Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis

Hüseyin Şen; Ayşe Kaya

doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410

Araştırma Makalesi

Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis

Yıl 2017, , 107 - 143, 31.10.2017

Hüseyin Şen , Ayşe Kaya

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410

Öz

This study undertakes a topic, which stands at an important issue of many
countries’ economic agenda from the viewpoint of growth and
employment; in the light of existing theoretical as well as empirical studies
in this regard the study aims to review and to make an inference with regard to
the effect of fiscal consolidation on growth and employment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fiscal Consolidation, Economic Growth, Employment, Fiscal Trap, Keynesian and Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy

Kaynakça

Afonso, A. (2006), Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in EuropeNew Evidence, The European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No: 675, p. 52.
Afonso, A. (2010), “Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in Europe: New Evidence”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol: 17, Issue: 2, pp. 105-109.
Afonso, A., Nickel, C. & Rother, P.C. (2006), “Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries”, Review of World Economics, Vol: 142, pp. 402-421.
Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (1998), “Tales of Fiscal Adjustment”, Economic Policy, Vol: 27, pp. 487-545.
Alesina, A., Ardagna, S. & Tavares, J. T. (1998), “The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol: 29, Issue: 1, pp. 197-266.
Afonso, A. & Jalles, J. T. (2012), “Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations”, Applied Financial Economics, Vol: 22, pp. 1053-1061.
Agnello, L., Castro, V. & Sousa, R.M. (2013), “What Determines the Duration of a Fiscal Consolidation Program?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol: 37, pp. 113-134.
Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (2010), “Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending”, in Brown, J.R. (Ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol: 24, No: 1, pp. 35-68.
Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (2013), “The Design of Fiscal Adjustments”, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol: 27, Issue: 1, pp. 19-68.
Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., Perotti, R. & Schiantarelli, F. (2002), “Fiscal policy, Profits, and Investment”, American Economic Review, Vol: 92, pp. 571-89.
Alesina, A. & Perotti, R. (1995), “Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries”, Economic Policy, Vol: 10(21), pp. 205-248.
Alesina, A. & Perotti, R. (1997), “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol: 44, pp. 210-248.
Ardagna, S. (2004), “Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why”, European Economic Review, Vol: 48, pp. 1047-1074.
Arestis, P., Kaya, A. & Şen, H. (2017), “Does Fiscal Consolidation Promote Economic Growth and Employment? Evidence from the PIIGGS Countries”, Mimeo.
Atas, E. (2013), Fiscal Consolidation in Turkey: The Impact of Reforms and Institutions on Debt Sustainability: A Political Economy Perspective, M.Sc. Dissertation, Universitas Warwicennis, UK.
Banerjee, R. & Zampolli, F. (2016), What Drives the Short-run Costs of Fiscal Consolidation? Evidence from OECD Countries, BIS Working Papers, No: 553, p. 34.
Barro, R. J. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol: 82, No: 6, pp. 1095-1117.
Bermperoglou, D., Pappa, E. & Vella, E. (2013), Spending-based Fiscal Consolidations and Their Effects on Output and Unemployment, London, CEPR, Discussion Paper, No: 9383, p. 53.
Bertola, G. & Drazen, A. (1993), “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity”, American Economic Review, Vol: 83, Issue: 1, pp. 11-26.
Bhattacharya, R. & Mukherjee, S. (2013), “Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Economies: An Empirical Study”, Applied Economics, Vol: 45 (29), pp. 4122-4136.
Blanchard, O. J. (1990), “Commont on the F. Giavazzi and M. Pagano Article: Can severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp. 75-110.
Blanchard, O. & R, Perotti (2002), “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol: 117, pp. 1329-68.
Briotti, M. G. (2002), Fiscal Consolidation in EU Countries in the Nineties: New Facts and Policy Implications, A Paper by the European Central Bank Directorate General Economics Fiscal Policies Division, p. 52.
Brückner, M. & Pappa, E. (2012), “Fiscal Expansions, Unemployment, and Labour Force Participation: Theory and Evidence”, International Economic Review, Vol: 53, No: 1, pp. 205-228.
Cimadomo, J. & Bénassy-Quéré, A. (2012), “Changing Patterns of Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol: 34(3), pp. 845-873.
Daveri, F. & Tabellini, G. (2000), “Unemployment, Growth, and Taxation in Industrial Countries”, Economic Policy, Vol: 15, Issue: 30, pp. 47-104.
Devries, P, Guajardo, J., Leigh, D. & Pescatori, A. (2011), A New Action-Based Data Set of Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Working Paper, No: 11/128, p. 90.
Dinçer, N. N. & Özdemir, Z. A. (2009), “The Quality of Fiscal Adjustment: An Empirical Analysis of Turkey”, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol: 12 No: 2, pp. 111-126.
Dökmen, G. & Vural, T. (2011), “Maliye Politikalarının Keynesyen Olmayan Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 161, ss. 118-132.
Erceg, J.C. & Lindé, J. (2013), “Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Hikes”, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Vol: 37, pp. 422-445.
Erdoğan, L. (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol: 7, No: 2, pp.117-132.
Escudero, V. & Mourelo, E. L. (2017), “The employment effect of changes in the composition of fiscal consolidations”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol: 31, Issue: 1, pp. 45-68.
Feldstein, M. (1982), “Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol: 9, No: 1, pp. 1-20.
