FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY

Abstract

The aim of this study is to enhance a time series model that estimates daily electricity energy demand for Turkey. In literature, annual and monthly electricity demand has been forecasted to take long term decision mostly, this study distinctively makes daily predictions to help daily operations for Turkish electricity market. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, an ARIMA model is constructed to forecast daily electricity demand for Turkey.The best model is found to be SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,0,1)7 to estimate the consumption for a day later. According to this time series model, Turkey daily electricity demand in January and February of 2018 is forecasted about 1.45% deviation. As the data is limited, only the first two month of 2018 can be compared to the actual daily consumption. This study will be carried on for the purpose of validating the model for other months of 2018.

Keywords

• ARIMA,Electricity demand,Forecast

References

1. Akan, Yusuf and Soner Tak. 2003. "Türkiye Elektrik Enerjisi Ekonometrik Talep Analizi." Ataturk University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences: 21-41.[Online] Available:http://e-dergi.atauni.edu.tr/atauniiibd/article/view/1025003570 (20 February 2016).
2. Akay, Diyar and Mehmet Atak. 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey." Energy 32: 1670-1675. [Online] Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222743939_Grey_prediction_with_rolling_mechanism_for_electricity_demand_forecasting_of_Turkey (20 February 2016).
3. Almeshaie, Eisa and Hassan Soltan. 2011. "A methodology for Electric Power Load Forecasting." Alexandria Engineering Journal 50: 137-144. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016811000330
4. Altınay, Galip. 2010. "Aylık Elektrik Talebinin Mevsimsel Model ile Orta Dönem Öngörüsü." Enerji, Piyasa ve Düzenleme: 1-23. [Online] Avaliable: http://openaccess.dogus.edu.tr/bitstream/handle/11376/2643/galtinay_2010.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y (February 27, 2018).
5. Başoğlu, Benan and Bulut Mehmet. 2017. “Kısa dönem elektrik talep tahminleri için yapay sinir ağları ve uzman sistemler tabanlı hibrit system geliştirilmesi.” Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University 32(2): 576-578. [Online] Avaliable: http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/316487 (February 27,2018).
6. Demirel, Özkan, Adnan Kakilli and Mehmet Tektaş. 2010. "ANFIS ve ARMA Modelleri ile Elektrik Enerjisi Yük Tahmini." Gazi University Journal of Engineering and Architecture: 601-610. [Online] Available: http://www.mmfdergi.gazi.edu.tr/article/view/1061000470 (February 27, 2018).
7. Dilaver, Zafer and Lester C. Hunt.C. 2011a. "Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis." Energy Economics 33: 426-436. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988310001702
8. Dilaver, Zafer and Lester C. Hunt. 2011b. "Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020." Energy 36: 6686-6696. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211004919

9. Erdoğdu, Erkan. 2007. "Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey." Energy Policy 35: 1129-1146. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142150600098X
10. Feinberg, Eugene A. and Dora Genethliou. 2005. Load Forecasting. Applied Mathematics Restructed Electric Power Systems. Springer US. p. 269-285.
11. Gültekin, Ömer. 2009. "Bursa İli Orta Dönem Elektrik Talep Tahmini." Master's Thesis, Dumlupınar University. [Online] Available: sujest.selcuk.edu.tr/sumbtd/article/download/315/486(February 27, 2018).
12. Hamzaçebi, Coşkun. 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectorel bases." Energy Policy 3:2009-2016. [Online] Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223117671_Forecasting_of_Turkey's_net_electricity_energy_consumption_on_sector_bases (February 27, 2018).
13. Mahmutoğlu, Murat and Fahriye Öztürk. 2015. "Türkiye Elektrik Tüketimi Öngörüsü ve Bu Kapsamda Geliştirilebilicek Politika Önerileri." Gazi University Ekonomik Yaklaşım. [Online] Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/eyd/cp2015/239.html (February 27, 2018).
14. Nişancı, Murat. 2005. "Türkiye'de Elektrik Enerjisi Talebi ve Elektrik Tüketimi ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki." Selçuk Univesity The Journal of Social Economic Research: 107-121. [Online] Available: http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/289581 (February 27, 2018).
15. Rothe, J.P., A.K. Wadhwani and S. Wadhwani. 2009. "Short Term Load Forecasting Using Multi Parameter Regression." International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security: 303-306. [Online] Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224309206_Short_term_load_forecasting_using_Multiple_Linear_Regression (February 27, 2018).
16. Singh, Arunesh Kumar, Ibraheem S. Khatoonand Md. Muazzam. 2013. "An Overview of ElectricityDemandForecastingTechniques." Journal of Network andComplexSystems:38-44. [Online] Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313742145_An_overview_of_electricity_demand_forecasting_techniques (February 27, 2018).
17. Taylor, James W.,Lilian M. de Menezesand Patrick E. McSharry. 2006. "A Comparison of Univariate Methods for Forecasting Electricity Demand Up to a Day Ahead." International Journal of Forecasting:1-16.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207005000907
18. Toker, Ahmet Cihat and Ozan Korkmaz. 2009. "Türkiye Kısa Süreli Elektrik Talebinin Saatlik Olarak Tahmin Edilmesi" [Online] Available: http://www.emo.org.tr/ekler/d6d1c493ddc8662_ek.pdf (February 27, 2018).
19. Uslu, Mehmet Fatih, Barış Sanlı and Tansel Temur. 2013. "Türkiye Aylık Elektrik Talep Modeli." [Online] Available: http://www.barissanli.com/calismalar/2013/mfuslu-bsanli-ttemur-AETM.pdf (February 27, 2018).
20. Vaghefi, SeyedA., Mohsen A. Jafari, Emmanuel Bisse, Yan Lu and Jack Brouwer. 2014. "Modeling and forecasting of cooling and electricity load demand." Applied Energy 136: 186-196.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626191400943X
21. Yavuzdemir, Mustafa. 2014. "Türkiye'nin Kısa Dönem Yıllık Brüt Elektrik Enerjisi Talep Tahmini." Master’s Thesis. Ankara University. [Online] Available: acikarsiv.ankara.edu.tr/browse/27443/tez.pdf (February 27, 2018).