A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms

Titus Ajewole; Abdulsemiu Olawuyi; Mutiu Kolawole Agboola; Opeyemi Onarinde

doi:10.5152/tepes.2021.21043

A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms

Abstract

In this study, the efficiencies of three different neural network load forecasting algorithms are compared to determine the best performance. The algo- rithms––Levenberg–Marquardt, gradient descent, and gradient descent with momentum and adaptive learning rate backpropagation are used to train a neural network (NN) model for energy demand prediction on a power system. Prior loads, weather parameters (temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), and customer population of the supplied region are employed as training inputs. To ascertain the accuracy of the predictions, mean absolute error and mean square error are used as evaluation indices, and the algorithm with the least index values is deployed on a transmission substation. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was found to be the most efficient candidate, and this algorithm is therefore recommended for adequate and proper system management, planning, and expansion, to enhance the efficiency, effectiveness, and accessibility of power supply.

Keywords

Thanks

The authors thank the Regional Control Center, Osogbo, for providing the necessary data on the electrical load utilization of the area from 2011 to 2015. The authors also appreciate the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), for providing the weather parameters needed for the study.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Electrical Energy Transmission, Networks and Systems

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Titus Ajewole
Nigeria

Abdulsemiu Olawuyi ^*
Nigeria

Mutiu Kolawole Agboola This is me
Nigeria

Opeyemi Onarinde This is me
Nigeria

Publication Date

October 31, 2021

Submission Date

August 18, 2021

Acceptance Date

September 20, 2021

Published in Issue

Year 2021 Volume: 1 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2021.21043

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA99CB78MP

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Ajewole, T., Olawuyi, A., Agboola, M. K., & Onarinde, O. (2021). A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 1(2), 99-107. https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2021.21043

AMA

1.Ajewole T, Olawuyi A, Agboola MK, Onarinde O. A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms. TEPES. 2021;1(2):99-107. doi:10.5152/tepes.2021.21043

Chicago

Ajewole, Titus, Abdulsemiu Olawuyi, Mutiu Kolawole Agboola, and Opeyemi Onarinde. 2021. “A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms”. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 1 (2): 99-107. https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2021.21043.

EndNote

Ajewole T, Olawuyi A, Agboola MK, Onarinde O (October 1, 2021) A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 1 2 99–107.

IEEE

[1]T. Ajewole, A. Olawuyi, M. K. Agboola, and O. Onarinde, “A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms”, TEPES, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 99–107, Oct. 2021, doi: 10.5152/tepes.2021.21043.

ISNAD

Ajewole, Titus - Olawuyi, Abdulsemiu - Agboola, Mutiu Kolawole - Onarinde, Opeyemi. “A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms”. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 1/2 (October 1, 2021): 99-107. https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2021.21043.

JAMA

1.Ajewole T, Olawuyi A, Agboola MK, Onarinde O. A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms. TEPES. 2021;1:99–107.

MLA

Ajewole, Titus, et al. “A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms”. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 1, no. 2, Oct. 2021, pp. 99-107, doi:10.5152/tepes.2021.21043.

Vancouver

1.Titus Ajewole, Abdulsemiu Olawuyi, Mutiu Kolawole Agboola, Opeyemi Onarinde. A Comparative Study on the Performances of Power Systems Load Forecasting Algorithms. TEPES. 2021 Oct. 1;1(2):99-107. doi:10.5152/tepes.2021.21043