Abstract
The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape has been profoundly reshaped by two recent events: the October 7 attacks and the war on Gaza, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. These developments have placed Hezbollah, which long regarded as Iran’s most powerful proxy and Lebanon’s dominant armed faction, at a crossroads. Regionally, the collapse of the Assad regime severed Hezbollah’s vital supply corridor, increasing its exposure to Israeli and regional countermeasures. Domestically, prolonged confrontations with Israel, compounded by Lebanon’s economic crisis and the displacement of more than one million Lebanese, have weakened Hezbollah’s political legitimacy and military deterrence. This paper argues that Hezbollah stands at a defining moment: its survival depends on its ability to adapt to rapidly shifting geopolitical dynamics. The study examines how Hezbollah constructs threat narratives to justify its actions, consolidate political authority, and navigate evolving security challenges. It highlights how the organization frames Israel and regional encirclement as existential threats to maintain its influence and mobilize support. These dynamics offer broader insights into how violent non-state actors craft security discourses to adapt within changing geopolitical environments.
References
- References are indicated in the article.
Abstract
The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape has been profoundly reshaped by two recent events: the October 7 attacks and the war on Gaza, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. These developments have placed Hezbollah, which long regarded as Iran’s most powerful proxy and Lebanon’s dominant armed faction, at a crossroads. Regionally, the collapse of the Assad regime severed Hezbollah’s vital supply corridor, increasing its exposure to Israeli and regional countermeasures. Domestically, prolonged confrontations with Israel, compounded by Lebanon’s economic crisis and the displacement of more than one million Lebanese, have weakened Hezbollah’s political legitimacy and military deterrence. This paper argues that Hezbollah stands at a defining moment: its survival depends on its ability to adapt to rapidly shifting geopolitical dynamics. The study examines how Hezbollah constructs threat narratives to justify its actions, consolidate political authority, and navigate evolving security challenges. It highlights how the organization frames Israel and regional encirclement as existential threats to maintain its influence and mobilize support. These dynamics offer broader insights into how violent non-state actors craft security discourses to adapt within changing geopolitical environments.
References
- References are indicated in the article.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Middle East Studies |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | July 26, 2025 |
| Submission Date | March 31, 2025 |
| Acceptance Date | May 30, 2025 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2025 Volume: 30 Issue: 1 |
