THE MIDDLE EAST POLICY OF THE USA DURING OBAMA ERA: DEMOCRATIC RHETORIC AND ACTION DURING THE ARAB SPRING PERIOD

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 68 - 95, 01.12.2016

Mustafa Cüneyt Özşahin

Öz

This study investigates the US democracy promotion strategy in the Arab Spring. The idea of democracy, as a pillar of American politics, has played an important role in foreign policy making from past to present. As a matter of fact, democracy was also a major element in the political rhetoric of Barack Obama, the forty forth president of the USA. Nevertheless, the gap between Obama’s democracy discourse toward Arab countries and his failure to turn this rhetoric into action was often highlighted. However, the reasons behind Obama’s failed democracy promotion has so far been overlooked. This evaluation focuses on the role of democracy in Obama’s foreign policy toward Arab Spring countries within the framework of decision making theories. Drawing from theories of foreign policy learning and framing in foreign policy decision making process, this study aims to explain the Obama’s policy during Arab Spring centering on Libya, Egypt and Syria cases

Anahtar Kelimeler

USA, Obama, Foreign Policy, Decision Making Approach

OBAMA DÖNEMİ ABD’NİN ORTADOĞU POLİTİKASI: ARAP BAHARI SÜRECİNDE DEMOKRATİK SÖYLEM VE EYLEM

Öz

Bu çalışmada ABD’nin Arap Baharı sürecinde demokrasi teşvik stratejisi analiz edilmektedir. ABD politikasının temel sütunlarından biri olan demokrasi fikri geçmişten bugüne dış politika yapımında belirleyici olmuştur. Nitekim ABD’nin kırk dördüncü başkanı Barack Obama’nın siyasal retoriğinde de demokrasi önemli bir bileşen olarak yerini almıştır. Öte yandan Arap Baharı ülkelerine yönelik Obama’nın ortaya koyduğu demokrasi söylemini eyleme dönüştürmekteki başarısızlığına dikkat çekilmiş, ancak bununla birlikte Obama’nın söz konusu başarısızlığının nedenleri ise göz ardı edilmiştir. Bu değerlendirmede karar verme teorileri çerçevesinde Obama’nın Arap Baharı ülkelerine yönelik dış politikasında demokrasinin rolüne odaklanılmaktadır. Dış politika karar alma sürecinde dış politika öğrenme ve çerçeveleme yaklaşımlarından faydalanılarak bu çalışmada, Libya, Mısır ve Suriye örnekleri merkezinde Obama’nın Arap Baharı sürecinde izlediği politika açıklanmaya çalışılmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

