Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster
Yıl 2020, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4, 1667 - 1680, 05.10.2021

Öz

Kaynakça

  • [1] Colak, H.E., Memisoglu, T., Erbas, Y.S., Bediroglu, S., (2018) Hot Spot Analysis Based On Network Spatial Weights To Determine Spatial Statistics Of Traffic Accidents In Rize, Turkey, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11: 151.
  • [2] Işıldar, S., (2006) Road Accidents in Turkey 1995–2004, IATSS Research, 30(2), 115−118.
  • [3] Erdogan, S., (2009) Explorative Spatial Analysis of Traffic Accident Statistics and Road Mortality among the Provinces of Turkey, Journal of Safety Research, 40, 341–351.
  • [4] Levine, N., Kim, K.E., Nitz, L.H., (1995) Spatial Analysis of Honolulu Motor Vehicle Crashes: II. Zonal Generators, Accid. Anal. Prev., 27, 675–685.
  • [5] Papadimitriou E., Eksler V., Yannis G., Lassarre S., (2013) Modelling the spatial variation of road safety in Greece, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Transport, 49–58.
  • [6] LaScala, E.A., Gerber, D., Gruenewald, P.J., (2000) Demographic and Environmental Correlates of Pedestrian Injury Collisions: A Spatial Analysis, Accid. Anal. Prev., 32, 651–658.
  • [7] Zhixiao, X., Jun, Y., (2013) Detecting Traffic Accident Clusters with Network Kernel Density Estimation and Local Spatial Statistics: An Integrated Approach, Journal of Transport Geography, 31, 64-71.
  • [8] Soro, W.L., Zhou, Y., Wayoro, D., (2017) Crash Rates Analysis in China Using A Spatial Panel Model, IATSS Research, 41, 123–128.
  • [9] Lakes, T.A., (2017) Spatially Explicit Analysis of Traffic Accidents Involving Pedestrians and Cyclists in Berlin, Bundesgesundheitsblatt-Gesundheitsforschung-Gesundheitsschutz, 60 (12), 1328-1335.
  • [10] Daniel, O., Adejumo, O., Oritogun, K., Mautin, G., Salako, A., (2017) Spatial Epidemiology of Road Traffic Crashes and Mortality in Nigeria, 2007-2015, Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 20(5), 1-11, DOI: 10.9734/BJAST/2017/33190.
  • [11] Unal, A., Atalay, A., Codur, M.Y., (2016) Evaluation of Traffic Accidents Happening in Recent Years in Turkey, International Conference on Transportation and Traffic Engineering (ICTTE 2016), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320800768.
  • [12] Wang, W., Yuan, Z., Yang, Y., Yang, X., Liu, Y., 2019. Factors influencing traffic accident frequencies on urban roads: A spatial panel time-fixed effects error model. PLoS ONE 14(4): e0214539. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214539
  • [13] Akgungor, A.P., Dogan, E., (2009) An Artificial Intelligent Approach To Traffic Accident Estimation: Model Development and Application, Transport, 24:2, 135-142, DOI: 10.3846/1648-4142.2009.24.
  • [14] Akalin, K.B., Karacasu, M., Altın, A.Y., Ergul B., (2016) Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed In Traffic Accidents in Turkey. IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 44 052060.
  • [15] Bicer, B.K., Unlu, H., Ozcebe, H., (2018) Traffic Accidents in Ten Years in Turkey: Advanced Analysis of National Data, European Journal of Public Health, 28(4), 319-320, cky214.032, DOI:10.1093/eurpub/cky214.032.
  • [16] Bayata, H.F., Bayrak, O.U., Pehlivan, H., (2018) Characteristics and Estimation of Traffic Accident Counts Using Artificial Neural Network and Multivariate Analysis: A Case Study in Turkey, North Transit Interurban. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 27(4), 2290-2298.
  • [17] Dereli, M.A., Erdogan, S., (2017), A New Model For Determining The Traffic Accident Black Spots Using GIS-Aided Spatial Statistical Methods, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 103, 106-117.
  • [18] Butt, A., Ahmad, S.S., Sheikh, A.S., Shabbir, R., Erum, S., (2017) GIS Based Surveillance of Road Traffic Accidents (RTA) Risk for Rawalpindi City: A Geo-Statistical Approach, Kuwait Journal of Science, 44(4), 129-134.
  • [19] Hayidso, T.H., Gemeda, D.O., Abraham, A.M., (2019) Identifying Road Traffic Accidents Hotspots Areas Using GIS in Ethiopia: A Case Study of Hosanna Town, Transport and Telecommunication, 20(2), 123-132.
  • [20] Anselin, L., (1995) Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA, Geographical Analysis, 27, 93-115.
  • [21] Anselin, L., (2002) Under the Hood: Issues in the Specification and Interpretation of Spatial Regression Models, Agricultural economics, 27(3), 247–267.
  • [22] Anselin, L., Gallo, J.L., Jayet H., (2008) Spatial Panel Econometrics, In: Mátyás L, Sevestre P (eds) The Econometrics of Panel Data, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 625-660.
  • [23] Aktas, S.G., Kumtepe, E.G., Kantar, Y.M., Ulukan, I.C., Aydin, S., Aksoy, T., Er, F., (2019) Improving Gender Equality in Higher Education In Turkey, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 12(1), 167-189.
  • [24] Kantar, Y.M., Gunay, S.A., (2016) Spatial Correlation Analysis of Unemployment Rates in Turkey, Journal of Eastern Europe Research in Business and Economics, 1-9.
  • [25] Yidirim, V., Kantar, Y.M., (2020) Robust Estimation Approach for Spatial Error Model, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, DOI:10.1080/00949655.2020.1740223.
  • [26] Scrucca L., (2005) Clustering Multivariate Spatial Data Based On Local Measures of Spatial Autocorrelation. An Application To The Labour Market Of Umbria, Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica, Università degli Studi di Perugia, n. 20, Ottobre 2005.
  • [27] Lesage, J.P., Pace, R.K., (2009) Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
  • [28] Getis, A. Ord, J.K., (1992) The Analysis Of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics. Geographical Analysis, 24, 189-206.
  • [29] Getis, A. Aldstadt, J., (2004) Constructing The Spatial Weights Matrix Using A Local Statistic. Geographical Analysis, 36, 90-104.
  • [30] Boots, B., (2002) Local Measures of Spatial Association, Ecoscience, 9(2), 168–176.
  • [31] Pillai N., Vijayamohanan., (2016) Panel Data Analysis with Stata Part 1: Fixed Effects and Random Effects Models, Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/76869/.
  • [32] Park, H.M., (2011) Practical Guides To Panel Data Modelling: A Step-By-Step Analysis Using Stata. Tutorial Working Paper. International University of Japan, Minami Uonuma.
  • [33] Elhorst, J.P., (2003) Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models, International Regional Science Review, 26(3), 244-268.
  • [34] Elhorst, J.P., (2010) Spatial Panel Data Models, In: Fischer M., Getis A., eds Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-03647-7_19.
  • [35] Cliff, A. D. Ord, J. K., (1981) Spatial Processes - Models and Applications, London.