Fels, G. & Froehlish, H-P. (1987), “Germany and the World Economy: A German View”, Economic Policy, Vol: 2, Issue: 4, pp. 177-195.
Giavazzi, F. & Pagano, M. (1990), Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries, In O.J. Blanchard and S. Fischer (eds.), NBER Macroeconomic Annual. Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 75-110.
Giavazzi, F. & Pagano, M. (1996), “Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, Vol: 3, pp. 67-103.
Giavazzi, F., Jappelli, T. & Pagano, M. (2000), “Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence for Industrial and Developing Countries”, European Economic Review, Vol: 44, pp. 1269-1289.
Giordano, R., Momigliano, S., Neri, S. & Perotti, R. (2007), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR Model”, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol: 23, pp. 707-733.
Gupta, S., Clements, B., Baldacci, E. & Mulas-Granados, C. (2004), “The Persistence of Fiscal Adjustments in Developing Countries”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol: 11(4), pp. 209-212.
Hannsgen, G. & Papadimitriou, D. (2012), “Fiscal Traps and Macro Policy After the Eurozone Crisis”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Public Policy Brief, No: 127, p.17.
Hemming, R., Kell, M. & Mahfouz, S. (2002), The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity -A Review of the Literature, IMF Working Paper, No: WP/02/208, p. 53.
Hernández de Cos, P. & Moral-Benito, E. (2013), “What Drives a Successful Fiscal Consolidation?”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol: 20, pp.748-753.
Heylen, F. & Everaert, G. (2000), “Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A multivariate Analysis”, Public Choice, Vol: 105, pp. 103-124.
Hellwing, M., Neumann, M. J. M., Vaubel, R. & Miller, M. (1987), “Economic Policy in Germany: Was there a Turnaround?”, Economic Policy, Vol: 2, No: 5, pp. 103-145.
IMF (2010), Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation, in World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October 2010, pp. 93-124.
İlgün, M. F. (2010), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezinin Temelleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 35, ss. 233-253.
Kónya, L. (2006), “Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach”, Economic Modelling, Vol: 23(6), pp. 978-992.
Maroto, R. & Mulas-Granados, C. (2007), “What Makes Fiscal Policy Sustainable? A Survival Analysis of Fiscal Consolidations in Europe”, Public Choice, Vol: 130(3-4), pp. 24-46.
McDermott, C. J. & Wescott, R. F. (1996), An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments, IMF Staff Papers, Vol: 43, No: 4, pp. 725-53.
Miller, S. M. & Russek, F.S. (2003), “The Relationship between Large Fiscal Adjustments and Short-Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes”, Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol: 21, No: 1, pp. 41-58.
Miller, M., Skidelsky, R. & Weller, P. (1990), Fear of Deficit Financing  Is It Rational?, in Rudiger Dornbush and Draghi (Eds.), Public Debt Management: Theory and History İçinde, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, pp. 293-310.
Monacelli, T., Perotti, R. & Trigari, A. (2010), “Unemployment Fiscal Multipliers”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol: 97(5), pp. 531-553.
Mundle, S., Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Das, D. (2011), “Fiscal Consolidation with High Growth: A Policy Simulation Model for India”, Economic Modelling, Vol: 28(6), pp. 2657-2668.
OECD (2012), What are the Best Policy Instruments for Fiscal Consolidation?, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No: 12, April 2012, p. 12.
Özatay, F. (2008), Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, Working Paper, No: 08-05, p. 29.
Perotti, R. (2005), Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries, CEPR Discussion Papers, No: 4842, p. 60.
Perotti, R. (1996), “Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters”, The American Economic Review, Vol: 86(2), pp. 105-110.
Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (2010), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks,” American Economic Review, Vol: 100(3), pp. 763-801.
Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (2004), “A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications,” American Economic Review, Vol: 94, No: 4, pp. 1055-84.
Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (1989), Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz, in NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol: 4, Ed. by Olivier J. Blanchard and Stanley Fischer, Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 121-170.
Ricardo, D. (1951[1820]), On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, Ed. by Piero Sraffo: Cambridge University Press.
Seater, J. J. (1993), “Ricardian Equivalance”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol: 31, pp.142-190.
Sutherland, A. (1997), “Fiscal Crisis and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effect of Fiscal Policy?”, Journal of Public Economics, Vol: 65, Issue: 2, pp. 147-162.
Şen, H. & Kaya, A. (2015), “Ekonomik Krizlerin Değişmeyen İmdatçısı: Maliye Politikası”, Sosyoekonomi, Sayı: 23, Ocak-Mart, ss. 55-86.
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Tapsoba, S. J. A. (2014), “Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India”, Economic Modelling, Vol: 43, pp. 225-237.
Turan, T. & Cangir, N. (2014), “Fiscal Adjustment and Stimuli: Turkish Case”, Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, Vol: 3, Issue: 1, pp. 71-91.
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Wagschal, U. & Wenzelburger, G. (2012), “When do Governments Consolidate? A Quantitative Comparative Analysis of 23 OECD Countries (1980-2005)”, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, Vol: 14(1), pp. 45-71.
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Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz

