Facts and Comments

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 47, 13 - 61, 25.07.2023

Alev Kılıç

Öz

This article covers the domestic and international developments of Armenia, the background to why the peace agreement envisaged and outlined in the cease-fire agreement of November 2020 could not be realized in the two and half years that elapsed, how the current efforts proceed, and relations between Türkiye and Armenia in the light of the normalization of relations process in the period of December 2022-June 2023.

Russia’s war against Ukraine failing in its aim of a quick victory, and the prolongation of the war and its transformation into a war of attrition with the active and substantial support of the West has revealed the military deficiency of Russia. The West, seeking other means of pressing and further jeopardizing Russia, has seen the opportunity in approaching Armenia, an ally and traditionally under very tight reins of Russia, to broker the peace agreement with Azerbaijan and eventually drive Russia away and to establish its own domain. Russia too has recognized this development as a threat in the region, seen as vital for its connectivity with the South and the East and considered to be its soft belly. Armenia’s ambivalence and potential for shift of allegiances have become a serious concern for Russia.

The region becoming a new flash point in the West-Russia adversity has not caused discomfort in Armenia. To the contrary, Armenia appears to have seen an advantage in dealing with parties with varying interests and calculations in the region to minimize its losses in the 2020 war and possibly make new gains. This expectation has led to the procrastination of the formulation and signing of the peace agreement. Karabakh and the issue of the delimitation of the borders have come to the fore as major obstacles.

A similar duality is witnessed in domestic politics. On the one hand advocating peaceful and liberal principles, the Armenian administration has found a passable excuse for restraint in those principles due to the activities and actions of the very small but vociferous opposition guided and directed by the radical Dashnaktsutyun-ARF with a dark terrorism record and their sponsors and financers in the Diaspora. The attitude and sermons of the Catholicosate of Etchmiadzin very much in line with the radical opposition has been another factor in restraining the administration.

Relations with Türkiye have moved within the framework of the normalization process, albeit experiencing sharp ups and downs. Armenia’s humanitarian assistance following the earthquake disaster of 6 February in Türkiye, the opening of the border crossing for Armenian vehicles to this end, the visit of the Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs to Ankara and to the disaster area have raised the hope for good-neighborly and compassionate relations. However, immediately after, the inauguration of a monument in the capital city of Yerevan consecrating radical Armenian nationalist terrorism has once again confirmed that there is no change in the anti-Turk or Türkiye sentiments and policies. It cannot be denied that these sentiments and policies enjoy the support, even encouragement of the West and religious solidarity. Prime Minister Pashinyan’s attendance to President Erdoğan’s new term reception after his election win provided another glimmer of hope for the progress of relations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pashinyan, Mirzoyan, Lavrov, Blinken, Michelle, Scholz, Bono, Vardanyan, Lachin Corridor, Zangezur Corridor, Nemesis Monument

Olaylar Ve Yorumlar

Öz

Bu incelemede Aralık 2022-Haziran 2023 tarihleri arasında Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler, 2020 yılında cereyan eden savaşı sonlandıran Kasım 2020 ateş-kes anlaşmasının üzerinden geçen yaklaşık iki buçuk yıla rağmen hala öngörülen barış anlaşmasının imzalanamamış olmasının nedenleri ve bu yönde süregelen girişimler ile Türkiye-Ermenistan arasındaki ilişkiler ve başlatılan normalleşme sürecindeki gelişmeler ele alınmaktadır.

Rusya’nın Ukrayna’ya karşı giriştiği savaşta öngördüğü hedeflere ulaşamaması, savaşın uzaması, Batı’nın aktif biçimde Ukrayna’yı desteklemesiyle savaşın uzun vadeli bir yıpratma savaşına dönüşmesi, dolayısıyla Rusya’nın askeri zafiyetinin de ortaya çıkması, Batı’nın Rusya’yı daha da zora sokmak ve zafiyetini pekiştirmek amacıyla Rusya’nın geleneksel olarak mutlak güdümünde olduğu bilinen Ermenistan üzerinden Güney Kafkaslarda yeni bir cephe açabilmek üzere Ermenistan-Azerbaycan barış sürecinde başat rol üstlenme girişimleri dönem içinde bölgeye damgasını vurmuştur. Batı’nın bu şekilde Rusya’yı bölgeden uzaklaştırma ve nüfuz alanı oluşturma olasılığı karşısında, Güney ve Doğu ulaşımını sağlayan hayati çıkarlarının bulunduğu ve yumuşak karnı olarak tanımlanan bu bölgeye yönelik gelişmeler Rusya tarafından kuşkusuz tehdit olarak algılanmıştır. Bu süreçte Ermenistan’ın ikili tutumu ve bağlılıklarını değiştirme potansiyeli Rusya için ciddi bir endişe kaynağı olmuştur.

Bölgenin Rusya-Batı rekabetinde yeni bir odak noktası haline gelmesinden rahatsızlık duymak bir yana, bu gelişmeyi avantaja dönüştürmek peşinde koşan Ermenistan, bölgede farklı hesapları ve çıkarları bulunan tarafları kullanarak savaş sonrası kayıplarını en aza indirmek, hatta yeni kazanımlar sağlamak amacıyla nihai barış anlaşması imzalanması sürecini sürüncemede bırakacak bir yaklaşımı benimsemiştir. Karabağ konusu ve sınırların tespiti başlıca uyuşmazlık unsuru olarak ön plana çıkmıştır.

İç politikada da benzer bir ikili yaklaşım sürdürülmüştür. Yönetim bir yandan barışçı ve liberal ilkeleri savunurken, diğer taraftan radikal ve terör geçmişi tescilli Taşnaksutyun-EDF güdümündeki, sayıca çok az ancak militan bir muhalefetin ve bunların Diasporadaki yönlendirici ve finansörlerinin etkinliklerini kendilerini engelleyen bahane olarak kullanılabilmiştir. Eçmiadzin Katolikosluğunun da muhalefet çizgisindeki eylem ve söylemi de kuşkusuz yönetimin hareket serbestisini kısıtlayan bir unsur olmuştur.

Türkiye ile ilişkiler normalleşme süreci içinde ilerlemeye devam etmiş, ancak keskin iniş ve çıkışlar göstermiştir. Türkiye’deki 6 Şubat deprem felaketi Ermenistan’ın insani yardım girişimi, Türkiye’nin bu amaçla Alişan karayolu sınır kapısını açması, Ermenistan Dışişleri Bakanının ziyareti ile ileri ve dostça bir düzeye ulaşırken, Erivan’da radikal Ermeni milliyetçisi terörizmi kutsayan bir anıtın açılması gerçekte Türk ve Türkiye karşıtı hissiyat ve yaklaşımda hiçbir değişikliğin olmadığını bir kez daha göz önüne sermiştir. Ermenistan’ın bu genel hissiyat ve yaklaşımında Batı’dan ve dinsel dayanışmadan da destek, hatta teşvik gördüğü yadsınamamaktadır. Başbakan Paşinyan’ın Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan’ın davetine icabetle seçim sonrası kutlama törenine katılması ilişkilerin geleceği için yeni bir ümit ışığı yaratmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Paşinyan, Mirzoyan, Lavrov, Blinken, Michelle, Scholz, Bono, Vardanyan, Laçin Koridoru, Zangezur Koridoru, Nemesis Anıtı

Kaynakça

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