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT STATISTICS IN THE PROVINCES OF TURKEY

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4, 1667 - 1680, 05.10.2021

Öz

The aim of the study is to describe and model the spatial distribution of the road traffic accidents (RTAs) rate with the factors considering space–time relationship for the period between 2013–2018 in the provinces of Turkey. The RTA rate is modelled with the factors which are population, the number of different types of motor vehicles registered, lengths of three types of provincial roads and these factors measured in the neighbours. Firstly, spatial maps are used to demonstrate the spatial variability of RTAs in Turkey. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses are conducted to demonstrate whether the RTA in provinces with high rates of accidents show similar clusters. Spatial regression and panel models are considered a solution to examine the space–time relationship between the RTA and RTA’s neighbourhood characteristics. We found that the RTA rate is not distributed randomly across Turkey. Spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of accidents is non-random (Moran’s I changes between 0.52 and 0.59 with p <0.001). Moreover, while LISA analysis demonstrates the provinces determined as local clusters, the fixed effects models with different spatial structures show that the RTA rate is positively correlated with number of cars, vans, private vehicles and length of asphalt roads, other factors are negatively correlated and also non-asphalt road is not significant to explain the RTA rate. On the other hand, spatial parameters are significant in all models (p <0.1) and neighbouring region characteristics in terms of explanatory variables do not affect the explanation upon the RTA rate.