Yıl 2017, , 107 - 143, 31.10.2017

Hüseyin Şen , Ayşe Kaya

https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410

Öz

Bu çalışma son yıllarda ülkelerin ekonomik gündemlerinin başköşesinde yer
alan bir kavram olan mali konsolidasyonu, büyüme ve istihdam perspektifinden
ele almakta; teorik ve ampirik literatürde bu minvalde yapılan tartışmalar
ışığında mali konsolidasyonun büyüme ve istihdam üzerindeki kısa ve uzun
dönemli etkilerini gözden geçirmeyi ve bir çıkarımda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mali Konsolidasyon, Büyüme, İstihdam, Mali Tuzak, Maliye Politikasının Keynesyen ve Keynesyen Olmayan Etkileri

Kaynakça

Afonso, A. (2006), Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in EuropeNew Evidence, The European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, No: 675, p. 52.
Afonso, A. (2010), “Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in Europe: New Evidence”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol: 17, Issue: 2, pp. 105-109.
Afonso, A., Nickel, C. & Rother, P.C. (2006), “Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries”, Review of World Economics, Vol: 142, pp. 402-421.
Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (1998), “Tales of Fiscal Adjustment”, Economic Policy, Vol: 27, pp. 487-545.
Alesina, A., Ardagna, S. & Tavares, J. T. (1998), “The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol: 29, Issue: 1, pp. 197-266.
Afonso, A. & Jalles, J. T. (2012), “Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations”, Applied Financial Economics, Vol: 22, pp. 1053-1061.
Agnello, L., Castro, V. & Sousa, R.M. (2013), “What Determines the Duration of a Fiscal Consolidation Program?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol: 37, pp. 113-134.
Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (2010), “Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending”, in Brown, J.R. (Ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol: 24, No: 1, pp. 35-68.
Alesina, A. & Ardagna, S. (2013), “The Design of Fiscal Adjustments”, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol: 27, Issue: 1, pp. 19-68.
Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., Perotti, R. & Schiantarelli, F. (2002), “Fiscal policy, Profits, and Investment”, American Economic Review, Vol: 92, pp. 571-89.
Alesina, A. & Perotti, R. (1995), “Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries”, Economic Policy, Vol: 10(21), pp. 205-248.
Alesina, A. & Perotti, R. (1997), “Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol: 44, pp. 210-248.
Ardagna, S. (2004), “Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why”, European Economic Review, Vol: 48, pp. 1047-1074.
Arestis, P., Kaya, A. & Şen, H. (2017), “Does Fiscal Consolidation Promote Economic Growth and Employment? Evidence from the PIIGGS Countries”, Mimeo.
Atas, E. (2013), Fiscal Consolidation in Turkey: The Impact of Reforms and Institutions on Debt Sustainability: A Political Economy Perspective, M.Sc. Dissertation, Universitas Warwicennis, UK.
Banerjee, R. & Zampolli, F. (2016), What Drives the Short-run Costs of Fiscal Consolidation? Evidence from OECD Countries, BIS Working Papers, No: 553, p. 34.
Barro, R. J. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol: 82, No: 6, pp. 1095-1117.
Bermperoglou, D., Pappa, E. & Vella, E. (2013), Spending-based Fiscal Consolidations and Their Effects on Output and Unemployment, London, CEPR, Discussion Paper, No: 9383, p. 53.
Bertola, G. & Drazen, A. (1993), “Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity”, American Economic Review, Vol: 83, Issue: 1, pp. 11-26.
Bhattacharya, R. & Mukherjee, S. (2013), “Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Economies: An Empirical Study”, Applied Economics, Vol: 45 (29), pp. 4122-4136.
Blanchard, O. J. (1990), “Commont on the F. Giavazzi and M. Pagano Article: Can severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, pp. 75-110.
Blanchard, O. & R, Perotti (2002), “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol: 117, pp. 1329-68.
Briotti, M. G. (2002), Fiscal Consolidation in EU Countries in the Nineties: New Facts and Policy Implications, A Paper by the European Central Bank Directorate General Economics Fiscal Policies Division, p. 52.
