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DETERMINANTS OF TURKEY'S TEXTILES EXPORTATION: THE GRAVITATION MODEL APPROACH

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 3, 252 - 258, 01.12.2014

Osman Orkan Özer

Öz

In this study, factors that affect Turkey’s textile exportation have been analyzed. Data that include the years from2007 to 2012 in regard to142 countries to which Turkey exports textiles have been used. The factors that affect textile exportation have been examined through panel data and quantile regression analyses. The explanatory variables, GDP per capita, population, distance, real exchange rate, and the beliefs of countries with EU membership to which Turkey has exported textiles have been explored. In the results of the analysis, an exportation stimulant effect has been demonstrated between population growth and an increase in demand. An increase that occurs in Turkey’s real exchange rate is estimated to be a development that benefits its textile exportation. In addition, decreasing the tariffs that affect world trade negatively towards textile products customs tariffs and quotas decrease Turkey’s competitive power, contrary to expectations

Anahtar Kelimeler

Textile exportation Panel data Quantile regression Real exchange rate Gravity

Kaynakça

  • 1. TUIK (2014). http://www.tuik.gov.tr [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 2. Kanoğlu, N. & Ç. Emrah Ö. (2003). Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Tekstil-Hazır Giyim Sektörleri ve Türkiye’nin Rekabet Gücü, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı, Yayın No: 2668. http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ imalatsa/tekstil/kanoglun/rekabet.pdf.
  • 3. WTO (2014). http://stat.wto.org [Erişim: Mart, 2014]
  • 4. ITKIB (2014). http://www.itkib.org.tr/ [Erişim: Mart, 2014].
  • 5. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy. Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
  • 6. Poyhonen, P. (1963). “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90(1), pp: 93-99.
  • 7. Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, pp: 467-481.
  • 8. Oguledo, V. I. & Macphee, C. R. (1994). “Gravity Models: A Formulation and an Application to Discriminatory Trade Arrangements”. Applied Economics, 26, pp:107-120.
  • 9. Aitken, N. D. (1973). “The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis”. American Economic Review, 63, pp:881- 892.
  • 10. Porojan, A. (2001). “Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited”. Open Economics Review, 12, pp:265-280.
  • 11. Otsuki, T., Wilson, J. S. & Sewadeh, M. (2001). “Saving Two in a Billion: Quantifying the Trade Effect of European Food Safety Standards on African Exports”. Food Policy, 26, pp:495-514.
  • 12. Sanz, F. & Gil, J. M. (2001). “Assessment of the Agricultural Trade Impact of Spain’s Integration into the EU”. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 49, pp:53-69.
  • 13. Cho, G., Sheldon, I.M. & McCorriston, S. (2002). “Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, pp: 931-942.
  • 14. Furtan, W. H. & van Melle, B. M. (2004). “Canada’s Agricultural Trade in North America: Do National Borders Matter?” Review of Agricultural Economics, 26, pp:317-331.
  • 15. Atici C & Guloglu B. (2008). “Gravity Model of Turkey's Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Export to the EU”, Journal of International Food and
  • 16. Brockmeier, M. (2003). Ökonomische Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf den Agrar-und Ernaerungssektor. Agrarökonomische Studien, Wissenschaftsverlag Vauk Kiel Kg, ISBN 3-8175-0378-4.
  • 17. Ozer O.O. & Ozcelik A. (2009). “Tarım Ürünlerinin Gümrük Birliği Kapsamına Alınması Durumunda Pamuk ve Tekstil Sektörü Üzerinde Yaratacağı Etkiler: Bir Genel Denge Analizi”, Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, 15(2), pp:1-9.
  • 18. Güneş B. (2009). “Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Tarım Anlaşmasının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Hesaplanabilir Genel Denge Modeli Çalışması”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(1), pp:123-170.