ABD, Obama, Dış Politika, Karar Alma yaklaşımı

Kaynakça

• Bennett, Colin J. ve Michael Howlett. “The Lessons of Learning: Reconciling Theories of Policy Learning and Policy Change.” Policy Sciences 25, no. 3 (1992): 275-94.
• Bleich, Sara. “Is It All in a Word? The Effect of Issue Framing on Public Support for Us Spending on Hiv/Aids in Developing Countries.” Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics 12, no. 2 (2007): 120-32.
• Bozbaş, Gökhan. “Batı’nın Demokrasi Paradoksu, ‘Demokratik Darbe’ Kavramsallaştırması Ve 15 Temmuz Darbe Kalkışması.” . Muhafazakâr Düşünce 13, no. 49 (2016): 73-90.
• Brancati, Dawn. “The Determinants of Us Public Opinion Towards Democracy Promotion.” Political Behavior 36, no. 4 (2014): 705-30.
• Brändström, Annika, Fredrik Bynander, and Paul ’t Hart. “Governing by Looking Back: Historical Analogies and Crisis Management.” Public Administration 82, no. 1 (2004): 191-210.
• Brock, Lothar , Anna Geis, ve Harald Müller, “Introduction: The Theoretical Challenge of Democratic Wars,” Anna Geis, Lothar Brock, and Harald Müller (Edt.), Democratic Wars: Looking at the Dark Side of Democratic Peace, London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2006.
• Brockmeier, Sarah, Oliver Stuenkel ve Marcos Tourinho, “The Impact of the Libya Intervention Debates on Norms of Protection,” Global Society 30, no.1 (2016): 113-133.
• Byman, Daniel. “Sectarianism Afflicts the New Middle East.” Survival 56, no. 1 (2014): 79-100.
• Carothers, Thomas. “Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve.” Carnegie Endowment, 2011.
• ———. Democracy Policy under Obama: Revitalization or Retreat? Washinghton: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012.
• ———. “Democracy Promotion under Clinton “. The Washington Quarterly 18, no. 4 (1995): 13-25.
• ———. “The Ned at 10.” Foreign Policy, no. 95 (1994): 123-38.
• Chandler, David. “Back to the Future? The Limits of Neo-Wilsonian Ideals of Exporting Democracy.” Review of International Studies 32, no. 3 (2006): 475-94.
• Chomiak, Catherine. “Kerry: Egyptian revolution ‘stolen’ by Muslim Brotherhood”, NBC News, 3 Kasım 2015, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/kerry-e- gyptian-revolution-stolen-muslim-brotherhood-flna2D11629787, Tarihi: 18 Mayıs 2015. Erişim
• Chong, Dennis ve James N. Druckman. “Framing Theory.” Annual Review of Political Science 10, no. 1 (2007): 103-26.
• Clarke, Duncan L. “Us Security Assistance to Egypt and Israel: Politically Untouchable?”. Middle East Journal 51, no. 2 (1997): 200-14.
• Dalacoura, Katerina. “Coup D’etat or Liberation? Us-Egypt Relations after the Fall of Mohamed Morsi.” International Affairs at LSE, 8 Temmuz 2013, http://ep- rints.lse.ac.uk/81598/1/Coup%20d%E2%80%99etat%20or%20liberation_%20 US-Egypt%20relations%20after%20the%20fall%20of%20Mohamed%20 Morsi%20_%20International%20Affairs%20at%20LSE.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2016.
• Davis, Julie Hirschfeld ve Ashley Parker, “Menendez’s Views on Cuba and Iran Show Rifts With Obama”, The New York Times, 5 Şubat 2015, https://www. nytimes.com/2015/02/06/us/politics/senator-robert-menendez-obama-cuba-i- ran.html, Erişim Tarihi: 2 Ocak 2016.
• Dolowitz, David P. ve David Marsh. “Learning from Abroad: The Role of Policy Transfer in Contemporary Policy-Making.” Governance 13, no. 1 (2000): 5-23.
• Drezner, Daniel W. “Values, Interests, and American Grand Strategy,” Diplomatic History, 29, no 3 (2005): 429-432.
• Dueck, Colin. “The Accommodator: Obama’s Foreign Policy.” Policy Review, no. 169 (2011): 13-28.
• Dunne, Charles W. “Democracy Promotion: Obama’s Mixed Record.” , 19 Kasım 2014, https://www.mei.edu/publications/democracy-promotion-oba- mas-mixed-record, Erişim Tarihi. 22 Mayıs 2016.
• Entman, Robert M. Projections of Power: Framing News, Public Opinion, and Us Foreign Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004.
• Entman, Robert, ve Andrew Rojecki. “Freezing out the Public: Elite and Media Framing of the U.S. Anti-Nuclear Movement.” Political Communication 10, no. 2 (1993): 155-73.
• Forsythe, David P. “Democracy, War, and Covert Action.” Journal of Peace Research 29, no. 4 (1992): 385-95.
• Fisk, Robert , “When is a military coup not a military coup? When it happens in Egypt, apparently”, Independent, 4 Temmuz 2013, https://www.independent. co.uk/voices/comment/when-is-a military-coup-not-a-military-coup-when- it-happens-in-egypt-apparently-8688000.html, Erişim Tarihi: 10 Mayıs 2015.
• Friedman, Thomas, “Obama Makes His Case on Iran Nuclear Deal,” The New York Times , 14 Temmuz 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/opinion/ thomas-friedman-obama-makes-his-case-on-iran-nuclear-deal.html, Erişim Tarihi: 16 Ocak 2016.
• Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History and the Last Man. New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006.
• Fukuyama, Francis ve Michael McFaul, “Should Democracy Be Promoted or Demoted?.” The Washington Quarterly 31, no. 1 (2008): 23-45.
• Garrison, Jean A. “Framing Foreign Policy Alternatives in the Inner Circle: President Carter, His Advisors, and the Struggle for the Arms Control Agenda.” Political Psychology 22, no. 4 (2001): 775-807.
• “Global Public Opinion in the Bush Years (2001-2008)”, 18 Aralık 2008, http:// www.pewglobal.org/2008/12/18/global-public-opinion-in-the-bush-ye- ars-2001-2008/, Erişim Tarihi: 21 Mayıs 2015.
• Gökcan, Fulya ve Aylin Güney. “The ‘Greater Middle East’ as a ‘Modern’ Geopolitical Imagination in American Foreign Policy “. Geopolitics 15, no. 1 (2010): 22-38.
• Guzman, Andrea L. “Evolution of News Frames During the 2011 Egyptian Revolution:Critical Discourse Analysis of Fox News’s and Cnn’s Framing of Protesters, Mubarak, and the Muslim Brotherhood.” Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly 93, no. 1 (2016): 80-98.
• Hagan, Joe D. “Domestic Political Explanations in the Analysis of Foreign Policy,” Laura Neack, Jeanne A. K .Hey ve Patrick J. Haney (Edt.), Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in Its Second Generation, ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1995: 117-143.
• Hudson, Valerie M. “Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor-Specific Theory and the Ground of International Relations.” Foreign policy analysis 1, no. 1 (2005): 1-30.
• Ikenberry, “America’s Liberal Grand Strategy: Democracy and National Security in the Post-War Era,” Micheal Cox, G. John Ikenberry ve Takashi Inoguchi (Edt.), American Democracy Promotion: Impulses, Strategies, and Impacts New York: Oxford University 2000: 103-126
• ———. “Why Export Democracy?”. The Wilson Quarterly (1976-) 23, no. 2 (1999): 56-65.
• Jaffe, Gregg. “The problem with Obama’s account of the Syrian red-line incident”, The Washington Post, 4 Ekim 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ post-politics/wp/2016/10/04/the-problem-with-obamas-account-of-the-syri- an-red-line-incident/?utm_term=.3d290ca8af1d, Erişim Tarihi: 25 Mayıs 2016
• Jacoby, William G. “Issue Framing and Public Opinion on Government Spending.” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 4 (2000): 750-67.
• Jentleson, Bruce W. ve A. Whytock Christopher. “Who “Won” Libya?: The Force- Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy.” International Security 30, no. 3 (2005): 47-86.
• Jervis, Robert. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976.
• Kaarbo, Juliet. “A Foreign Policy Analysis Perspective on the Domestic Politics Turn in IR Theory.” International Studies Review 17, no. 2 (2015):189-216.
• Kegley Jr, Charles W. “The Neoidealist Moment in International Studies? Realist Myths and the New International Realities: Isa Presidential Address March 27, 1993 Acapulco, Mexico.” International Studies Quarterly 37, no. 2 (1993): 131-46.
• Khong, Yuen Foong. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. (N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1992).
• Kuperman, Alan J. “Obama’s Libya Debacle: How a Well-Meaning Intervention Ended in Failure.” Foreign Affairs 94 (2015): 66-77.
• LeoGrande, William M. “Normalizing US–Cuba Relations: Escaping the Shackles of the Past.” International Affairs 91, no. 3 (2015): 473-88.
• Levy, Jack S. “Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield.” International Organization 48, no. 2 (2009): 279-312.
• Little, Douglas. “Cold War and Covert Action: The United States and Syria, 1945- 1958.” Middle East Journal 44, no. 1 (1990): 51-75.
• Loizides, Neophytos G. “Elite Framing and Conflict Transformation in Turkey.” Parliamentary Affairs 62, no. 2 (2008): 278-97.
• Michael Mann, The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005).
• Mankoff, Jeffrey. “The Tricky Us–Russia “Reset” Button.” Council on Foreign Relations 18 (2009), https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/tricky-us-russia-re- set-button, Erişim Tarihi: 10 Mayıs 2016
• Maoz, Zeev. “Framing the National Interest: The Manipulation of Foreign Policy Decisions in Group Settings.” World Politics 43, no. 1 (1990): 77-110.
• Ewen, McAskill, “Obama: post-Assad Syria of Islamist extremism is nightmare scenario”, The Guardian, 22 Mart 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/wor- ld/2013/mar/22/obama-syria-assad-syria-extremists, Erişim Tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2015.
• McAskill, Ewen . “Obama: post-Assad Syria of Islamist extremism is nightmare scenario”, The Guardian, 22 Mart 2013,https://www.theguardian.com/wor- ld/2013/mar/22/obama-syria-assad-syria-extremists, Erişim Tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2015.