Brückner, M. & Pappa, E. (2012), “Fiscal Expansions, Unemployment, and Labour Force Participation: Theory and Evidence”, International Economic Review, Vol: 53, No: 1, pp. 205-228.
Cimadomo, J. & Bénassy-Quéré, A. (2012), “Changing Patterns of Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Germany, the UK and the US”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol: 34(3), pp. 845-873.
Daveri, F. & Tabellini, G. (2000), “Unemployment, Growth, and Taxation in Industrial Countries”, Economic Policy, Vol: 15, Issue: 30, pp. 47-104.
Devries, P, Guajardo, J., Leigh, D. & Pescatori, A. (2011), A New Action-Based Data Set of Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Working Paper, No: 11/128, p. 90.
Dinçer, N. N. & Özdemir, Z. A. (2009), “The Quality of Fiscal Adjustment: An Empirical Analysis of Turkey”, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Vol: 12 No: 2, pp. 111-126.
Dökmen, G. & Vural, T. (2011), “Maliye Politikalarının Keynesyen Olmayan Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 161, ss. 118-132.
Erceg, J.C. & Lindé, J. (2013), “Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Hikes”, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Vol: 37, pp. 422-445.
Erdoğan, L. (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Vol: 7, No: 2, pp.117-132.
Escudero, V. & Mourelo, E. L. (2017), “The employment effect of changes in the composition of fiscal consolidations”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol: 31, Issue: 1, pp. 45-68.
Feldstein, M. (1982), “Government Deficits and Aggregate Demand”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol: 9, No: 1, pp. 1-20.
Fels, G. & Froehlish, H-P. (1987), “Germany and the World Economy: A German View”, Economic Policy, Vol: 2, Issue: 4, pp. 177-195.
Giavazzi, F. & Pagano, M. (1990), Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries, In O.J. Blanchard and S. Fischer (eds.), NBER Macroeconomic Annual. Cambridge: MIT Press, pp. 75-110.
Giavazzi, F. & Pagano, M. (1996), “Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience”, Swedish Economic Policy Review, Vol: 3, pp. 67-103.
Giavazzi, F., Jappelli, T. & Pagano, M. (2000), “Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence for Industrial and Developing Countries”, European Economic Review, Vol: 44, pp. 1269-1289.
Giordano, R., Momigliano, S., Neri, S. & Perotti, R. (2007), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR Model”, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol: 23, pp. 707-733.
Gupta, S., Clements, B., Baldacci, E. & Mulas-Granados, C. (2004), “The Persistence of Fiscal Adjustments in Developing Countries”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol: 11(4), pp. 209-212.
Hannsgen, G. & Papadimitriou, D. (2012), “Fiscal Traps and Macro Policy After the Eurozone Crisis”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Public Policy Brief, No: 127, p.17.
Hemming, R., Kell, M. & Mahfouz, S. (2002), The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity -A Review of the Literature, IMF Working Paper, No: WP/02/208, p. 53.
Hernández de Cos, P. & Moral-Benito, E. (2013), “What Drives a Successful Fiscal Consolidation?”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol: 20, pp.748-753.
Heylen, F. & Everaert, G. (2000), “Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A multivariate Analysis”, Public Choice, Vol: 105, pp. 103-124.
Hellwing, M., Neumann, M. J. M., Vaubel, R. & Miller, M. (1987), “Economic Policy in Germany: Was there a Turnaround?”, Economic Policy, Vol: 2, No: 5, pp. 103-145.
IMF (2010), Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation, in World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October 2010, pp. 93-124.
İlgün, M. F. (2010), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezinin Temelleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 35, ss. 233-253.
Kónya, L. (2006), “Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach”, Economic Modelling, Vol: 23(6), pp. 978-992.
Maroto, R. & Mulas-Granados, C. (2007), “What Makes Fiscal Policy Sustainable? A Survival Analysis of Fiscal Consolidations in Europe”, Public Choice, Vol: 130(3-4), pp. 24-46.
