <article-id/>
                                                                <article-categories>
                                            <subj-group  xml:lang="en">
                                                            <subject>Population Trends and Policies</subject>
                                                    </subj-group>
                                            <subj-group  xml:lang="tr">
                                                            <subject>Nüfus Eğilimleri ve Politikaları</subject>
                                                    </subj-group>
                                    </article-categories>
                                                                                                                                                        <title-group>
                                                                                                                        <article-title>The Post-2008 Pronatalist Rhetoric in Türkiye: There is No Robust Causal Effect on Actual Fertility!</article-title>
                                                                                                                                                                                                <trans-title-group xml:lang="tr">
                                    <trans-title>TÜRKİYE’DE 2008-SONRASI DOĞUM-YANLISI SÖYLEM: GERÇEKLEŞEN DOĞURGANLIK ÜZERİNDE SAĞLAM NEDENSEL ETKİ YOK!</trans-title>
                                </trans-title-group>
                                                                                                    </title-group>
            
                                                    <contrib-group content-type="authors">
                                                                        <contrib contrib-type="author">
                                                                    <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">
                                        https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0142-713X</contrib-id>
                                                                <name>
                                    <surname>Attar</surname>
                                    <given-names>M. Aykut</given-names>
                                </name>
                                                                    <aff>Hacettepe Üniversitesi</aff>
                                                            </contrib>
                                                                                </contrib-group>
                        
                                        <pub-date pub-type="pub" iso-8601-date="20241230">
                    <day>12</day>
                    <month>30</month>
                    <year>2024</year>
                </pub-date>
                                        <volume>46</volume>
                                                    <fpage>5</fpage>
                                        <lpage>26</lpage>
                        
                        <history>
                                    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="20240922">
                        <day>09</day>
                        <month>22</month>
                        <year>2024</year>
                    </date>
                                                    <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="20241115">
                        <day>11</day>
                        <month>15</month>
                        <year>2024</year>
                    </date>
                            </history>
                                        <permissions>
                    <copyright-statement>Copyright © 1979, Nüfusbilim Dergisi</copyright-statement>
                    <copyright-year>1979</copyright-year>
                    <copyright-holder>Nüfusbilim Dergisi</copyright-holder>
                </permissions>
            
                                                                                                <abstract><p>On March 8, 2008, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was the prime minister at the time, said that women in Türkiye should have at least three children. Since then, a pronatalist rhetoric has been sustained in Türkiye. Today, there is a large multidisciplinary social science literature on the post-2008 pronatalist rhetoric, but no study has investigated the causal effects of the rhetoric on actual fertility. To fill this gap in the literature, this paper investigates whether the post-2008 pronatalism in Türkiye did create any robust causal effect on actual fertility (the period Total Fertility Rate). The paper uses the synthetic control method to identify the causal effect associated with the post-2008 pronatalism. An inspection of population policies across the globe identifies 26 countries as potential donors for the synthetic Türkiye, and the predictor variables for actual fertility are GDP per capita, infant mortality rate, population density, and the share of young population (15 to 24 ages). Using the state-of-the-art methodological principles of the synthetic control method, the paper demonstrates that the post-2008 pronatalist rhetoric in Türkiye did not create any robust causal effect on actual fertility. From the viewpoint of optimal population policy, this paper underlines that the rhetoric only, i.e., without generous programs creating sufficiently strong incentives, would not even boost period fertility outcomes.</p></abstract>
                                                                                                                                    <trans-abstract xml:lang="tr">
                            <p>8 Mart 2008’de, o zaman başbakan olan Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye’deki kadınların en az üç çocuk doğurmaları gerektiğini söyledi. Türkiye’de, o günden bu yana, bir doğum-yanlısı retorik sürdürüldü. Bugün, bu 2008-sonrası doğum-yanlısı retorik hakkında geniş bir çok-disiplinli sosyal bilim literatürü bulunuyor, ancak hiçbir çalışma retoriğin gerçekleşen doğurganlık üzerindeki nedensel etkilerini araştırmadı. Literatürdeki bu boşluğu doldurmak için, bu makale Türkiye’deki 2008-sonrası doğum-yanlısı retoriğin gerçekleşen doğurganlık (dönemsel Toplam Doğurganlık Hızı) üzerinde sağlam bir nedensel etki yaratıp yaratmadığını araştırıyor. Makale, 2008-sonrası doğum-yanlılığının nedensel etkisini belirlemek için sentetik kontrol yöntemi kullanıyor. Dünya genelindeki nüfus politikalarının bir incelemesi sentetik Türkiye için 26 aday ülke belirliyor ve kişi başına GSYH, bebek ölüm oranı, nüfus yoğunluğu ve genç nüfus (15-24 yaş) oranı, gerçekleşen doğurganlığın açıklayıcı değişkenleri oluyorlar. Makale, sentetik kontrol yönteminin en gelişmiş metodolojik ilkelerini kullanarak, Türkiye’deki 2008-sonrası doğum-yanlısı retoriğin gerçekleşen doğurganlık üzerinde sağlam bir nedensel etki yaratmadığını gösteriyor. Bu makale, optimal nüfus politikası açısından, yeterince güçlü teşvikler yaratan cömert programlar olmadan sürdürülen retoriğin dönemsel doğurganlık çıktılarını bile yükseltmeyeceğinin altını çiziyor.</p></trans-abstract>
                                                            
            
                                                            <kwd-group>
                                                    <kwd>pronatalism</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  population policy</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  causal inference</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  synthetic control</kwd>
                                            </kwd-group>
                                                        
                                                                            <kwd-group xml:lang="tr">
                                                    <kwd>doğum-yanlılığı</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  nüfus politikası</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  nedensel çıkarsama</kwd>
                                                    <kwd>  sentetik kontrol</kwd>
                                            </kwd-group>
                                                                                                            </article-meta>
    </front>
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