Spatial analysis of earthquakes in and around the northern Anatolian Fault Zone

Year 2024, Volume: 42 Issue: 6, 1813 - 1825, 09.12.2024

Cenk İçöz , Kadir Özgür Peker

Abstract

Earthquakes are seen to be complex phenomena when their occurrence reasons are investigated. Factors such as the presence of a fault line and between earthquake relationships like foreshocks, mainshocks, and aftershocks may be considered as some of the sources for this complexity. Estimating the earthquake risk and modeling the earthquake intensities over a region is vital in minimizing future tangible and intangible losses. The principle aim of this study is to examine the clusters and seismicity of moderate to major earthquake occurrences in the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). For this purpose, a rectangular region including the NAFZ is selected as a study region to analyze the earthquake patterns. Attributes of moderate to major earthquakes with a magnitude higher than 5, which are listed regarding time interval and space domain in the earthquake catalog, are visualized owing to exploratory data analysis techniques. Spatial patterns for the earthquakes are revealed, and simulations of the earthquakes are realized using spatial processes within the specified time and space domain. Intensity changes and related earthquake risks are disclosed. The western part of the region is classified as having a higher risk for future earthquakes because of having higher previous earthquake and magnitude intensities.

Keywords

Intensity, Kernel Density Estimation, North Anatolian Fault Zone, Spatial Data, Spatial Point Processes

References

• REFERENCES [1] Cressie NAC. Statistics for Spatial Data Revised Edition. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley; 1993. [CrossRef]
• [2] Al-Ahmadi K, Al-Amri A, See L. A spatial statistical analysis of the occurrence of earthquakes along the Red Seafloor spreading: clusters of seismicity. Arab J Geosci 2014;7:2893–2904. [CrossRef]
• [3] Öztürk S. Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu ve civarındaki güncel deprem aktivitesinin bölgesel ve zamana bağlı analizleri. Yerbilimleri, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Yerbilimleri Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Bülteni 2017;38:193–228.
• [4] Akol B, Bekler T. Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for NW Turkey. Nat Hazards 2013;68:837–853. [CrossRef]
• [5] Sayil N. Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model. Acta Geophys 2013;61:338–356. [CrossRef]
• [6] Coban KH, Sayil N. Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones. Arab J Geosci 2020;13:1–16. [CrossRef]
• [7] Sayil N. Evaluation of the seismicity for the Marmara region with statistical approaches. Acta Geod Geophys 2014;49:265–281. [CrossRef] [8] Ketin I. Über die tektonisch-mechanischen Folgerungen aus den grossen anatolischen Erdbeben des letzten Dezenniums. Geologische Rundschau 1948;36:77–83. [Deutsch] [CrossRef]
• [9] Bohnhoff M, Martínez-Garzón P, Bulut F, Stierle E and Ben-Zion Y (2016). Maximum earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian fault zone. Tectonophysics 2016;674:147– 165. [CrossRef]
• [10] Bayrak Y, Öztürk S, Çınar H, Kalafat D, Tsapanos TM, Koravos GC, et al. Estimating earthquake hazard parameters from instrumental data for different regions in and around Turkey. Eng Geol 2009;105:200–210. [CrossRef]
• [11] Bozkurt E. Neotectonics of Turkey-a synthesis. Geodinamica Acta 2001;14:3–30. [CrossRef]
• [12] Schabenberger O, Gotway CA. Statistical methods for spatial data analysis. Boca Raton, FL, USA: Chapman and Hall/CRC; 2017. [CrossRef]
• [13] Illian J, Penttinen A, Stoyan H, Stoyan D. Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns (Vol. 70). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons; 2008. [CrossRef]
• [14] Baddeley A. Analyzing spatial point patterns in R. Workshop Notes 2008;12:1–199.
• [15] Ripley BD. Spatial Processes. New York: Wiley; 1981.
• [16] Ripley BD. Modeling spatial patterns. J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol 1977;39:172–192. [CrossRef]
• [17] Aryal NR. Point Pattern Analysis. Dissertation submitted for Master of Science in Mathematics with Modern Applications, Department of Mathematics The University of York UK, 2011. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.459.8842&rep=rep1&type=pdf
• [18] Diggle PJ. Spatial analysis of Spatial Point Patterns (second Edition), London: Edward Arnold; 2009.
• [19] Van Lieshout MNM, Baddeley AJ. A nonparametric measure of spatial interaction in point patterns. Stat Neerland 1996;50:344–361. [CrossRef] [20] Silverman BW. Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Oxfordshire: Routledge;1986
• [21] Gatrell AC. Density Estimation and the visualization of point patterns, in: H.J. Hearnshaw, D.J. Unwin, (Eds.), Visualization in geographical information systems. Chicheste: John Wiley; 1994. p. 65– 75.
• [22] R. Core Team R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, 2016. Available at: https://www.R-project.org/ Last Accessed Date: 11.11.2024.
• [23] Randy B, Buliung RN. and Remmel TK. Aspace: A collection of functions for estimating centrographic statistics and computational geometries for spatial point patterns. R package version 3.2, 2012. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=aspace Last Accessed Date: 11.11.2024.
• [24] Harte D, Brownrigg R. ssBase: Base Functions for SSL. R package version 2.3-6. Statistics Research Associates, Wellington, 2017. ftp://ftp.gns.cri.nz/pub/davidh/sslib/r-repo Last Accessed Date: 11.11.2024.
• [25] Naylor M, Orfanogiannaki K, Harte D (2010). Exploratory data analysis: magnitude, space, and time. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis. doi:10.5078/corssa-92330203
• [26] Baddeley A, Rubak E, Turner R. Spatial Point Patterns: Methodology and Applications with R. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC; 2015. [CrossRef]
• [27] Aki K. Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N= a-bM and its confidence limits. Bull Earthq Res Inst Tokyo Univ 1965;43:237–239.
• [28] Öztürk S. Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis. Acta Geophysica 2011.