tjce

Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering

2822-6836

TMMOB İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası

10.18400/tjce.1776225

Civil Engineering (Other)

İnşaat Mühendisliği (Diğer)

Occupational Accidents in the Turkish Construction Sector: Descriptive Statistics and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models

Türk İnşaat Sektöründe İş Kazaları: Tanımlayıcı İstatistikler ve Olasılıksal Risk Değerlendirme Modelleri

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0135-6143

Kahraman

Muhammed Furkan

KIRIKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ, FEN BİLİMLERİ ENSTİTÜSÜ, ENDÜSTRİ MÜHENDİSLİĞİ (DR)

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3816-7530

Bulut

Şükrü

KIRIKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0781-4405

Yörübulut

Serap

KIRIKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6686-9241

Türker

Ahmet Kürşad

KIRIKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ

Advanced Online Publication 09 01 2025 04 03 2026

1990

Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering

The construction industry’s occupational health and safety (OHS) policies require re-evaluation due to inherent risks. This study statistically analyzes 434,314 occupational accidents reported to Social Security Institute (SSI) in Turkey (2012-2021), employing a Probit regression model to test fatality probabilities. Findings demonstrate that OHS training marginally reduces fatality probability by 1.28%, while blue-collar occupations carry higher mathematical weight in operational risk than advanced age. These probabilistic coefficients were converted into Process Safety Risk Scores (PRS) for site optimization and actuarial premium adjustment factors for risk-based insurance. Consequently, this study shifts construction safety from administrative processes toward data-driven, concrete risk management and engineering models

En riskli sektörlerden biri olan inşaat sektöründe iş sağlığı ve güvenliği (İSG) politikalarının etkinliği yeniden değerlendirilmelidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye inşaat sektöründe 2012-2021 arası Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumuna (SGK) bildirilen 434.314 iş kazası istatistiksel olarak incelenerek, kazaların ölümle sonuçlanma olasılığı Probit regresyon modeliyle test edilmiştir. Bulgular, İSG eğitiminin ölüm olasılığını marjinal olarak %1,28 azalttığını; mavi yakalı meslek gruplarının operasyonel risk önceliğinde ileri yaş faktöründen daha yüksek matematiksel ağırlığa sahip olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Elde edilen olasılıksal katsayılar; şantiye optimizasyonu için Proses Güvenlik Risk Skoruna (PRS) ve risk-tabanlı sigortacılık için aktüeryal prim düzeltme faktörüne dönüştürülmüştür. Çalışma, inşaat güvenliğini idari bir süreçten çıkarıp veriye dayalı, somut bir risk yönetimi ve mühendislik modeline taşımaktadır.

İnşaat sektörü iş kazaları çapraz tablolama analizi probit regresyon risk tabanlı sigorta modeli tasarım için güvenlik

Construction industry occupational accidents cross-tabulation analysis probit regression risk-based workers' compensation design for safety

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