  • 19. Worldbank (2014). http://databank.worldbank.org [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 20. TCMB (2014). http://www.tcmb.gov.tr [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 21. CEPII (2014). www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/gravity.htm [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 22. Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows, North Holland, Amsterdam.
  • 23. Anderson, J.E. (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, American Economic Review, 93 (1), pp:170-192.
  • 24. Arize, A.C. (1997), ” Conditional Exchange Rate Volatility and the Volume of foreign Trade: Evidence from Seven Industrialized Countries.” Southern Economic Journal, 64, pp:235-254.
  • 25. Hudson, D. & Keith C. (1999). “Harvest contract price Volatility for cotton”, The Joumal of Futures Markets, 19 (6), pp:717-733.
  • 26. Albeni, M., Demir, Y. & Demirgil H. (2006). “Döviz Kurlarındaki Değişim ve Kur Sistemlerinin İhracat Üzerindeki Etkisi – Türk İmalat Sanayiinde Bir Uygulama”, Review of Social, Economic & Business Studies, 7/8, pp:191-21.
  • 27. Sukar, A.H. & Hassan, S. (2001). “US Exports And Time-Varying Volatility of Real Exchange Rate.” Global Finance Journal, 12, pp:109- 119.
  • 28. Aristotelous,K. (2001). “Exchange-rate volatility, Exchange-rate regime,and trade volume: Evidence from the UK-US export function (1989-1999)”, Economic Letters 72, pp: 87-89.
  • 29. Gül, E. & Ekinci, A. (2006). “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1990 – 2006”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16, pp:165-190.
  • 30. Egger, P. (2002). “An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials”, World Economy, 25, pp:297-312.
  • 31. Yaffee R. (2003). “A Primer for Panel Data Analysis”, http://www.econ.pdx.edu/faculty/KPL/ec510/pda_yaffee.pdf
  • 32. Aguilar, C. A. (2006) “Trade Analysis of Specific Agri-Food Commodities Using a Gravity Model”, Michigan State University Department of Agricultural Economics, Master of Science Thesis, Michigan-USA.
  • 33. Greene, W.H. 2003. Econometric Analysis, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
  • 34. Swamy, P. & Arora, S. (1972). “The Exact Finite Sample Properties of the Estimators of Coefficients in the Error Components Regression Models”. Econometrica, 40, pp:261-275.
  • 35. Wallace, T. D. & Hussain, A. (1969). “The Use of Error Components Models in Combining Cross-Section and Time Series Data”, Econometrica, 37: 55-72.
  • 36. Wansbeek, T. J. & Kapteyn, A. (1982). “A Class of Decompositions of the Variance- Covariance Matrix of a Generalized Error Components Model”, Econometrica, 50, pp:713-724.
  • 37. Ozel H.A. & Sezgin F. (2012). “Ticari Serbestleşme-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Bootstrap Kantil Regresyon Yardımıyla Analizi”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 62(2), pp:283-301.
  • 38. Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile Regression, Econometric Society Monographs, Cambridge University Press.
  • 39. Hao, L. & Naiman, D.Q. (2007) Quantile Regression, Quantitative applications in the social sciences, Sage Publications, California, 126s.
  • 40. Judge George G., W. E. Griffiths, R. C. Hill, H. Lutkepohl, & T. C. Lee (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • 41. Efron, B. & Tibshirani R. (1993). An introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman & Hall, London, U.K., 436 pp.
  • 40. Judge George G., W. E. Griffiths, R. C. Hill, H. Lutkepohl, & T. C. Lee (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • 42. Kocherginsky, M., Xuming H. & Yunming, M. (2005). “Practical Confidence Intervals for Regression Quantiles”, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 14(1), pp:41-55
  • 43. He, Xuming & Feifang Hu. (2002). "Markov Chain Marginal Bootstrap," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97(459), pp:783-795.
  • 44. Knuth, D. E. (1969). “Seminumerical Algorithms”, The Art of Computer Programming, 2(1) Boston: Addison Wesley.
  • 45. Hatirli, S.A., Oguzturk B.S., Onder, K., Demirel O. 2012. Demand Function of Textile and Apparel Export, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 185-198.