McDermott, C. J. & Wescott, R. F. (1996), An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments, IMF Staff Papers, Vol: 43, No: 4, pp. 725-53.
Miller, S. M. & Russek, F.S. (2003), “The Relationship between Large Fiscal Adjustments and Short-Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes”, Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol: 21, No: 1, pp. 41-58.
Miller, M., Skidelsky, R. & Weller, P. (1990), Fear of Deficit Financing  Is It Rational?, in Rudiger Dornbush and Draghi (Eds.), Public Debt Management: Theory and History İçinde, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, pp. 293-310.
Monacelli, T., Perotti, R. & Trigari, A. (2010), “Unemployment Fiscal Multipliers”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol: 97(5), pp. 531-553.
Mundle, S., Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Das, D. (2011), “Fiscal Consolidation with High Growth: A Policy Simulation Model for India”, Economic Modelling, Vol: 28(6), pp. 2657-2668.
OECD (2012), What are the Best Policy Instruments for Fiscal Consolidation?, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No: 12, April 2012, p. 12.
Özatay, F. (2008), Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, Working Paper, No: 08-05, p. 29.
Perotti, R. (2005), Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries, CEPR Discussion Papers, No: 4842, p. 60.
Perotti, R. (1996), “Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters”, The American Economic Review, Vol: 86(2), pp. 105-110.
Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (2010), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks,” American Economic Review, Vol: 100(3), pp. 763-801.
Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (2004), “A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications,” American Economic Review, Vol: 94, No: 4, pp. 1055-84.
Romer, C. D. & Romer, D. H. (1989), Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz, in NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol: 4, Ed. by Olivier J. Blanchard and Stanley Fischer, Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 121-170.
Ricardo, D. (1951[1820]), On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, Ed. by Piero Sraffo: Cambridge University Press.
Seater, J. J. (1993), “Ricardian Equivalance”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol: 31, pp.142-190.
Sutherland, A. (1997), “Fiscal Crisis and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effect of Fiscal Policy?”, Journal of Public Economics, Vol: 65, Issue: 2, pp. 147-162.
Şen, H. & Kaya, A. (2015), “Ekonomik Krizlerin Değişmeyen İmdatçısı: Maliye Politikası”, Sosyoekonomi, Sayı: 23, Ocak-Mart, ss. 55-86.
Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ, & Keskin, A. (2007), Bütçe Açıkları ve Açık Finansman Politikası: Teori ve Türkiye Uygulaması, Kasım 2007, Gözden Geçirilmiş ve Genişletilmiş 2. Baskı, Orion Yayınevi: Ankara.
Tapsoba, S. J. A. (2014), “Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India”, Economic Modelling, Vol: 43, pp. 225-237.
Turan, T. & Cangir, N. (2014), “Fiscal Adjustment and Stimuli: Turkish Case”, Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, Vol: 3, Issue: 1, pp. 71-91.
Turrini, A. (2013), “Fiscal Consolidation and Unemployment: Does EPL Matter?: A Loot at EU Countries”, Journal of Labor Policy, Vol: 2(8), pp. 1-18.
UNCTAD (2011), Post-Crisis Policy Challenges in the World Economy, in Trade and Development Report, A Report by the Secretariat of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, United Nations: New York and Geneva.
Von Hagen, J., Hallett, A. H. & Strauch, R. R. (2002), Budgetary Institutions for Sustainable Fiscal Policies, in: Marco Buti, Jürgen von Hagen and Martínez C. Mongay (eds.), The Behaviour of Fiscal Authorities: Stabilization, Growth and Institutions, Houdmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave, pp. 94-100.
Wagschal, U. & Wenzelburger, G. (2012), “When do Governments Consolidate? A Quantitative Comparative Analysis of 23 OECD Countries (1980-2005)”, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, Vol: 14(1), pp. 45-71.
Yay, T. (1996), Ricardocu Denklik Teoremi, İçinde Gökçe, D. (Ed.), Para & Finans Ansiklope-disi, Creative Yayıncılık: İstanbul, ss. 1342-1348.