Kaynakça

  • [1] Colak, H.E., Memisoglu, T., Erbas, Y.S., Bediroglu, S., (2018) Hot Spot Analysis Based On Network Spatial Weights To Determine Spatial Statistics Of Traffic Accidents In Rize, Turkey, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11: 151.
  • [2] Işıldar, S., (2006) Road Accidents in Turkey 1995–2004, IATSS Research, 30(2), 115−118.
  • [3] Erdogan, S., (2009) Explorative Spatial Analysis of Traffic Accident Statistics and Road Mortality among the Provinces of Turkey, Journal of Safety Research, 40, 341–351.
  • [4] Levine, N., Kim, K.E., Nitz, L.H., (1995) Spatial Analysis of Honolulu Motor Vehicle Crashes: II. Zonal Generators, Accid. Anal. Prev., 27, 675–685.
  • [5] Papadimitriou E., Eksler V., Yannis G., Lassarre S., (2013) Modelling the spatial variation of road safety in Greece, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Transport, 49–58.
  • [6] LaScala, E.A., Gerber, D., Gruenewald, P.J., (2000) Demographic and Environmental Correlates of Pedestrian Injury Collisions: A Spatial Analysis, Accid. Anal. Prev., 32, 651–658.
  • [7] Zhixiao, X., Jun, Y., (2013) Detecting Traffic Accident Clusters with Network Kernel Density Estimation and Local Spatial Statistics: An Integrated Approach, Journal of Transport Geography, 31, 64-71.
  • [8] Soro, W.L., Zhou, Y., Wayoro, D., (2017) Crash Rates Analysis in China Using A Spatial Panel Model, IATSS Research, 41, 123–128.
  • [9] Lakes, T.A., (2017) Spatially Explicit Analysis of Traffic Accidents Involving Pedestrians and Cyclists in Berlin, Bundesgesundheitsblatt-Gesundheitsforschung-Gesundheitsschutz, 60 (12), 1328-1335.
  • [10] Daniel, O., Adejumo, O., Oritogun, K., Mautin, G., Salako, A., (2017) Spatial Epidemiology of Road Traffic Crashes and Mortality in Nigeria, 2007-2015, Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology, 20(5), 1-11, DOI: 10.9734/BJAST/2017/33190.
  • [11] Unal, A., Atalay, A., Codur, M.Y., (2016) Evaluation of Traffic Accidents Happening in Recent Years in Turkey, International Conference on Transportation and Traffic Engineering (ICTTE 2016), https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320800768.
  • [12] Wang, W., Yuan, Z., Yang, Y., Yang, X., Liu, Y., 2019. Factors influencing traffic accident frequencies on urban roads: A spatial panel time-fixed effects error model. PLoS ONE 14(4): e0214539. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214539
  • [13] Akgungor, A.P., Dogan, E., (2009) An Artificial Intelligent Approach To Traffic Accident Estimation: Model Development and Application, Transport, 24:2, 135-142, DOI: 10.3846/1648-4142.2009.24.
  • [14] Akalin, K.B., Karacasu, M., Altın, A.Y., Ergul B., (2016) Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed In Traffic Accidents in Turkey. IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 44 052060.
  • [15] Bicer, B.K., Unlu, H., Ozcebe, H., (2018) Traffic Accidents in Ten Years in Turkey: Advanced Analysis of National Data, European Journal of Public Health, 28(4), 319-320, cky214.032, DOI:10.1093/eurpub/cky214.032.
  • [16] Bayata, H.F., Bayrak, O.U., Pehlivan, H., (2018) Characteristics and Estimation of Traffic Accident Counts Using Artificial Neural Network and Multivariate Analysis: A Case Study in Turkey, North Transit Interurban. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 27(4), 2290-2298.
  • [17] Dereli, M.A., Erdogan, S., (2017), A New Model For Determining The Traffic Accident Black Spots Using GIS-Aided Spatial Statistical Methods, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 103, 106-117.
