A TRENDLINE ANALYSIS FOR HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA OF OECD MEMBERS

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 23 - 35, 01.03.2020

Abdulkadir Atalan Zeliha Çınar Mehmet Çınar

Öz

The aim of this study was to predict the per capita health expenditures (HE PC) of OECD countries for the future. Datasets were used to evaluate the accuracy of HE PC estimation of OECD members from 2000 to 2017 shared online by OECD DATA in this study. Forecasting calculations about HE PC cover the years 2018-2025. Estimation series method derived by trend-line equations was used to make any predictions for the future years in the methodology part of the present research. A trend line analysis by generating one linear equation and seven non-linear equations was carried out within this study. The minimum value of the amount of the HE PC was counted as $3,930.13 with the 4th order equation for the year 2018 and the highest amount was calculated as $5,760.47 for the year 2025 with the equation of exponential distribution. The average amount of the HE PC was calculated as $4,616.62 which can be argued as a decrease in the budget allocated for the HE PC. The minimization of the standard error of the mean level was the secondary goal of the work in order to ensure that the results obtained for estimation were consistent with the data used. Predictive equations for HE PC values were found to be suitable for use as a consistent analysis tool for future outcomes. It can be emphasized that there is no drawback in the use of estimation equations for other indicators in the field of healthcare, as only the use for HE PC was verified in this study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Health expenditures per capita, OECD members, estimation series, trendline analysis

Kaynakça

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