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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PUTIN-MEDVEDEV FOREIGN POLICY MAKING: SYRIA AND LIBYA CASE

Yıl 2021, Cilt 11, Sayı 2, 190 - 222, 30.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.31834/ortadoguvegoc.1009090

Öz

This article explains the shift in Russia’s foreign policy strategy towards the Middle East. Particularly, it aims to address the question of why Russia supported the UNSC Resolution 1970 towards Libya in 2011 but refused to cooperate with the West in Syria. In this article, it is argued that the West’s use of the authorization of the no-fly zone as a green light for military intervention in Libya paved the way for Russia’s obstinacy in Syria. To test this hypothesis, this article focus on the foreign-policy decision-making mechanism in Russia regarding these two events. In this article two decision-making processes are compared to provide an alternative explanation of Russia’s Middle Eastern policy. This article contributes to the existing literature on Russian foreign policy and Foreign Policy Analysis literature.

Kaynakça

  • Abdel-Baky, M. (2011). Libya Protest Over Housing Enters Its Thirt Day. Ahramonline. Avalilable at https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/4032/World/Region/Libya-protest-over-housing-enters-its-third-day.aspx accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Allison, G. (1969). Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis, The American Political Science Review, 63 (3), 689-718.
  • Armbruster, B. (2013) How We Got Here: A Timeline Of The Syria Chemical Weapons Saga. Thinkprogress. 28 August 2013 https://archive.thinkprogress.org/how-we-got-here-a-timeline-of-the-syria-chemical-weapons-saga-ead5d39642cc/ accessed from on 15.11.2021
  • Ataman, M. (2012). Suriye’de İktidar Mücadelesi: Baas Rejimi, Toplumsal Talepler ve Uluslararası Toplum (Report No. 6), SETA. Available at http://file.setav.org/Files/Pdf/20121126132435_seta-suriye_de_iktidar_mucadelesi.pdf accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Bremmer, I. and Charap, S. (2007). The Siloviki in Putin’s Russia: Who They Are and What They Want, The Washington Quarterly, 33 (1), 83-92.
  • Cadier, D. and Light, M. (2015). Conclusion: Foreign Policy as the Continuation of Domestic Politics by Other Means, In Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations, ed. D. Cadier and M. Light, (p. 204–216), Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Clunan, A. L. (2009). The Social Construction of Russia’s Resurgence Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests, Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press. Constitution of Russian Federation, Article 83, http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Duncan, P. J. S. (2013). Batman and Robin? Exploring foreign policy differences between Putin and Medvedev during the Medvedev presidency, CEPSI: Working Paper.
  • Ermath, F. (2009). Russian Strategic Culture in Flux: Back to the Future? In Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction, edited by Jeannie L. J., Kerry M. Kartchner, and Jeffrey A. Larsen, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Feinstein, S. G. & Pirro E. B. (2021). Testing the world order: strategic realism in Russian foreign affairs, International Politics, 58, 817-834.
  • Forsberg, Tuomas at all. (2014). Status and emotions in Russian Foreign Policy. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 47(3-4), 261-268.
  • Hermann, M. G. & Hermann, C. F. (1982). A Look Inside the Black Box: Building on a Decade of Research, In G. Hopple, Biopolitics, Political Psychology and International Politics, (pp. 1-36), New York: St. Martin's Press.
  • Hermann, M. G. & Hermann, C. F. (1989). Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry. International Studies Quarterly. 33 (4), 361-387.
  • Hermann, M. G. (2001). How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Framework. International Studies Review, 3 (2): 47-81.
  • Hermann, M. G., Hermann, C. F. & Hagan, J. D. (1987). How Decision Units Can Shape Foreign Policy Behaviors, In New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy ed. by J. N. Rosenau, Hermann, R. F. and Kegley, C. W., (p. 309-336), London: Allen Unwin.
  • Hill, F. and Gaddy C. (2013). Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, Washington DC: Brookings Institute.
  • Holsti, O. R. (1959). The 1914 Case, The American Political Science Review, 59 (3), 365-378.
  • Hopf, T. (2016). ‘Crimea is ours’: A discursive history. International Relations, 30(2), 227–255.
  • Janis, I. (1972). Victims of groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes, Boston: Mifflin.
  • Kanet, R. (2012). Russia in the new international order: Theories, arguments and debates, International Politics, 49 (4), 393-399.
  • Kropatcheva, E. (2012). Russian foreign policy in the realm of European security through the lens of neoclassical Perspective, International Politics, 49 (4), 30-40.
  • Larson, D. W. and Shevchenko A. (2010). Status Seekers: Chinese and Russian Responses to U.S. Primacy, International Security, 34 (10), 63-59.
  • Lavrov, S. (2013). Speech and answers to questions from the mass media by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during the press conference on the topic of chemical weapons in Syria and the situation around the Syrian Arab Republic, Moscow, 26 August 2013. http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/7426df843775abd244257bd500611d38!OpenDocument accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Leites, N. C. (1953). A Study of Bolshevism, Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corp.
