Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesindeki Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Şanlıurfa ve Mardin İllerinde Yatay Yüzeydeki Aylık Ortalama Küresel Güneş Radyasyonunun Tahmini

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’nde yer alan Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Şanlıurfa ve Mardin meteoroloji istasyonları için yatay yüzeye gelen aylık ortalama günlük toplam güneş radyasyonunu tahmin etmek amacıyla dört farklı ampirik model geliştirilmiştir. Modeller, Devlet Meteoroloji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü’nden (MGM) elde edilen güneşlenme süresi, bağıl nem, sıcaklık ve yerel enlem verileri kullanılarak oluşturulmuş ve bu modellerin yıllık değişimleri analiz edilmiştir. Her modele ait ampirik katsayılar en küçük kareler yöntemi kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Geliştirilen modellerin performansı altı farklı istatistiksel yöntem (R2, r, MSE, RMSE, MABE ve MAPE) kullanılarak değerlendirilmiş ve karşılaştırılmıştır ve daha sonra her bir istasyon için en uygun model belirlenmiştir. Buna göre, toplam güneş radyasyonu tahmininde Adıyaman ve Mardin istasyonları için sıcaklık ve bağıl neme dayalı regresyon modelinin (Model-2) ve Diyarbakır ve Şanlıurfa istasyonları için S/S0'a dayalı ikinci dereceden regresyon modelinin (Model-1) en yüksek korelasyon katsayısına (>%99) sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlara göre yıllık ortalama güneş enerjisi potansiyeli Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Şanlıurfa ve Mardin istasyonları için sırasıyla 12.70 MJ/m²/gün, 17.10 MJ/m²/gün, 16.10 MJ/m²/gün ve 18.03 MJ/m²/gün olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar modellerden elde edilen tahminler ile MGM’den ölçülen değerler arasında mükemmel bir uyum bulunduğunu göstermiştir. Böylece geliştirilen modeller, toplam güneş radyasyonu verisi bulunmayan benzer iklim koşullarına sahip alanlar, özellikle Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi'ndeki alanlarda, toplam güneş enerjisini tahmin etmek için kullanılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• toplam güneş radyasyonu
• güneş radyasyonu tahmin modelleri
• güneşlenme süresi
• istatistik

Etik Beyan

Bu makalenin yayınlanmasıyla ilgili herhangi bir etik sorun bulunmamaktadır.

Estimation of Monthly Average Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface Over Adiyaman, Diyarbakir, Sanliurfa and Mardin Provinces in Southeastern Anatolia Region

Öz

In this study, four different empirical models were developed to estimate the monthly average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for the meteorological stations located in Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Şanlıurfa, and Mardin in the Southeastern Anatolia Region of Türkiye. The models were established using sunshine duration, relative humidity, temperature, and local latitude data obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), and annual variations were analyzed. The empirical coefficients of each model were determined using the least squares method. The performance of the developed models was evaluated and compared using six different statistical methods (namely, R2, r, MSE, RMSE, MABE and MAPE) and then the most suitable model was determined for each station. The results indicated that it was found that the Model-2 based on temperature and relative humidity for Adiyaman and Mardin stations and Model-1 based on S/S0 for Diyarbakır and Sanliurfa stations had the highest correlation coefficient (>99%). According to the results obtained from these models, the annual average solar energy potential for the Adiyaman, Diyarbakır, Sanliurfa, and Mardin stations has been determined as 12.70 MJ/m²/day, 17.10 MJ/m²/day, 16.10 MJ/m²/day and 18.03 MJ/m²/day, respectively. These results showed that good agreement was found between the estimated from models and the measured values from TSMS. Thus, the four different models developed can be used to estimate total solar energy for selected areas with similar climatic conditions where global solar radiation data is unavailable, particularly areas in the Southeastern Anatolia Region.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• global solar radiation
• solar radiation estimation models
• sunshine duration
• statistics

Kaynakça

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