Prediction of The Referendum Results According To People's Attitude Towards The Local Government

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 22, 823 - 839, 29.02.2020

H. Mustafa Paksoy Mehmet Özçalıcı B. Dilek Özbezek

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.639650

Öz

In recent years, the referendums play an important role in modern democracies. With the rapid changes in globalization, information and communication technologies and the increasing complexity of economic and social problems caused by intense competition, especially the referendums that are held to maximize the legitimacy of the decisions taken by the public will are seen as direct participation of citizens in the political process when traditional forms of political participation are declining. This study present a method to predict how citizen will vote in the referendum only by starting from their attitude towards local governments. For this purpose, a qualitative research was designed and 2446 voters were interviewed in Kilis Province Center of Turkey. In the study, Support Vector Machines, which is a nonparametric classification method based on statistical learning theory, was used to estimate the referendum results that would be voted as yes or no. At the end of the study, by using twenty-six variables, the rate of people voting in the referendum was predicted by 81%. This results guide the survey companies' efforts to predict the results of the referendum

Anahtar Kelimeler

Support Vector Machines, Referendum, Forecasting, Voting

Referandum Sonucunun Seçmenlerin Yerel Yönetime Tutumu İle Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Son yıllarda referandumlar modern demokrasilerde önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Küreselleşme, bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerindeki hızlı değişimler ve yoğun rekabetin meydana getirdiği ekonomik ve sosyal problemlerin giderek daha karmaşık hale gelmesi ile birlikte kamu iradesinin aldığı kararların meşruluğunu en üst düzeye çıkarmak için kullanılan referandumlar, özelikle geleneksel siyasal katılım azaldığı dönemde vatandaşların siyasi sürece doğrudan katılımı olarak görülmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı vatandaşların sadece yerel yönetimlere karşı tutumlarından yola çıkarak referandumda ne yönde oy kullanacakları tahmin edilmesi için bir yöntem ortaya koymaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda nitel bir araştırma tasarlanmış ve Kilis İl Merkez’de 2446 adet seçmene anket uygulanmıştır. Çalışmada evet veya hayır yönünde oy kullanılacak referandum sonuçları tahmin edilmesinde istatistiksel öğrenme teorisine dayalı parametrik olmayan bir sınıflandırma yöntemi olan Destek Vektör Makineleri (Support Vector Machines) kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonunda yirmi altı değişken kullanmak suretiyle, kişilerin referandumda hangi yönde oy kullanacakları %81 oranında önceden kestirilebilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar anket şirketlerinin referandum sonuçlarını önceden tahmin etme çabalarına yol gösterici niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Destek Vektör Makineleri, Referandum, Tahmin, Oy verme

Kaynakça

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