EFFECT OF TIME HORIZON ON WIND SPEED PREDICTION WITH ANN

Yıl 2018, Special Issue 7: International Conference on Energy and Thermal Engineering Istanbul 2017 (ICTE 2017), 1770 - 1779, 20.12.2017

Şaban Pusat

https://doi.org/10.18186/journal-of-thermal-engineering.372218

Cited By: 1

Öz

Proper utilization of
renewable energy sources in electricity production is inevitable due to the
environmental concerns and global warming fight. Therefore, predictability of
renewable electricity is a very significant issue for a long time. Main aim of
this study, different from the literature, is to investigate the change of wind
speed prediction errors for different time horizons. Different prediction time
horizons (10, 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes) were used, and the results were
compared through the error measures and the regression values. The mean squared
errors and the regression values vary between 0.819 and 5.570, and between
77.8% and 97.1%, respectively. The prediction error changes almost
logarithmically, and the rate of change decreases with the increasing time
horizon. A new analysis approach was proposed to see the change of the
prediction error with time horizon. The equation, y = 1.5413ln(x) - 2.7428, representing the change of
the mean squared error with time horizon was obtained.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Wind Energy, Wind Speed Prediction, Artificial Neural Network, Time Horizon

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