Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system

Neil Marshall; Gurban Yetırmıshlı; Sabina Kazimova; Ian Pirce; Richard Walker; Benedict Jonson; Ilyas Kazimov; Gregory Paul De Pascale; Ibrahim Guliyev

doi:10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15

Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system

Abstract

This study presents the results of an integrated geomorphological, structural, and paleoseismological investigation of the Shirvan strike-slip fault zone, located within the Kura–Araz Depression at the western margin of the South Caspian Basin (Azerbaijan). Using high-resolution Pléiades satellite stereo imagery, UAV aerial photography, field mapping, and digital elevation models, we identified evidence of active right-lateral strike-slip deformation, including offset river channels, terrace scarps, compression and extension zones, as well as pop-up and pull-apart structures. A close spatial relationship between the fault trace, anticlinal folding, and the linear distribution of mud volcanoes indicates structural control over their formation. For the first time, paleoseismological studies of the Shirvan Fault were carried out by excavating two trenches near Salyan. Stratigraphic analysis combined with infrared luminescence (IRSL) and radiocarbon dating allowed reconstruction of the paleoseismic history over the past ~3000 years. Four to six surface-rupturing events were identified with irregular recurrence intervals averaging 500–750 years, including a clustering of 2–3 events in the last ~500–600 years. The minimum geological slip rate along the fault was estimated at 3.9–4.8 mm/yr during the Holocene. Considering the fault zone length of ~150 km, inferred from geomorphology, seismicity, and mud volcano distribution, a full rupture could generate an earthquake of up to Mw ~7.5. However, the absence of large historical earthquakes and the nature of faulting within fluid-saturated sediments of the Kura–Araz Depression suggest that part of the deformation may occur aseismically or as triggered events. These results highlight the key role of the Shirvan strike-slip zone in the current tectonics of the South Caspian

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Seismology and Seismic Exploration, Geophysics (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Neil Marshall ^* This is me
United States

Gurban Yetırmıshlı
Azerbaijan

Sabina Kazimova
Azerbaijan

Ian Pirce This is me
United Kingdom

Richard Walker This is me
United Kingdom

Benedict Jonson This is me
United Kingdom

Ilyas Kazimov This is me
Azerbaijan

Gregory Paul De Pascale This is me
Iceland

Ibrahim Guliyev This is me
Azerbaijan

Publication Date

June 24, 2026

Submission Date

April 9, 2026

Acceptance Date

May 22, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 29 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA63FY22HX

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Marshall, N., Yetırmıshlı, G., Kazimova, S., Pirce, I., Walker, R., Jonson, B., Kazimov, I., Paul De Pascale, G., & Guliyev, I. (2026). Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan, 29(1), 15-27. https://doi.org/10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15

AMA

1.Marshall N, Yetırmıshlı G, Kazimova S, et al. Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan. 2026;29(1):15-27. doi:10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15

Chicago

Marshall, Neil, Gurban Yetırmıshlı, Sabina Kazimova, et al. 2026. “Paleoseismology of the Shirvan Strike-Slip Fault System”. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan 29 (1): 15-27. https://doi.org/10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15.

EndNote

Marshall N, Yetırmıshlı G, Kazimova S, Pirce I, Walker R, Jonson B, Kazimov I, Paul De Pascale G, Guliyev I (June 1, 2026) Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan 29 1 15–27.

IEEE

[1]N. Marshall et al., “Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system”, Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 15–27, June 2026, doi: 10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15.

ISNAD

Marshall, Neil - Yetırmıshlı, Gurban - Kazimova, Sabina - Pirce, Ian - Walker, Richard - Jonson, Benedict - Kazimov, Ilyas - Paul De Pascale, Gregory - Guliyev, Ibrahim. “Paleoseismology of the Shirvan Strike-Slip Fault System”. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan 29/1 (June 1, 2026): 15-27. https://doi.org/10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15.

JAMA

1.Marshall N, Yetırmıshlı G, Kazimova S, Pirce I, Walker R, Jonson B, Kazimov I, Paul De Pascale G, Guliyev I. Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan. 2026;29:15–27.

MLA

Marshall, Neil, et al. “Paleoseismology of the Shirvan Strike-Slip Fault System”. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan, vol. 29, no. 1, June 2026, pp. 15-27, doi:10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15.

Vancouver

1.Neil Marshall, Gurban Yetırmıshlı, Sabina Kazimova, Ian Pirce, Richard Walker, Benedict Jonson, Ilyas Kazimov, Gregory Paul De Pascale, Ibrahim Guliyev. Paleoseismology of the Shirvan strike-slip fault system. Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan. 2026 Jun. 1;29(1):15-27. doi:10.59849/2219-6641.2026.1.15