Toplam 72 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm	Makaleler
Yazarlar	Hüseyin Şen Ayşe Kaya
Yayımlanma Tarihi	31 Ekim 2017
Gönderilme Tarihi	26 Haziran 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı	Yıl 2017

Kaynak Göster

APA	Şen, H., & Kaya, A. (2017). Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis. Sosyoekonomi, 25(34), 107-143. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410
AMA	Şen H, Kaya A. Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. Ekim 2017;25(34):107-143. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410
Chicago	Şen, Hüseyin, ve Ayşe Kaya. “Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis”. Sosyoekonomi 25, sy. 34 (Ekim 2017): 107-43. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410.
EndNote	Şen H, Kaya A (01 Ekim 2017) Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis. Sosyoekonomi 25 34 107–143.
IEEE	H. Şen ve A. Kaya, “Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 25, sy. 34, ss. 107–143, 2017, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410.
ISNAD	Şen, Hüseyin - Kaya, Ayşe. “Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis”. Sosyoekonomi 25/34 (Ekim 2017), 107-143. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410.
JAMA	Şen H, Kaya A. Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. 2017;25:107–143.
MLA	Şen, Hüseyin ve Ayşe Kaya. “Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 25, sy. 34, 2017, ss. 107-43, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.334410.
Vancouver	Şen H, Kaya A. Is Fiscal Consolidation a New Anchor or a Fiscal Trap for Growth and Employment? A Theoretical and Empirical Literature Based Analysis. Sosyoekonomi. 2017;25(34):107-43.

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