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THE PREDICTION OF TURKEY’S DENIM TROUSERS EXPORT TO GERMANY WITH ANN MODELS

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4, 313 - 322, 30.12.2011

Öz

In this study, Turkey’s denim trousers export to Germany was predicted using ANN models. ANN models were composed of the
import of denim trousers, the minimum wage, the price of cotton, electricity, and water, the value of TRY against USD, the credit usage of
ready-made clothing enterprises, export credits, the real effective exchange rate, brands of denim trousers, the denim trouser Balasa Index,
Germany Denim Trousers import, Germany's Quota Application to Turkey, Income Per Capita in Germany, Population in Germany,
Unemployment in Germany and Inflation in Germany. It is observed that the best prediction is provided by ELMAN.

Kaynakça

  • 1. Koutroumanidis, T., Ioannou, K.; Arabatzis, G., 2009, “Predicting Fuelwood Prices in Greece with the Use of ARIMA models, Artificial Neural Networks and Hybrid ARIMA ANN Model” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, issue 9, pg. 3627-3634 2. Geem, Z. W.; Roper, W.E. 2009, “Energy Demand Estimation of South Korea using artificial Neural Network” Energy Policy, vol. 37, issue 10, pg. 4049- 4054 3. Karaali, F. Ç. Ulengin, F., 2008, “Predicting Unemployment Rates With The Use Of Cognitive Mapping Methodology And Artificial Neural Networks” İTÜ Dergisi / D Engineering, Vol.7, Num:3, Page. 15-26. 4. C. Co, H. & Boosarawongse, R., 2007, “Forecasting Thailand’s Rice Export: Statistical Techniques vs. Artificial Neural Networks” Computers&Industrial Engineering, Vol. 53, Issue 4, pag. 610-627 5. Usta, A.S., 2007, “Forecasting Model And Analyse Of Producers Price Index (PPI) In Turkey By Using Artificial Neural Network Application” MSc. Thesis, Yıldız Technical University, Turkey. 6. Zou, H.F.& Xia, G.P.& Yang, F.T.& Wang, H.Y., 2007, “An Investigation and Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Time Series Models for Chinese Food Grain Price Forecasting” Neurocomputing, Vol.70, Issue 16-17 7. Ertuğrul I.; Tokat S.; Aytac E.; Tus A., 2005, “A Case Study For Forecasting Denizli City Manufacturing Industry Export Data Using Artifıcial Neural Networks” Proceedings of 4th International Symposium on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems, Sakarya University, Turkey 8. Bayır, F., 2006, “Artificial Neural Networks And Application On Forecasting” MSc. Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey. 9. Glenn, A. R., 2006, “Finished Good Sourcing Decisions in The US Apparel Industry After Implementation Of The Agreement on Textiles and Clothing” Degree Doctor of Philosophy, The Ohio State University, USA, 10. Kabal, A.K., 2007, “The Economic Policies Practised In Between 1980-2005 And Their Effects On Foreign Trade” MSc. Thesis, Ataturk University, Turkey. 11. Ongüt, Ç. E., 2007, “Türk Tekstil ve Hazır Giyim Sanayinin Değişen Dünya Rekabet Şartlarına Uyumu” Speciallization Thesis, T.R. Prime Ministry State Planning Organization, Turkey. 12. Keleş, İ., 2000, “The Characteristics Of Textile And Clothes Sectors And The Position And Importance Of Them In Turkish Export” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey. 13. Çolak, G., 2007, “Export Incentives and Turk Eximbank” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey. 14. Varoçlu, Ö., 2005, “Turk Eximbank And The Role Of Suppoting Export” MSc. Thesis, Kocaeli University, Turkey. 15. Topcul, M., 2004, “Türk Eximbank Kredi Programları, İhracat Kredi Sigortası ve Garantisi” MSc. Thesis, Marmara University, Turkey. 16. Çifci, S., 2006, “Brand And Brand Loyalty: An Investigation About University Students'jean Choices And Brand Loyalty” MSc. Thesis, Abant İzzet Baysal University, Turkey 17. Görgülü, A., 2006, “Branding In Textile And Apparel Industry In Turkey And Its Influence On Export” MSc. Thesis, Uludag University, Turkey. 18. Çıplak, U., 2007, “Competitiveness Indicators And An Evaluation With Respect To Turkish Manufacturing Industry Goods Exports” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey. 19. Zengin, A., 2001, “Real Exchange Rate Movements And Foreign Trade Prices (Empirical Findings On Turkish Economy)” Cumhuriyet University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science Review, Vol. 2, Number. 2 Pg. 27 20. Kök, R., Çoban, O., 2005, “The Turkish Textile Industry and its Competitiveness: A Comparative Analysis with the EU Countries during the period 1989- 2001” İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Vol. 20, Issue: 228, Page. 68-81. 21. Aynagöz, Ç. Ö., 2005, “Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler ve Rekabet Gücü: Türkiye Tekstil ve Hazır Giyim Endüstrisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama” Ege Academic Review, Vol. 5, Number 1-2. 22. Li, Y.; Shen Y.; Yao, L.; Newton, E., 2003, “The World Trade Organization and International Denim Trading” The Textile Institute, Woodhead Publishing Limited Cambridge, England. 23. Yıldız, N., 2007, “Global advertisement strategies in the globalization” MSc. Thesis, Marmara University, Turkey. 24. Yıldırım, M., 2000, “The Effect of custom duties and foreign exchange policies on the terms of trade (Turkish case: 1982-1996 period)” Doctor of Philosophy, Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey. 25. Türkkan, D., 2006, “The Role And Financial Possibilities Of Textile Sector In Turkish External Trade” Marmara University, MSc. Thesis, Turkey. 26. Tewari, M., 2005, “The Role of Price and Cost Competitiveness in Apparel Exports, Post-MFA: A Review” Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Working Paper No. 173, New Delhi. 27. Horoz, Y., 2006, “Export tax incentives and application in Turkey” MSc. Thesis, Uludag University, Turkey. 28. Demuth H.; Mark B., 2002, “Neural Network Toolbox User’s Guide” The MathWorks,Inc. MA. 29. Hagan T. M; Demuth H.B; Beale M., 1996, “Neural Network Design” PWS Publishing Company, pp. 2-44. 30. Elman J. L., 1990, “Finding Structure in Time” Cognitive Science, 14, pp. 179-221. 31. Özbek, A., 2009,“Türk Hazır Giyim Sanayinin Örnek Ürün Bazında (Denim Pantolon) Gelecekteki İhracat Performansının İncelenmesi” Degree Doctor of Philosophy, Marmara University, Turkey.

