Türkiye'de İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme Geçerli mi? İşsizlik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sektörel Analizi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 2, 469 - 486, 01.07.2025

Emre Akusta

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.1640550

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de istihdam yaratmayan büyümenin geçerliliğini sektörel düzeyde analiz etmektedir. 2000-2022 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak tarım, sanayi, inşaat ve hizmetler sektörlerinin işsizlik oranı üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Analiz kapsamında ARDL yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular FMOLS ve CCR yöntemleri ile sınanmıştır. Sonuçlar, tüm sektörlerde büyümenin işsizlik oranını azalttığını göstermektedir. Tarım sektörünün GSYH içindeki payındaki bir birim artış, kısa vadede işsizlik oranını 0.471 puan, sanayi sektöründe 0.680 puan, inşaat sektörünün 0.899 puan ve hizmetler sektöründe ise 1.383 puan düşürmektedir. Uzun dönem katsayıları, sektörel büyümenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkilerinin kısa döneme kıyasla daha güçlü olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Tarım sektörünün GSYH içindeki payındaki bir birim artış, işsizlik oranını uzun vadede 2.380 puan, sanayi sektöründe 4.057 puan, inşaat sektöründe 1.761 puan ve hizmet sektöründe 3.664 puan azaltmaktadır. Bulgular, Türkiye'de genel olarak istihdamsız büyümenin geçerli olmadığını göstermektedir. Aksine, ekonomik büyüme işsizliğin azaltılmasında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İstihdam yaratmayan büyüme , Sektörel büyüme , ARDL , FMOLS , CCR

Is Jobless Growth Valid in Türkiye? A Sectoral Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth

Öz

This study analyzes the validity of jobless growth in Türkiye on sectoral basis. It analyzes the impacts of agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors on unemployment using annual data for the period 2000-2022. ARDL method is applied within the scope of the analysis. The findings are tested with FMOLS and CCR methods. The results show that growth in all sectors reduces the unemployment. A one-unit increase in the share of agriculture sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 0.471 points, 0.680 points in the industrial sector, 0.899 points in the construction sector and 1.383 points in the services sector in the short-run. The long-run coefficients reveal that the impacts of sectoral growth on unemployment are stronger in the long-run than in the short-run. A one unit increase in the share of the agricultural sector in GDP decreases the unemployment rate by 2.380 points, 4.057 points in the industrial sector, 1.761 points in the construction sector and 3.664 points in the services sector in the long-run. These findings show that jobless growth is not valid in Türkiye in general. On the contrary, economic growth plays an important role in reducing unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jobless growth , Sectoral growth , ARDL , FMOLS , CCR

Kaynakça

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