  • Levy, J. Clifford and Shanker, Thom (2011). In Rare Split, Two Leaders in Russia Differ on Libya, NY Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/22/world/europe/22russia.html adresinden accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Libya opposition launched council (2011). Al-Jazeera. 28 February 2011. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/2/28/libya-opposition-launches-council accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Lynch, A. (2009). The Realism of Russia’s Foreign Policy, Europe-Asia Studies, 53 (1), 7-31.
  • Lynch, C. (2011). UN votes to impose sanction on Gaddafi, Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022603386.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Lynch, C. and Karen D. (2013). Britain, France claim Syria used chemical weapons, Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/britain-france-claim-syria-used-chemical-weapons/2013/04/18/f17a2e7c-a82f-11e2-a8e2-5b98cb59187f_story.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin, Foreign Affairs, 93 (5), 77-89.
  • Medvedev, D. (2011a). Executive order on fulfilment of UN Security Council Resolution 1973. http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/2703 accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Medvedev, D. (2011b). Prezident Rossii vystupilna otkrytii Vsemirnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma, Kremlin.ru, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/10163 adresinden accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Medvedev, D. (2011c). Utverzhdeno novoye Polozheniye o Sovete Bezopasnosti Rossii, President of Russia http://kremlin.ru/acts/11171#sel= accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Mintz, A. (2005). Applied Decision Analysis: Utilizing Poliheuristic Theory to Explain and Predict Foreign Policy and National Security Decisions, International Studies Perspectives, 6 (1), 94-98.
  • Morozov, V. (2015). Russia's Postcolonial Identity A Subaltern Empire in a Eurocentric World, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Putin, V. (2013). Otvetynavoprosyzhurnalistov, kremlin.ru, http://kremlin.ru/news/19113 accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Reder, J. M. (2013). The Medvedev Years: An Examination of the External Forces & Internal Dynamics Affecting the Kremlin's Foreign Policy Decisions, University of Hull. https://hydra.hull.ac.uk/assets/hull:7197a/content accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Renz, B. (2006). Putin's Militocracy? An Alternative Interpretation of Siloviki in Contemporary Russian Politics, Europe-Asia Studies, 58 (6), 903-914.
  • Ria Novosti. (2012, April). Putin says ‘dumbfounded’ over NATO operation in Libya. http://en.ria.ru/russia/20110427/163739739.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Ria Novosti. (2012, October). Putin condemns footage showing Gaddafi death. http://en.ria.ru/world/20111026/168144832.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Ria Novosti. (2013). Syrian Minister Rejects Chemical Attack Reports. http://en.ria.ru/world/20130825/182952149.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Rossiya 24 TV (2011). Russia’s Putin Warns Against ‘External Interference’ in North Africa, Middle East, World News Connection.
  • Security Council of Russia (2011). Deyatel’nost’. http://www.scrf.gov.ru/news/19/index5.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Shachtman, N. (2013). Exclusive: Intercepted Calls Prove Syrian Army Used Nerve Gas, U.S. Spies Say, Foreign Policy. http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/27/exclusive_us_spies_say_intercepted_calls_prove_syrias_army_used_nerve_gas accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Snyder, J. (1977). The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited Nuclear Options, Santa Barbara: Rand Corporation.
  • Solomon, J. and Spindle, B. (2011). Syria Strongman: Time for 'Reform, Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704832704576114340735033236 accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Stern, E. (2006). Contextualizing and Critiquing the Poliheuristic Theory, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48 (1), 105-126.
  • Toal, G. (2017). Near Abroad: Putin, the West and the Contest over Ukraine and the Caucasus, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Tsygankov, A.P. (2016). Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
  • The White House (2012). Remarks by the Presidentto the White House Press Corps. 20 August 2012. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/20/remarks-president-white-house-press-corps accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Yeltsin, B. (2010). ‘KonstitutsiyaRossii.’ ArkhivKremlina. http://archive.kremlin.ru/articles/ConstMain.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Yoon, S. (2013) Syria cemical weapons resolution passed by UN security council. Mint. 28 September 2013. https://www.livemint.com/Politics/7AktxpHaDnUunwfxO3jQ1J/Syria-chemicalweapons-resolution-passed-by-UN-security-coun.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Ziegler, C. (2012). Conceptualizing Sovereignty in Russian Foreign Policy: Realist and Constructivist Perspectives, International Politics, 49 (4), 400-417.

