Mapping the Emotional Landscape of Voter Behavior: A Transformer-Based Sentiment Analysis of Reddit Discourse in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

This study examines voter behavior in the context of the 2024 United States Presidential Election by analyzing user comments from Reddit. Owing to the platform’s anonymity and community diversity, Reddit provides signals that reflect a wide range of socio-demographic perspectives on the electoral process. A dataset of 7,788 comments was collected through the Reddit API and the PRAW library, then preprocessed (cleaning, normalization, stopword removal, and labeling) for sentiment analysis. In the experimental stage, five transformer-based models (BERT, RoBERTa, DeBERTa, ALBERT, and GPT-2) were comparatively evaluated. Results show that DeBERTa achieved the highest accuracy and F1 scores, while GPT-2 performed relatively poorly in classification tasks. Statistical analyses revealed that 51.6% of Trump-related comments were positive, whereas comments on Harris displayed a more fragmented distribution. Neutral sentiments dominated the “Unknown” category. These findings indicate that Reddit sentiment signals reflect not only descriptive observations but also statistically robust evidence for electoral forecasting. Beyond methodological contributions, the study integrates emotional indicators into the rational-actor assumptions of public choice theory, demonstrating that voter behavior is shaped by both rational and emotional factors. In doing so, it provides an interdisciplinary framework that validates the applicability of artificial intelligence methods to political behavior analysis.

Keywords

• Reddit
• U.S. Election
• Sentiment Analysis
• Transformer Models
• Public Choice Theory

Seçmen Davranışının Duygusal Haritalandırılması: 2024 ABD Başkanlık Seçiminde Reddit Söylemlerinin Transformer Tabanlı Duygu Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2024 Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Başkanlık Seçimi bağlamında seçmen davranışını incelemekte ve Reddit platformundan elde edilen kullanıcı yorumlarını analiz etmektedir. Platformun anonimlik özelliği ve topluluk çeşitliliği sayesinde Reddit, seçmenlerin sosyo-demografik açıdan geniş bir yelpazede seçim sürecine dair algılarını yansıtan sinyaller sunmaktadır. Reddit API ve PRAW kütüphanesi aracılığıyla 7.788 yorumdan oluşan bir veri seti toplanmış, ardından duygu analizi amacıyla temizleme, normalizasyon, durak kelime (stopword) kaldırma ve etiketleme işlemleriyle ön işleme tabi tutulmuştur. Deneysel aşamada, beş farklı transformer tabanlı model (BERT, RoBERTa, DeBERTa, ALBERT ve GPT-2) karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, DeBERTa modelinin en yüksek doğruluk (accuracy) ve F1 skoru elde ettiğini, buna karşılık GPT-2’nin sınıflandırma görevlerinde nispeten zayıf performans sergilediğini göstermektedir. İstatistiksel analizler, Trump ile ilgili yorumların %51,6’sının olumlu olduğunu, Harris hakkındaki yorumların ise daha parçalı bir dağılım gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. “Bilinmeyen (Unknown)” kategorisinde ise nötr (neutral) duyguların baskın olduğu görülmüştür.

Keywords

• Reddit
• ABD Seçimleri
• Duygu Analizi
• Transformer Modelleri
• Kamu Tercihi Teorisi

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