YSA MODELLERİYLE TÜRKİYE’NİN ALMANYA’YA DENİM PANTOLON İHRACATININ ÖNGÖRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4, 313 - 322, 30.12.2011

Öz

Bu çalışmada; Türkiye’nin Almanya’ya denim pantolon ihracatı YSA modelleriyle öngörüldü. YSA modelleri; denim pantolon ithalatı,
asgari ücret, pamuk, elektirik ve su fiyatı, TL’nin ABD Doları karşısındaki değeri, hazır giyim sektöründeki kredi kullanımı, ihracat
kredileri, reel efektif döviz kuru, denim pantolon markaları, denim pantolon Balasa İndeksi, Almanya’nın denim pantolon ithalatı,
Almanya’nın Türkiye’ye kota uygulaması, Almanya’da kişi başına düşen gelir, Almanya nüfusu, Almanya’daki işsizlik ve enflasyondan
oluştu. En iyi öngörü performansını ELMAN ağı gerçekleştirmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • 1. Koutroumanidis, T., Ioannou, K.; Arabatzis, G., 2009, “Predicting Fuelwood Prices in Greece with the Use of ARIMA models, Artificial Neural Networks and Hybrid ARIMA ANN Model” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, issue 9, pg. 3627-3634 2. Geem, Z. W.; Roper, W.E. 2009, “Energy Demand Estimation of South Korea using artificial Neural Network” Energy Policy, vol. 37, issue 10, pg. 4049- 4054 3. Karaali, F. Ç. Ulengin, F., 2008, “Predicting Unemployment Rates With The Use Of Cognitive Mapping Methodology And Artificial Neural Networks” İTÜ Dergisi / D Engineering, Vol.7, Num:3, Page. 15-26. 4. C. Co, H. & Boosarawongse, R., 2007, “Forecasting Thailand’s Rice Export: Statistical Techniques vs. Artificial Neural Networks” Computers&Industrial Engineering, Vol. 53, Issue 4, pag. 610-627 5. Usta, A.S., 2007, “Forecasting Model And Analyse Of Producers Price Index (PPI) In Turkey By Using Artificial Neural Network Application” MSc. Thesis, Yıldız Technical University, Turkey. 6. Zou, H.F.& Xia, G.P.& Yang, F.T.& Wang, H.Y., 2007, “An Investigation and Comparison of Artificial Neural Network and Time Series Models for Chinese Food Grain Price Forecasting” Neurocomputing, Vol.70, Issue 16-17 7. Ertuğrul I.; Tokat S.; Aytac E.; Tus A., 2005, “A Case Study For Forecasting Denizli City Manufacturing Industry Export Data Using Artifıcial Neural Networks” Proceedings of 4th International Symposium on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems, Sakarya University, Turkey 8. Bayır, F., 2006, “Artificial Neural Networks And Application On Forecasting” MSc. Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey. 9. Glenn, A. R., 2006, “Finished Good Sourcing Decisions in The US Apparel Industry After Implementation Of The Agreement on Textiles and Clothing” Degree Doctor of Philosophy, The Ohio State University, USA, 10. Kabal, A.K., 2007, “The Economic Policies Practised In Between 1980-2005 And Their Effects On Foreign Trade” MSc. Thesis, Ataturk University, Turkey. 11. Ongüt, Ç. E., 2007, “Türk Tekstil ve Hazır Giyim Sanayinin Değişen Dünya Rekabet Şartlarına Uyumu” Speciallization Thesis, T.R. Prime Ministry State Planning Organization, Turkey. 12. Keleş, İ., 2000, “The Characteristics Of Textile And Clothes Sectors And The Position And Importance Of Them In Turkish Export” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey. 13. Çolak, G., 2007, “Export Incentives and Turk Eximbank” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey. 14. Varoçlu, Ö., 2005, “Turk Eximbank And The Role Of Suppoting Export” MSc. Thesis, Kocaeli University, Turkey. 