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‘SPARTA’ OR TROJEN HORSE? UNITED ARAB EMIRATES’ REGIONAL POWER STRUGGLE

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 224 - 267, 30.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.31834/ortadoguvegoc.988346

Öz

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has followed small state policies for decades, has experienced a significant change in its foreign policy behavior since the Arab Spring. The UAE which used to bandwagon the United States (US) and Saudi Arabia for decades has adopted a more pro-active foreign policy in the turmoil. It has been acting like a regional actor, ceasing to comply with the US when its interest is at stake and challenging the Saudi regional leadership when its threat assessment differs from Riyadh’s. The article will examine how it is possible for the UAE, which is a small state, to take an active stance in filling the vacuum created by the Arab Spring in the region. The regional security complex and the conjuncture of the UAE before and after the Arab Spring will be evaluated. The hedging option offered by the multipolarity to the small state policies and how the UAE used the hedging strategy in its regional activism will be evaluated.

Kaynakça

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‘SPARTA’ MI TRUVA ATI MI? BİRLEŞİK ARAP EMİRLİKLERİ’NİN BÖLGESEL GÜÇ SERÜVENİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 224 - 267, 30.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.31834/ortadoguvegoc.988346

Öz

Kurulduğundan beri küçük devlet politikaları izleyen Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri’nin (BAE) özellikle Arap Baharı süreciyle beraber dış politika davranışlarında önemli bir değişim yaşanmıştır. Daha önce dış politikada genelde Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) ve Suudi Arabistan’ı takip eden BAE, bölgede yaşanan çalkantı sonrası pro-aktif bir politika benimsemiştir. Çıkarları gerektirdiğinde ABD’den farklı tutum takınan, tehdit algıları farklılaştığından beri Riyad’a meydan okumaktan geri durmayan BAE, bölgesel bir aktör gibi hareket etmektedir. Makale küçük devlet kategorisine giren BAE’nin Arap Baharının bölgede yarattığı boşluğu doldurmada aktif bir tutum sergilemesinin nasıl mümkün olduğunu inceleyecektir. Bölgesel güvenlik kompleksi ile Arap Baharı öncesi ve sonrası BAE'nin içinde bulunduğu konjonktür değerlendirilip çok kutupluluğun küçük devlet politikalarına sunduğu hedging seçeneği ve BAE’nin hedging stratejisini bölgesel aktivizminde nasıl kullandığı değerlendirilecektir.

