FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings on the Predictability of the Men’s and Women’s FIFA World Cup: A Comparative Analysis

Year 2022, , 31 - 58, 30.08.2022

Brandon Joly , Tom Stojsavljevic , Mehmet Dik

https://doi.org/10.47086/pims.1153373

Abstract

Since 1992, the International Federation of Association Football
(FIFA) has been ranking senior men’s national soccer teams based on a variety
of criteria. In 2003, FIFA extended the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings into
ranking senior women’s national soccer teams. The FIFA/Coca-Cola World
Rankings published just before the 1994 FIFA World Cup USA, 1998 FIFA
World Cup France, 2002 FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan, 2006 FIFA World Cup
Germany, 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa, 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil,
2018 FIFA World Cup Russia, 2003 FIFA World Cup USA, 2007 FIFA World
Cup China, 2011 FIFA World Cup Germany, 2015 FIFA World Cup Canada,
and the 2019 FIFA World Cup France were considered. These rankings were
compared to the final results of those FIFA World Cups based on two different
methods of displaying the teams finish and were analyzed. Of the top 16
teams in each of the Men’s FIFA World Cups, 74.1% of those teams advanced
to the Round of 16. Meanwhile, 83.9% of the top 12 teams in each of the
Women’s FIFA World Cups advanced to the Round of 16 or Quarterfinals.
The Pearson correlation coefficient between the Pre-Tournament rankings and
final results was calculated using both ranking methods. The Women’s World
Cups had higher Pearson correlation coefficients for both methods than the
Men’s World Cups. In addition, the Women’s World Cups had higher t-values
and z-scores than the Men’s World Cup when tested for independence and
association between the Pre-Tournament rankings and final results using both
ranking methods. These findings indicate that the Women’s World Cups were
more predictable than Men’s World Cups based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World
Rankings.

Keywords

FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, FIFA World Cup, Chi-Square, Fisher Exact Test, Pearson Correlation Coefficient

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