• Mintz, Alex ve Karl DeRouen Jr. Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making. Newyork: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
• Monten, Jonathan. “The Roots of the Bush Doctrine: Power, Nationalism, and Democracy Promotion in Us Strategy.” International Security 29, no. 4 (2005): 112-56.
• Moyar, Mark. “Leaving Behind “Leading from Behind”.” Hoover Institution- Strategica, no. 36 , 31 Ekim 2016, https://www.hoover.org/research/leaving-be- hind-leading-behind, Erişim Tarihi: 30 Kasım 2016.
• Nau, Henry R. “Obama’s Foreign Policy.” Policy Review, no. 160 (2010): 27.
• Nelson, Colleen McCain .“Obama Says Syrian Leader Bashar al-Assad Must Go”, The Wall Street Journal, 19 Kasım 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/obama- says-syrian-leader-bashar-al-assad-must-go-1447925671, Erişim Tarihi: 25 Mayıs 2016.
• Ohaegbulam, Festus Ugboaja. “Us Measures against Libya since the Explosion of Pan Am Flight 103.” Mediterranean Quarterly 11, no. 1 (2000): 111-35.
• Patterson, Eric. “Obama and Sustainable Democracy Promotion.” International Studies Perspectives 13, no. 1 (2012): 26-42.
• “President Obama: Libya aftermath ‘worst mistake’ of presidency”, BBC, 11 Nisan 2016 , https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36013703, Erişim Tarihi: 20 Mayıs 2016.
• Pressman, Jeremy. “Power without Influence: The Bush Administration’s Foreign Policy Failure in the Middle East.” International Security 33, no. 4 (2009): 149-79.
• “Remarks by the President at Cairo University, 6-04-09”, 4 Haziran 2009, https:// obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-cairo-u- niversity-6-04-09, Erişim Tarihi: 17 Mayıs 2015.
• Robinson, Dan. “Obama Condemns Libya Attack that Killed US Ambassador” VOA News, 12 Eylül 2012, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-ambassador-3-ot- hers-killed-in-libya-attack-/1506222.html, Erişim Tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2015.
• Ryan Miss ve Matt Spetalnick, “U.S. to pull out of Iraq after nearly 9 years of war”, Reuters, 21 Ekim 2011, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-usa-obama-i- dUSTRE79K4LR20111021
• Simons, Geoff. Libya: The Struggle for Survival. London: Palgrave, MacMillan, 1996.
• Smith, Karen E. “Western Actors and the Promotion of Democracy.” Alex Pravda ve Jan Zielonka (Edt.), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe: Volume 2: International and Transnational Factors. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press, 2001.
• Smith, Tony. America’s Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2012.
• Snyder, Richard C, Henry W Bruck ve Burton Sapin, “Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of International Politics,” Richard C. Snyder, Valerie M. Hudson, Derek H. Chollet ve James M. Goldgeier (Edt.), Foreign Policy Decision-Making (Revisited), NewYork: Springer, 2002: 21-152
• Taylor, Andrew J., and John T. Rourke. “Historical Analogies in the Congressional Foreign Policy Process.” The Journal of Politics 57, no. 2 (1995): 460-68.
• Tisdall, Simon. “US changes its tune on Syrian regime change as Isis threat ta- kes top priority”, The Guardian, 25 Ocak 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/ us-news/2015/jan/25/us-syrian-regime-change-isis-priority, Erişim Tarihi: 12 Mayıs 2016.
• Totten, Michael J., David Schenker ve Hussain Abdul-Hussain. “Arab Spring or Islamist Winter? Three Views.” World Affairs 174, no. 5 (2012): 23-42.
• Varol, Ozan O. “The Democratic Coup D’état.” Harvard International Law Journal 53 (2012): 291.
• Walsh, James I. “Policy Failure and Policy Change:British Security Policy after the Cold War.” Comparative Political Studies 39, no. 4 (2006): 490-518.
• Wehrey, Frederic. “Why Libya’s transition to democracy failed”, Washinghton Post, 17 Şubat 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca- ge/wp/2016/02/17/why-libyas-transition-failed/?utm_term=.92f969ca06db, Erişim Tarihi: 17 Mayıs 2016.
• Wendt, Alexander. Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge Studies in International Relations. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
• Yalçın, Hasan B. “Obama Stratejisi ve Ortadoğu,” Akademik Ortadoğu, 9 no.2, (2015): 55-79.
• Yurdusev, Ahmet Nuri. “The Greater Middle East Initiative and Democracy in Muslim States: A Turkish Perspective “. Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 18, no. 2 (2006): 73-94.
• Zisser, Eyal. “Syria and the United States: Bad Habits Die Hard.” Middle East Quarterly 10, no. 3 (2003): 29-37.
• Zoubir, Yahia H. “Libya in Us Foreign Policy: From Rogue State to Good Fellow?”. Third World Quarterly 23, no. 1 (2002): 31-53.