Kaynakça

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  • Krieg, A. (2020, Ekim 1). The UAE’s tilt to China. Middle East Eye website: http://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/why-security-partnership-between-abu-dhabi-and-beijing-growing adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Lim, D. J., & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia: Security Studies: Vol 24, No 4. Security Studies, 24(4). https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130
  • Lin, C. (2017). UAE’s Increasing Role in China’s Security Calculus. ISPSW Strategy Series: Focus on Defense and International Security, (478).
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  • Luhn, A., and Nicholls, D. (2019, Mart 3). Russian mercenaries back Libyan rebel leader as Moscow seeks influence in Africa.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/03/russian-mercenaries-back-libyan-rebel-leader-moscow-seeks-influence/ adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Macaron, J. (2020, Mart 18). The Muted Arab Attempt to Restore Influence in Syria. http://arabcenterdc.org/policy_analyses/the-muted-arab-attempt-to-restore-influence-in-syria/ adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Mackinnon, A., and Detsch, J. (2020, Kasım 30). Pentagon Says UAE Possibly Funding Russia’s Shadowy Mercenaries in Libya. Foreign Policy website: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/30/pentagon-trump-russia-libya-uae/ adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J., and Walt, S. M. (2016). The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy. Foreign Affairs, 95, 70.
  • Medeiros, E. S. (2005). Strategic hedging and the future of Asia‐pacific stability. The Washington Quarterly, 29(1), 145-167. https://doi.org/10.1162/016366005774859724
  • Miller, R., and Verhoeven, H. (2020). Overcoming smallness: Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and strategic realignment in the Gulf. International Politics, 57(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-019-00180-0
  • Organski, A. A. K. (1959). World Politics. American Political Science Review, 53(2), 587-587. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305540023325X
  • Özkızılcık, Ö. (2021, Kasım 23). The feasibility of the Turkey-UAE rapprochement, Trt World website: https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/the-feasibility-of-the-turkey-uae-rapprochement-51908 adresinden 20.12.2021'de erişildi.
  • Quilliam, N. (2020). The Role of External Powers: Global Actors (Part I), The Role of External Powers: Regional Actors (Part II). International Political Economy Series. The New Regional Order in the Middle East (e-book) 104-152. Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Ramani, S. (2019a, Ağustos 22). Outsiders’ Battle to Rebuild Libya Is Fueling the Civil War There – Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/22/outsiders-battle-to-rebuild-libya-is-fueling-the-civil-war-there/ adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Ramani, S. (2019b, Eylül 25). Russia Exploits the Saudi-UAE Divergence. LobeLog website: https://lobelog.com/russia-exploits-the-saudi-uae-divergence/ adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Ramani, S. (2020a). Russia and the UAE: An Ideational Partnership | Middle East Policy Council. Middle East Policy Council, 27(1), 125-140.https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12479
  • Ramani, S. (2020b). The Russian Role in the Yemen Crisis. Global, Regional, and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis 81-96. Cham.: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Ramani, S. (2020c, Ocak 24). Why the Relationship Between Russia and the United Arab Emirates is Strengthening. Responsible Statecraft website: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/01/24/why-the-relationship-between-russia-and-the-united-arab-emirates-is-strengthening/ adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Rauta, V., Ayton, M., Chinchilla, A., Krieg, A., Rickard, C., and Rickli, J.-M. (2019). A Symposium – debating ‘surrogate warfare’ and the transformation of war. Defence Studies, 19(4), 410-430. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2019.1680290
  • Rickli, J.-M., and Almezaini, K. (2016). Theories of small states’ foreign and security policies and the Gulf States. Almezaini, K. S., & Rickli, J. M. (Eds.) The Small Gulf States: Foreign and Security Policies before and after the Arab Spring. Taylor & Francis.
  • Rumer, E. (2019). Russia in the Middle East: Jack of all Trades, Master of None. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep21000.11 adresinden 20.03.2020'de erişildi.
  • Salman, M. (2017). Strategic Hedging and Unipolarity’s Demise: The Case of China’s Strategic Hedging. Asian Politics & Policy, 9(3), 354-377. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12330
  • Salman, M., Pieper, M., and Geeraerts, G. (2015). Hedging in the Middle East and China‐U.S. Competition. Asian Politics & Policy, 7(4), 575-596. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12225
  • Samaan, J.-L., Chalmers, M., and Angelis, E. D. (2019). Strategic Hedging in the Arabian Peninsula: The Politics of the Gulf—Asian Rapprochement: The Politics of the Gulf-Asian Rapprochement. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429289330
  • Salman, M., and Geeraerts, G. (2013, Eylül 25). The Impact of Strategic Hedging on the Foreign Politics of Great Powers: The Case of Chinese Energy Strategy in the Middle East. Program adı: China Goes Global Conference, Jacobs University Bremen, Germany.
  • Sherwood, L. (2017). Risk diversification and the United Arab Emirates’ foreign policy. Almezaini, K. S., & Rickli, J. M. (Eds.) .The Small Gulf States I Foreign and Security Policies Before and After the Arab Spring Almezaini, K. S., &
  • Rickli, J. M. (Eds.) Taylor & Francis.
  • Siddi, M., and Kaczmarski, M. (2019). Russia and China in the Middle East: Playing their best cards. Finnish Institute of International Affairs. https://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/russia-and-china-in-the-middle-east adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Sim, L.-C., and Fulton, J. (2020). Implications of a regional order in flux: Chinese and Russian relations with the United Arab Emirates. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2020.1800590
  • Sim, L.-C., and Fulton, J. (2018). External powers and the Gulf states. Routledge
  • Soubrier, E. (2016). Evolving foreign and security policies: A comparative study of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Almezaini, K. S., & Rickli, J. M. (Eds.) The small Gulf States: Foreign and Security Policies before and after the Arab Spring. Taylor & Francis.
  • Soubrier, E. (2021, Nisan 22). The UAE’s Message of Hope, Delivered With a Soft-Power Focus and Some Strategic Hedging. https://agsiw.org/the-uaes-message-of-hope-delivered-with-a-soft-power-focus-and-some-strategic-hedging/ adresinden 20.04.2021'de erişildi.
  • Steinberg, G. (2020). Regional Power United Arab Emirates: Abu Dhabi Is No Longer Saudi Arabia’s Junior Partner. Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik, 35. https://doi.org/10.18449/2020RP10
  • Tessman, B. F. (2012). System Structure and State Strategy: Adding Hedging to the Menu. Security Studies, 21(2), 192-231. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2012.679203
  • Tessman, B., & Wolfe, W. (2011). Great Powers and Strategic Hedging: The Case of Chinese Energy Security Strategy. International Studies Review, 13(2), 214-240. The Chinese government. (2016, Ocak 14). Full text of China’s Arab Policy Paper [Organization]. China.org.cn website: http://www.china.org.cn/world/2016-01/14/content_37573547.htm adresinden 04.08.2021'de erişildi.
  • Tür, Ö., & Salik, N. (2017). Uluslararası İlişkilerde “Küçük Devletler”: Gelişimi, Tanımı, Dış Politika ve İttifak Davranışları. Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, 14(53), 3-22. https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.513054
  • Ulrichsen, K. C. (2016, Mart 1). Evolving power dynamics in the United Arab Emirates – Baker Institute Blog [Public Policy]. Baker Institute Blog website: http://blog.bakerinstitute.org/2016/03/01/evolving-power-dynamics-in-the-united-arab-emirates/ adresinden 19.08.2021'de erişildi.
  • Ulrichsen, K. C. (2021, Aralık 17). An Overstretched UAE Looks to Mend Ties With Turkey, World Politics Review website: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/30001/what-s-behind-the-recent-thaw-in-uae-turkey-relations adresinden 20.03.2020'de erişildi.
  • Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley Pub. Co.
  • Watanabe, L. (2016). Gulf States’ Engagement in North Africa. Almezaini, K. S., & Rickli, J. M. (Eds.) The Small Gulf States: Foreign and Security Policies before and after the Arab Spring.Taylor & Francis.
  • Wormuth, C. (2019). Russia and China in the Middle East: Implications for the United States in an Era of Strategic Competition. https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CT511.html adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
  • Worth, R. F. (2020, Ocak 9). Mohammed bin Zayed’s Dark Vision of the Middle East’s Future. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/magazine/united-arab-emirates-mohammed-bin-zayed.html adresinden 20.02.2021'de erişildi.
Toplam 88 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uluslararası İlişkiler
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALELERİ
Yazarlar

Zehra Karayel 0000-0001-8744-3215

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Karayel, Z. (2021). ‘SPARTA’ MI TRUVA ATI MI? BİRLEŞİK ARAP EMİRLİKLERİ’NİN BÖLGESEL GÜÇ SERÜVENİ. Ortadoğu Ve Göç, 11(2), 224-267. https://doi.org/10.31834/ortadoguvegoc.988346