PUTİN VE MEDVEDEV’İN DIŞ POLİTİKALARININ KARŞILAŞTIRMALI ANALİZİ: SURİYE VE LİBYA ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt 11, Sayı 2, 190 - 222, 30.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.31834/ortadoguvegoc.1009090

Öz

Bu makale, Rusya'nın dış politika stratejisindeki Orta Doğu'ya yönelik değişimi açıklamaktadır. Özellikle, Rusya'nın 2011 yılında Libya'ya yönelik 1970 tarihli BMGK Kararını neden desteklediği ancak Suriye'de Batı ile işbirliği yapmayı reddettiği sorusunu ele almayı amaçlamaktadır. Makalede Batı'nın uçuşa yasak bölge yetkisini Libya'ya askeri müdahale için yeşil ışık olarak kullanmasının Rusya'nın Suriye'deki inatçılığının önünü açtığını savunulmaktadır. Makale, bu hipotezi test etmek için, bu iki olayla ilgili olarak Rusya'daki dış politika karar alma mekanizmasına odaklanıyor. Makalede iki karar verme süreçleri ve Rusya'nın Orta Doğu politikasına alternatif bir açıklama sunmak için karşılaştırılmaktadır. Bu makale, Rus dış politikası ile ilgili mevcut literatüre ve Dış Politika Analizi literatürüne katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abdel-Baky, M. (2011). Libya Protest Over Housing Enters Its Thirt Day. Ahramonline. Avalilable at https://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/4032/World/Region/Libya-protest-over-housing-enters-its-third-day.aspx accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Allison, G. (1969). Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis, The American Political Science Review, 63 (3), 689-718.
  • Armbruster, B. (2013) How We Got Here: A Timeline Of The Syria Chemical Weapons Saga. Thinkprogress. 28 August 2013 https://archive.thinkprogress.org/how-we-got-here-a-timeline-of-the-syria-chemical-weapons-saga-ead5d39642cc/ accessed from on 15.11.2021
  • Ataman, M. (2012). Suriye’de İktidar Mücadelesi: Baas Rejimi, Toplumsal Talepler ve Uluslararası Toplum (Report No. 6), SETA. Available at http://file.setav.org/Files/Pdf/20121126132435_seta-suriye_de_iktidar_mucadelesi.pdf accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Bremmer, I. and Charap, S. (2007). The Siloviki in Putin’s Russia: Who They Are and What They Want, The Washington Quarterly, 33 (1), 83-92.
  • Cadier, D. and Light, M. (2015). Conclusion: Foreign Policy as the Continuation of Domestic Politics by Other Means, In Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations, ed. D. Cadier and M. Light, (p. 204–216), Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Clunan, A. L. (2009). The Social Construction of Russia’s Resurgence Aspirations, Identity, and Security Interests, Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press. Constitution of Russian Federation, Article 83, http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Duncan, P. J. S. (2013). Batman and Robin? Exploring foreign policy differences between Putin and Medvedev during the Medvedev presidency, CEPSI: Working Paper.
  • Ermath, F. (2009). Russian Strategic Culture in Flux: Back to the Future? In Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction, edited by Jeannie L. J., Kerry M. Kartchner, and Jeffrey A. Larsen, Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Feinstein, S. G. & Pirro E. B. (2021). Testing the world order: strategic realism in Russian foreign affairs, International Politics, 58, 817-834.
  • Forsberg, Tuomas at all. (2014). Status and emotions in Russian Foreign Policy. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 47(3-4), 261-268.
  • Hermann, M. G. & Hermann, C. F. (1982). A Look Inside the Black Box: Building on a Decade of Research, In G. Hopple, Biopolitics, Political Psychology and International Politics, (pp. 1-36), New York: St. Martin's Press.
  • Hermann, M. G. & Hermann, C. F. (1989). Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry. International Studies Quarterly. 33 (4), 361-387.