TÜRKİYE'NİN TEKSTİL ÜRÜNLERİ İHRACATININ BELİRLİYİCİLERİ: ÇEKİM MODELİ YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 3, 252 - 258, 01.12.2014

Osman Orkan Özer

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin Tekstil ihracatını etkileyen faktörler analiz edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin tekstil ürünleri ihracatını gerçekleştirdiği 142 ülkeye ilişkin 2007-2012 yıllarını kapsayan veriler kullanılmış. Tekstil ihracatını etkileyen faktörler, panel veri ve kantil regresyon analizleri yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Açıklayıcı değişkenler, kişi başına düşen GSYİH, nüfus, mesafe, reel döviz kuru, AB üyeliği ile ihracat yapılan ülkelerin inançları kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, nüfus büyüklüğü ile talep artışı arasında, ihracatı uyarıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu analiz sonucunda elde edilmiştir. Türkiye’nin reel döviz kurunda gerçekleşecek bir artışın, tekstil ihracatı lehine gelişeceği tahmin edilmektedir. Ayrıca, Tekstil ürünleri gümrük tarifeleri ile kotalara yönelik dünya ticaretini olumsuz yönde etkileyen tarifelerin azaltılması beklenenin aksine Türkiye’nin rekabet gücünü azaltmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tekstil İhracatı Panel Veri Kantil Regresyon Reel Döviz Kuru Gravitiy

