The Impact of the Second Karabakh War on the Armenian Economy and Financial Markets in the Framework of Armenia's Foreign Relations

Year 2023, Issue: 47, 119 - 158, 25.07.2023

Fatih Kocaoğlu , Mehmet Kuzu

Abstract

Thirty years after the First Karabakh War, the events that developed with Armenia's attack on the city of Tovuz in Azerbaijan started the Second Karabakh War in September 2020. While the first war was an ethnic-based conflict that emerged in the Soviet geography after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the second war was an ethnic conflict and a proxy war based on political economy, apart from the issues of reclaiming the lands that Azerbaijan had lost military control. After Turkey's geopolitical problems with Russia, it has sought to diversify its energy imports and replace Russian gas with Azerbaijani gas to reduce its dependence on Russia. The Tovuz attack, an essential point in delivering Armenian-Azerbaijani gas to Turkey, occurred in this ongoing process. In this primary layer, the Second Karabakh War was a proxy war based on the economy and politics between Russia and Turkey. With the war, Iran supported Armenia, and Israel supported Azerbaijan. In the secondary layer, it was a geopolitically based proxy war between Israel and Iran at a weaker level. Since the founding element of the war was the economic-political plane, this study examines the economic-political dimension of the war for Armenia. In this context, this study aims to analyze the effects of the Second Karabakh War on the Armenian economy and financial markets within the framework of Armenia's relations with Russia and the Western world. According to the results, during the process that turned into a war, the Armenian economy contracted with the increasing public expenditures during the war, and economic and financial fragilities increased. After the armistice, Turkey's internal economic-political and growing confidence in solving the problem provided capital inflows from Russia and the West, supporting economic growth and financial markets. However, the Armenian economy has been susceptible to the geopolitical and military tensions that have risen during the post-war period. On the other hand, Western and Russian capital are energizing the Armenian economy in alternative ways according to the changing geopolitical and alliance system conditions. Russia's relative influence in this dynamic is more significant. At a higher level of analysis, the main reason for this is Armenia's varying relations with Russia and the Western alliance. As Russia's positive impact on the Armenian economy decreased in the post-war period, this effect was replaced with the positive impact of Western capital on the Armenian economy.

Keywords

Armenian Financial Markets., Armenia, Second Karabakh War, War-Politics Relationship, Economy

Ermenistan’ın Dış İlişkileri Çerçevesinde İkinci Karabağ Savaşının Ermeni Ekonomisi Ve Finans Piyasalarına Etkisi

Abstract

Birinci Karabağ Savaşı'ndan otuz yıl sonra Ermenistan'ın Azerbaycan'da Tovuz şehrine saldırmasıyla gelişen olaylar Eylül 2020'de İkinci Karabağ Savaşı'nı başlatmıştır. Birinci savaş, Sovyetler Birliği'nin dağılmasından sonra Sovyet coğrafyasında ortaya çıkan etnik temelli bir çatışma iken, ikinci savaş Azerbaycan'ın askeri kontrolünü kaybettiği toprakların geri alınması meseleleri dışında etnik bir çatışma ve politik ekonomiye dayalı bir vekalet savaşı olmuştur. Türkiye, Rusya ile jeopolitik sorunlarının ardından Rusya'ya bağımlılığını azaltmak için enerji ithalatını çeşitlendirmeye ve Rus gazını Azerbaycan gazıyla ikâme etmeye çalışmıştır. Ermenistan’ın Azerbaycan gazının Türkiye'ye ulaştırılmasında önemli bir nokta olan Tovuza saldırısı, devam eden süreçte gerçekleşmiştir. Birincil katmanda İkinci Karabağ Savaşı, Rusya ile Türkiye arasındaki ekonomi ve siyasete dayalı bir vekalet savaşıdır. Savaşla birlikte İran Ermenistan'ı, İsrail Azerbaycan'ı desteklemiştir. İkinci savaş ikincil katmanda, İsrail ile İran arasında daha zayıf düzeyde jeopolitik temelli bir vekalet savaşı olmuştur. Savaşın kurucu unsuru ekonomik-politik düzlem olduğundan, bu çalışma Ermenistan için savaşın ekonomik-politik boyutunu incelemektedir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışma, Ermenistan'ın Rusya ve Batı dünyası ile ilişkileri çerçevesinde İkinci Karabağ Savaşı'nın Ermenistan ekonomisi ve finans piyasaları üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre savaşa dönüşen süreçte ve savaş sırasında artan kamu harcamaları ile Ermeni ekonomisi daralmış, ekonomik ve mali kırılganlıklar artmıştır. Ateşkes sonrası Türkiye’nin de sorunun çözümüne ekonomi-politik olarak dâhili ile artan güven ortamının Rusya ve batı kaynaklı sağladığı sermaye girişleri iktisadi büyümeyi ve finansal piyasaları desteklemiştir. Ancak Ermeni ekonomisi, savaş sonrası dönemde yükselen jeopolitik ve askeri gerilimlere karşı duyarlı olmuştur. Öte yandan Batı ve Rus sermayesi, değişen jeopolitik ve ittifak sistemi koşullarına göre alternatif yollarla Ermeni ekonomisini desteklemektedir. Rusya'nın bu süreçteki göreceli etkisi daha önemlidir. Daha yüksek bir analiz düzeyinde, bunun temel nedeni Ermenistan'ın Rusya ve Batı ittifakı ile değişen ilişkileridir. Savaş sonrası dönemde Rusya'nın Ermeni ekonomisi üzerindeki olumlu etkisi azaldıkça, bu etkinin yerini alan Batı sermayesinin Ermeni ekonomisi üzerindeki olumlu etkisi artmıştır.

Keywords

Ermenistan, İkinci Karabağ Savaşı, Savaş-Siyaset İlişkisi, Ekonomi, Finans Piyasaları

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