  • Hermann, M. G. (2001). How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Framework. International Studies Review, 3 (2): 47-81.
  • Hermann, M. G., Hermann, C. F. & Hagan, J. D. (1987). How Decision Units Can Shape Foreign Policy Behaviors, In New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy ed. by J. N. Rosenau, Hermann, R. F. and Kegley, C. W., (p. 309-336), London: Allen Unwin.
  • Hill, F. and Gaddy C. (2013). Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, Washington DC: Brookings Institute.
  • Holsti, O. R. (1959). The 1914 Case, The American Political Science Review, 59 (3), 365-378.
  • Hopf, T. (2016). ‘Crimea is ours’: A discursive history. International Relations, 30(2), 227–255.
  • Janis, I. (1972). Victims of groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes, Boston: Mifflin.
  • Kanet, R. (2012). Russia in the new international order: Theories, arguments and debates, International Politics, 49 (4), 393-399.
  • Kropatcheva, E. (2012). Russian foreign policy in the realm of European security through the lens of neoclassical Perspective, International Politics, 49 (4), 30-40.
  • Larson, D. W. and Shevchenko A. (2010). Status Seekers: Chinese and Russian Responses to U.S. Primacy, International Security, 34 (10), 63-59.
  • Lavrov, S. (2013). Speech and answers to questions from the mass media by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during the press conference on the topic of chemical weapons in Syria and the situation around the Syrian Arab Republic, Moscow, 26 August 2013. http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/7426df843775abd244257bd500611d38!OpenDocument accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Leites, N. C. (1953). A Study of Bolshevism, Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corp.
  • Levy, J. Clifford and Shanker, Thom (2011). In Rare Split, Two Leaders in Russia Differ on Libya, NY Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/22/world/europe/22russia.html adresinden accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Libya opposition launched council (2011). Al-Jazeera. 28 February 2011. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2011/2/28/libya-opposition-launches-council accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Lynch, A. (2009). The Realism of Russia’s Foreign Policy, Europe-Asia Studies, 53 (1), 7-31.
  • Lynch, C. (2011). UN votes to impose sanction on Gaddafi, Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022603386.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Lynch, C. and Karen D. (2013). Britain, France claim Syria used chemical weapons, Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/britain-france-claim-syria-used-chemical-weapons/2013/04/18/f17a2e7c-a82f-11e2-a8e2-5b98cb59187f_story.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin, Foreign Affairs, 93 (5), 77-89.
  • Medvedev, D. (2011a). Executive order on fulfilment of UN Security Council Resolution 1973. http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/2703 accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Medvedev, D. (2011b). Prezident Rossii vystupilna otkrytii Vsemirnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma, Kremlin.ru, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/10163 adresinden accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Medvedev, D. (2011c). Utverzhdeno novoye Polozheniye o Sovete Bezopasnosti Rossii, President of Russia http://kremlin.ru/acts/11171#sel= accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Mintz, A. (2005). Applied Decision Analysis: Utilizing Poliheuristic Theory to Explain and Predict Foreign Policy and National Security Decisions, International Studies Perspectives, 6 (1), 94-98.
