THE PREDICTION OF TURKEY’S DENIM TROUSERS EXPORT TO GERMANY WITH ANN MODELS

Year 2011, Volume: 21 Issue: 4, 313 - 322, 30.12.2011

Ahmet Özbek Mehmet Akalın

Abstract

In this study, Turkey’s denim trousers export to Germany was predicted using ANN models. ANN models were composed of the

import of denim trousers, the minimum wage, the price of cotton, electricity, and water, the value of TRY against USD, the credit usage of

ready-made clothing enterprises, export credits, the real effective exchange rate, brands of denim trousers, the denim trouser Balasa Index,

Germany Denim Trousers import, Germany's Quota Application to Turkey, Income Per Capita in Germany, Population in Germany,

Unemployment in Germany and Inflation in Germany. It is observed that the best prediction is provided by ELMAN.

Keywords

Artificial neural networks, Prediction, Export

YSA MODELLERİYLE TÜRKİYE’NİN ALMANYA’YA DENİM PANTOLON İHRACATININ ÖNGÖRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada; Türkiye’nin Almanya’ya denim pantolon ihracatı YSA modelleriyle öngörüldü. YSA modelleri; denim pantolon ithalatı,

asgari ücret, pamuk, elektirik ve su fiyatı, TL’nin ABD Doları karşısındaki değeri, hazır giyim sektöründeki kredi kullanımı, ihracat

kredileri, reel efektif döviz kuru, denim pantolon markaları, denim pantolon Balasa İndeksi, Almanya’nın denim pantolon ithalatı,

Almanya’nın Türkiye’ye kota uygulaması, Almanya’da kişi başına düşen gelir, Almanya nüfusu, Almanya’daki işsizlik ve enflasyondan

oluştu. En iyi öngörü performansını ELMAN ağı gerçekleştirmiştir.

Keywords

Yapay sinir ağları, Öngörü, İhracat, Denim pantolon

References

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