RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF VERTICAL MOVEMENTS AND MAJOR EARTHQUAKES IN THE CAUCASUS (1925–2023)

Year 2026, Issue: Advanced Online Publication, 3 - 15, 22.12.2025

Gurban Yetırmıshlı , Sabina Kazimova

Abstract

This study presents a retrospective analysis of vertical crustal movements in the Caucasus for the period 1925–2023, based on geodetic leveling, GNSS observations, and satellite interferometry
(InSAR). Spatial–temporal patterns of surface uplift and subsidence, reflecting the development of orogenic processes in the region, were identified through mapping. It is established that the central part of the Caucasus has been characterized by stable uplift (up to 10–12 mm/year) throughout the entire period, whereas peripheral zones demonstrate subsidence of varying intensity. A comparative analysis of seismicity revealed a correlation between anomalous vertical deformations and the foci of strong earthquakes, confirming their possible role as indicators of seismic hazard. Particular attention is given to the correlation of vertical tectonic movement phases with major seismic events of the 20th–21st centuries, including earthquakes in Armenia, Dagestan, Georgia, as well as adjacent areas of Turkey and Iran. The results emphasize the need for integrated monitoring using modern geodetic and remote sensing techniques to assess seismic risk in the Caucasus.

Keywords

Caucasus , vertical crustal movements , orogenic processes , geodetic leveling , GNSS , InSAR , seismicity , seismic hazard , geodynamics , tectonic deformation.

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