Kaynakça

  • 1. TUIK (2014). http://www.tuik.gov.tr [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 2. Kanoğlu, N. & Ç. Emrah Ö. (2003). Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Tekstil-Hazır Giyim Sektörleri ve Türkiye’nin Rekabet Gücü, Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı, Yayın No: 2668. http://ekutup.dpt.gov.tr/ imalatsa/tekstil/kanoglun/rekabet.pdf.
  • 3. WTO (2014). http://stat.wto.org [Erişim: Mart, 2014]
  • 4. ITKIB (2014). http://www.itkib.org.tr/ [Erişim: Mart, 2014].
  • 5. Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy. Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.
  • 6. Poyhonen, P. (1963). “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90(1), pp: 93-99.
  • 7. Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, pp: 467-481.
  • 8. Oguledo, V. I. & Macphee, C. R. (1994). “Gravity Models: A Formulation and an Application to Discriminatory Trade Arrangements”. Applied Economics, 26, pp:107-120.
  • 9. Aitken, N. D. (1973). “The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis”. American Economic Review, 63, pp:881- 892.
  • 10. Porojan, A. (2001). “Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited”. Open Economics Review, 12, pp:265-280.
  • 11. Otsuki, T., Wilson, J. S. & Sewadeh, M. (2001). “Saving Two in a Billion: Quantifying the Trade Effect of European Food Safety Standards on African Exports”. Food Policy, 26, pp:495-514.
  • 12. Sanz, F. & Gil, J. M. (2001). “Assessment of the Agricultural Trade Impact of Spain’s Integration into the EU”. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 49, pp:53-69.
  • 13. Cho, G., Sheldon, I.M. & McCorriston, S. (2002). “Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, pp: 931-942.
  • 14. Furtan, W. H. & van Melle, B. M. (2004). “Canada’s Agricultural Trade in North America: Do National Borders Matter?” Review of Agricultural Economics, 26, pp:317-331.
  • 15. Atici C & Guloglu B. (2008). “Gravity Model of Turkey's Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Export to the EU”, Journal of International Food and
  • 16. Brockmeier, M. (2003). Ökonomische Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf den Agrar-und Ernaerungssektor. Agrarökonomische Studien, Wissenschaftsverlag Vauk Kiel Kg, ISBN 3-8175-0378-4.
  • 17. Ozer O.O. & Ozcelik A. (2009). “Tarım Ürünlerinin Gümrük Birliği Kapsamına Alınması Durumunda Pamuk ve Tekstil Sektörü Üzerinde Yaratacağı Etkiler: Bir Genel Denge Analizi”, Turkish Journal of Agricultural Economics, 15(2), pp:1-9.
  • 18. Güneş B. (2009). “Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Tarım Anlaşmasının Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Hesaplanabilir Genel Denge Modeli Çalışması”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(1), pp:123-170.
  • 19. Worldbank (2014). http://databank.worldbank.org [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 20. TCMB (2014). http://www.tcmb.gov.tr [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 21. CEPII (2014). www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/gravity.htm [Erişim: Ocak, 2014]
  • 22. Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows, North Holland, Amsterdam.
  • 23. Anderson, J.E. (1979). “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, American Economic Review, 93 (1), pp:170-192.
  • 24. Arize, A.C. (1997), ” Conditional Exchange Rate Volatility and the Volume of foreign Trade: Evidence from Seven Industrialized Countries.” Southern Economic Journal, 64, pp:235-254.
  • 25. Hudson, D. & Keith C. (1999). “Harvest contract price Volatility for cotton”, The Joumal of Futures Markets, 19 (6), pp:717-733.
  • 26. Albeni, M., Demir, Y. & Demirgil H. (2006). “Döviz Kurlarındaki Değişim ve Kur Sistemlerinin İhracat Üzerindeki Etkisi – Türk İmalat Sanayiinde Bir Uygulama”, Review of Social, Economic & Business Studies, 7/8, pp:191-21.
  • 27. Sukar, A.H. & Hassan, S. (2001). “US Exports And Time-Varying Volatility of Real Exchange Rate.” Global Finance Journal, 12, pp:109- 119.
  • 28. Aristotelous,K. (2001). “Exchange-rate volatility, Exchange-rate regime,and trade volume: Evidence from the UK-US export function (1989-1999)”, Economic Letters 72, pp: 87-89.
  • 29. Gül, E. & Ekinci, A. (2006). “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1990 – 2006”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16, pp:165-190.
  • 30. Egger, P. (2002). “An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials”, World Economy, 25, pp:297-312.
  • 31. Yaffee R. (2003). “A Primer for Panel Data Analysis”, http://www.econ.pdx.edu/faculty/KPL/ec510/pda_yaffee.pdf
  • 32. Aguilar, C. A. (2006) “Trade Analysis of Specific Agri-Food Commodities Using a Gravity Model”, Michigan State University Department of Agricultural Economics, Master of Science Thesis, Michigan-USA.
  • 33. Greene, W.H. 2003. Econometric Analysis, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
  • 34. Swamy, P. & Arora, S. (1972). “The Exact Finite Sample Properties of the Estimators of Coefficients in the Error Components Regression Models”. Econometrica, 40, pp:261-275.
  • 35. Wallace, T. D. & Hussain, A. (1969). “The Use of Error Components Models in Combining Cross-Section and Time Series Data”, Econometrica, 37: 55-72.
  • 36. Wansbeek, T. J. & Kapteyn, A. (1982). “A Class of Decompositions of the Variance- Covariance Matrix of a Generalized Error Components Model”, Econometrica, 50, pp:713-724.
  • 37. Ozel H.A. & Sezgin F. (2012). “Ticari Serbestleşme-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Bootstrap Kantil Regresyon Yardımıyla Analizi”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 62(2), pp:283-301.
  • 38. Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile Regression, Econometric Society Monographs, Cambridge University Press.
  • 39. Hao, L. & Naiman, D.Q. (2007) Quantile Regression, Quantitative applications in the social sciences, Sage Publications, California, 126s.
  • 40. Judge George G., W. E. Griffiths, R. C. Hill, H. Lutkepohl, & T. C. Lee (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • 41. Efron, B. & Tibshirani R. (1993). An introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman & Hall, London, U.K., 436 pp.
  • 40. Judge George G., W. E. Griffiths, R. C. Hill, H. Lutkepohl, & T. C. Lee (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • 42. Kocherginsky, M., Xuming H. & Yunming, M. (2005). “Practical Confidence Intervals for Regression Quantiles”, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 14(1), pp:41-55
  • 43. He, Xuming & Feifang Hu. (2002). "Markov Chain Marginal Bootstrap," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97(459), pp:783-795.
  • 44. Knuth, D. E. (1969). “Seminumerical Algorithms”, The Art of Computer Programming, 2(1) Boston: Addison Wesley.
  • 45. Hatirli, S.A., Oguzturk B.S., Onder, K., Demirel O. 2012. Demand Function of Textile and Apparel Export, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 26(3-4), 185-198.
Toplam 46 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA88YR48AS
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Osman Orkan Özer Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Aralık 2014
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Aralık 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Orkan Özer, O. (2014). DETERMINANTS OF TURKEY’S TEXTILES EXPORTATION: THE GRAVITATION MODEL APPROACH. Textile and Apparel, 24(3), 252-258.

No part of this journal may be reproduced, stored, transmitted or disseminated in any forms or by any means without prior written permission of the Editorial Board. The views and opinions expressed here in the articles are those of the authors and are not the views of Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon and Textile and Apparel Research-Application Center.