15. Topcul, M., 2004, “Türk Eximbank Kredi Programları, İhracat Kredi Sigortası ve Garantisi” MSc. Thesis, Marmara University, Turkey. 16. Çifci, S., 2006, “Brand And Brand Loyalty: An Investigation About University Students'jean Choices And Brand Loyalty” MSc. Thesis, Abant İzzet Baysal University, Turkey 17. Görgülü, A., 2006, “Branding In Textile And Apparel Industry In Turkey And Its Influence On Export” MSc. Thesis, Uludag University, Turkey. 18. Çıplak, U., 2007, “Competitiveness Indicators And An Evaluation With Respect To Turkish Manufacturing Industry Goods Exports” MSc. Thesis, Gazi University, Turkey. 19. Zengin, A., 2001, “Real Exchange Rate Movements And Foreign Trade Prices (Empirical Findings On Turkish Economy)” Cumhuriyet University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science Review, Vol. 2, Number. 2 Pg. 27 20. Kök, R., Çoban, O., 2005, “The Turkish Textile Industry and its Competitiveness: A Comparative Analysis with the EU Countries during the period 1989- 2001” İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Vol. 20, Issue: 228, Page. 68-81. 21. Aynagöz, Ç. Ö., 2005, “Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler ve Rekabet Gücü: Türkiye Tekstil ve Hazır Giyim Endüstrisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama” Ege Academic Review, Vol. 5, Number 1-2. 22. Li, Y.; Shen Y.; Yao, L.; Newton, E., 2003, “The World Trade Organization and International Denim Trading” The Textile Institute, Woodhead Publishing Limited Cambridge, England. 23. Yıldız, N., 2007, “Global advertisement strategies in the globalization” MSc. Thesis, Marmara University, Turkey. 24. Yıldırım, M., 2000, “The Effect of custom duties and foreign exchange policies on the terms of trade (Turkish case: 1982-1996 period)” Doctor of Philosophy, Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey. 25. Türkkan, D., 2006, “The Role And Financial Possibilities Of Textile Sector In Turkish External Trade” Marmara University, MSc. Thesis, Turkey. 26. Tewari, M., 2005, “The Role of Price and Cost Competitiveness in Apparel Exports, Post-MFA: A Review” Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, Working Paper No. 173, New Delhi. 27. Horoz, Y., 2006, “Export tax incentives and application in Turkey” MSc. Thesis, Uludag University, Turkey. 28. Demuth H.; Mark B., 2002, “Neural Network Toolbox User’s Guide” The MathWorks,Inc. MA. 29. Hagan T. M; Demuth H.B; Beale M., 1996, “Neural Network Design” PWS Publishing Company, pp. 2-44. 30. Elman J. L., 1990, “Finding Structure in Time” Cognitive Science, 14, pp. 179-221. 31. Özbek, A., 2009,“Türk Hazır Giyim Sanayinin Örnek Ürün Bazında (Denim Pantolon) Gelecekteki İhracat Performansının İncelenmesi” Degree Doctor of Philosophy, Marmara University, Turkey.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ahmet Özbek Bu kişi benim

Mehmet Akalın Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2011
Gönderilme Tarihi 21 Ekim 2010
Kabul Tarihi 20 Eylül 2011
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2011 Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Özbek, A., & Akalın, M. (2011). THE PREDICTION OF TURKEY’S DENIM TROUSERS EXPORT TO GERMANY WITH ANN MODELS. Textile and Apparel, 21(4), 313-322.

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