  • Morozov, V. (2015). Russia's Postcolonial Identity A Subaltern Empire in a Eurocentric World, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Putin, V. (2013). Otvetynavoprosyzhurnalistov, kremlin.ru, http://kremlin.ru/news/19113 accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Reder, J. M. (2013). The Medvedev Years: An Examination of the External Forces & Internal Dynamics Affecting the Kremlin's Foreign Policy Decisions, University of Hull. https://hydra.hull.ac.uk/assets/hull:7197a/content accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Renz, B. (2006). Putin's Militocracy? An Alternative Interpretation of Siloviki in Contemporary Russian Politics, Europe-Asia Studies, 58 (6), 903-914.
  • Ria Novosti. (2012, April). Putin says ‘dumbfounded’ over NATO operation in Libya. http://en.ria.ru/russia/20110427/163739739.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Ria Novosti. (2012, October). Putin condemns footage showing Gaddafi death. http://en.ria.ru/world/20111026/168144832.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Ria Novosti. (2013). Syrian Minister Rejects Chemical Attack Reports. http://en.ria.ru/world/20130825/182952149.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Rossiya 24 TV (2011). Russia’s Putin Warns Against ‘External Interference’ in North Africa, Middle East, World News Connection.
  • Security Council of Russia (2011). Deyatel’nost’. http://www.scrf.gov.ru/news/19/index5.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Shachtman, N. (2013). Exclusive: Intercepted Calls Prove Syrian Army Used Nerve Gas, U.S. Spies Say, Foreign Policy. http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/27/exclusive_us_spies_say_intercepted_calls_prove_syrias_army_used_nerve_gas accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Snyder, J. (1977). The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited Nuclear Options, Santa Barbara: Rand Corporation.
  • Solomon, J. and Spindle, B. (2011). Syria Strongman: Time for 'Reform, Wall Street Journal. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704832704576114340735033236 accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Stern, E. (2006). Contextualizing and Critiquing the Poliheuristic Theory, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48 (1), 105-126.
  • Toal, G. (2017). Near Abroad: Putin, the West and the Contest over Ukraine and the Caucasus, New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Tsygankov, A.P. (2016). Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
  • The White House (2012). Remarks by the Presidentto the White House Press Corps. 20 August 2012. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/20/remarks-president-white-house-press-corps accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Yeltsin, B. (2010). ‘KonstitutsiyaRossii.’ ArkhivKremlina. http://archive.kremlin.ru/articles/ConstMain.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Yoon, S. (2013) Syria cemical weapons resolution passed by UN security council. Mint. 28 September 2013. https://www.livemint.com/Politics/7AktxpHaDnUunwfxO3jQ1J/Syria-chemicalweapons-resolution-passed-by-UN-security-coun.html accessed from on 15.11.2021.
  • Ziegler, C. (2012). Conceptualizing Sovereignty in Russian Foreign Policy: Realist and Constructivist Perspectives, International Politics, 49 (4), 400-417.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Uluslararası İlişkiler
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALELERİ
Yazarlar

Muhammet KOÇAK (Sorumlu Yazar)
Florida International University
0000-0002-6448-9250
United States

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021, Cilt 11, Sayı 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Koçak, M. (2021). COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF PUTIN-MEDVEDEV FOREIGN POLICY MAKING: SYRIA AND LIBYA CASE . Ortadoğu ve Göç , 11 (2) , 190-222 . DOI: 10.31834/ortadoguvegoc.1009090