  • [18] Butt, A., Ahmad, S.S., Sheikh, A.S., Shabbir, R., Erum, S., (2017) GIS Based Surveillance of Road Traffic Accidents (RTA) Risk for Rawalpindi City: A Geo-Statistical Approach, Kuwait Journal of Science, 44(4), 129-134.
  • [19] Hayidso, T.H., Gemeda, D.O., Abraham, A.M., (2019) Identifying Road Traffic Accidents Hotspots Areas Using GIS in Ethiopia: A Case Study of Hosanna Town, Transport and Telecommunication, 20(2), 123-132.
  • [20] Anselin, L., (1995) Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA, Geographical Analysis, 27, 93-115.
  • [21] Anselin, L., (2002) Under the Hood: Issues in the Specification and Interpretation of Spatial Regression Models, Agricultural economics, 27(3), 247–267.
  • [22] Anselin, L., Gallo, J.L., Jayet H., (2008) Spatial Panel Econometrics, In: Mátyás L, Sevestre P (eds) The Econometrics of Panel Data, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 625-660.
  • [23] Aktas, S.G., Kumtepe, E.G., Kantar, Y.M., Ulukan, I.C., Aydin, S., Aksoy, T., Er, F., (2019) Improving Gender Equality in Higher Education In Turkey, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 12(1), 167-189.
  • [24] Kantar, Y.M., Gunay, S.A., (2016) Spatial Correlation Analysis of Unemployment Rates in Turkey, Journal of Eastern Europe Research in Business and Economics, 1-9.
  • [25] Yidirim, V., Kantar, Y.M., (2020) Robust Estimation Approach for Spatial Error Model, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, DOI:10.1080/00949655.2020.1740223.
  • [26] Scrucca L., (2005) Clustering Multivariate Spatial Data Based On Local Measures of Spatial Autocorrelation. An Application To The Labour Market Of Umbria, Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica, Università degli Studi di Perugia, n. 20, Ottobre 2005.
  • [27] Lesage, J.P., Pace, R.K., (2009) Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
  • [28] Getis, A. Ord, J.K., (1992) The Analysis Of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics. Geographical Analysis, 24, 189-206.
  • [29] Getis, A. Aldstadt, J., (2004) Constructing The Spatial Weights Matrix Using A Local Statistic. Geographical Analysis, 36, 90-104.
  • [30] Boots, B., (2002) Local Measures of Spatial Association, Ecoscience, 9(2), 168–176.
  • [31] Pillai N., Vijayamohanan., (2016) Panel Data Analysis with Stata Part 1: Fixed Effects and Random Effects Models, Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/76869/.
  • [32] Park, H.M., (2011) Practical Guides To Panel Data Modelling: A Step-By-Step Analysis Using Stata. Tutorial Working Paper. International University of Japan, Minami Uonuma.
  • [33] Elhorst, J.P., (2003) Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models, International Regional Science Review, 26(3), 244-268.
  • [34] Elhorst, J.P., (2010) Spatial Panel Data Models, In: Fischer M., Getis A., eds Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-03647-7_19.
  • [35] Cliff, A. D. Ord, J. K., (1981) Spatial Processes - Models and Applications, London.
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Research Articles
Yazarlar

Vural Yıldırım Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-6517-7849

Yeliz Mert Kantar Bu kişi benim 0000-0001-7101-8943

Yayımlanma Tarihi 5 Ekim 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Mart 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

Vancouver Yıldırım V, Mert Kantar Y. SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT STATISTICS IN THE PROVINCES OF TURKEY. SIGMA. 2021;38(4):1667-80.

IMPORTANT NOTE: JOURNAL SUBMISSION LINK https://eds.yildiz.edu.tr/sigma/