FACTS AND COMMENTS

Abstract

This article covers Turkey-Armenia relations as well as domestic and international developments of Armenia in the period of January-July 2021. The period under review has already been registered in the historical annals as one where the second independent Republic of Armenia (third according to Armenian sources, which also count the Soviet era republic), has waged a war, endured defeat and gone through serious internal havoc and instability. During these uncertain times, Armenia’s government has vacillated between adopting a realist and peaceful policy based on regional cooperation and a surrealist and revanchist one encouraged by the Diaspora, the Apostolic Church and western partisan supporters. The defeat in the 2020 Karabakh War against Azerbaijan and its consequences have further increased its dependence on Russia, narrowing Armenia’s margin of double play between Russia and the West. Although the war and the following ceasefire agreement testified to the fact that Karabakh is part of the territory of Azerbaijan and that the question of status is confined solely to the question of what rights are to be accorded to the Armenian minority living in Karabakh, Armenia has nevertheless continued in its contacts with the West to plea for sovereignty over Karabakh. The West did not surprise and once again unscrupulously sided with and further encouraged the Armenian narrative. The US President’s 24 April statement was one such partisan step. The strategic dilemma and vacillation have kept on as well with regards relations with Turkey, as on the one hand, Turkey is seen as an enemy, while on the other hand, the search for regional cooperation and neighborly relations with acknowledged benefits has gained prominence in the agenda. Heavy criticism from the vociferous old guard, unabashedly pro-Russian yet vehemently against the ceasefire and eventually the peace agreement, accusing Pashinyan with treason -one of the lesser disparaging remarks pronounced against him- inevitably led to snap elections. Interestingly, the Diaspora representatives also openly joined the anti-Pashinyan rhetoric. Pashinyan’s landslide victory was a surprise to many.

Keywords

• Pashinyan
• Ayvazyan
• Putin
• Lavrov
• ceasefire agreement
• transport corridors
• snap elections
• US President’s statement

OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Abstract

Bu incelemede Ermenistan’ın iç ve dış dinamiklerinde ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkilerinde Ocak-July 2021 ayları arasındaki gelişmeler ele alınmaktadır. İncelediğimiz dönem, 1992 yılında tarihinde ikinci kez (Ermeni siyasetçilere göre, Sovyet dönemi de hesaba katılarak üçüncü kez) bağımsız olan Ermenistan devletinin bir savaş yürüttüğü, bir yenilgiye ve ciddi bir iç karışıklık ile istikrarsızlık maruz kaldığı bir zaman dilimi olarak tarihe geçmiştir. Bu dönemde Ermenistan yönetimi; bölgesel işbirliğini esas alan, gerçekçi ve barışçı bir politika ile Diasporanın, Apostolik Kilisenin ve batılı yandaşlarının baskısı ve teşvikiyle, hayalperest ve intikamcı bir strateji benimseme arasında yalpalamıştır. 2020 Karabağ Savaşı yenilgisi Rusya’ya olan bağımlılığını daha da arttırmış, Ermenistan’ın Batı ile Rusya arasında ikili oynama marjını daraltmıştır. Savaş ve ateşkes anlaşmasının Karabağ’ın Azerbaycan’ın toprak bütünlüğü içinde yer aldığını kanıtlamasına, statü konusunun münhasıran Karabağ’da yaşayan Ermeni azınlığa tanınacak haklara inhisar ettiğini göstermesine rağmen, Ermenistan Batı ile temaslarında Karabağ üzerinde hak iddia etme girişimlerini sürdürmüştür. Batı’nın Ermenistan’ı bir kez daha bu iddialarında destekleyen, hatta teşvik eden izansız tutumu şaşırtıcı olmamıştır. ABD Başkanının 24 Nisan açıklaması da bu yönde tarafgir bir adım olmuştur. Türkiye ile ilişkiler konusunda da stratejik ikilem ve yalpalama devam etmiş, Türkiye bir yandan düşman olarak tanımlanırken, diğer taraftan sağlayacağı çıkar açık olan bölgesel işbirliği ve komşuluk ilişkilerinin nasıl geliştirilebileceği arayışı gündeme gelmiştir. Diğer taraftan, bir yandan Rusya’ya kayıtsız şartsız bağlılık beyan eden, diğer yandan ateş-kes anlaşmasına ve izleyecek barış anlaşmasına karşı çıkan eski yönetim önderlerinin ve taraftarlarının Paşinyan’a karşı başlattıkları ses getiren kampanya ve Paşinyan’ı en hafifinden vatana ihanet ile suçlamalar erken seçime gidilmesini kaçınılmaz kılmıştır. İlginç olan, Diasporanın önde gelen temsilcilerinin de Paşinyan aleyhtarı bu kampanyayı açıkça desteklemiş olmalarıdır. Paşinyan’ın seçimlerde sağladığı ezici çoğunluk birçoklarını yanıltmış ve şaşırtmıştır.

Keywords

• Paşinyan
• Ayvazyan
• Putin
• Lavrov
• ateşkes anlaşması
• ulaşım koridorları
• erken seçim
• ABD Başkanının açıklaması

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