WHY IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DOWN ASSAD?: THE MURPHY LAWS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 5, 322 - 330, 28.02.2019

Yiğit Anıl Güzelipek

https://doi.org/10.30520/tjsosci.522048

Öz

In the modern history, Arab Spring was one of the most important
merciless challenge to military dictatorships all around the Middle East. All
the dictators lost their rotten thrones sooner or later except Bashar el-Assad.
There are many political or strategic explanations regarding how Assad still
partly protects his power and still represents Syria in the position of
presidency. On the other hand, sometimes “perfectly” designed international
politics fall behind while interpreting the “destined” side of international
relations. In other words, sometimes “expect the unexpected” which is the
famous formula of Murphy Laws determine the critical developments in international
relations. This paper aims to investigate the Assad’s survival based on the
Murphy Laws which is considered as one of the natural extension of post-positivist
theory in international relations. In order to support the arguments of this
paper, other historical developments are also adapted to the study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arab Spring, Assad, Post-Positivism, Murphy Laws, International Relations

Kaynakça

• Allison, R. (2013), “Russia and Syria: Explaining Allignment With A Regime in Crises”, International Affairs, 89(4), p.795-823.
• Ammerman, D. (1976), “The British Constitution and the American Revolution: A Failure of Precedent”, William&Mary Law Review, 17(3), p.473-501.
• Anonymous,“Murphy’s Laws and Corollaries”, http://bluebox.ippt.pan.pl/~vkoval/vk_files/funny/Murphy.pdf, (accessed 20.07.2018)
• Baker, K.M. (1981), “Enlightenment and Revolution in France: Old Problems, Renewed Approaches”, The Journal of Modern History, 53(2), p.281-303.
• Bloch, A. (1978). Murphy Law and Other Reasons Why Things Go Wrong, USA: Price/Stern/Sloan Publications.
• Buzan, B. (2014). “Brilliant But Now Wrong: A Sociological and Historical Sociological Assessment of Gilpin’s Warand Change in World Politics”, in John Ikenberry (ed.), Power, Orderand Change In World Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Chatterjee, A. (2015), “Is the Statement of Murphy’s Law Valid?”, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1508.07291.pdf%3B, (accessed 21.10.2018)
• Cox, W. R. (1981), “Social Forces, States and World Orders: Beyond International Relations Theory”, Millenium:Journal of International Studies, 10(2), p.126-155.
• Çalış, Ş. ve Özlük, E. (2007), “Uluslararası İlişkiler Tarihinin Yapısökümü: İdealizm-Realizm Tartışması”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 18, p. 225-243.
• Donnelly, J. (2009) “Realizm,” in Scott Burchill, et.al (ed.), Uluslararası İlişkiler Teorileri, (trans. Ali Aslan and Muhammed Ali Ağcan), İstanbul: Küre Yayınları, p.49-80.
• Gündüz, M. (2006), “Sosyal Yaşam ve Entropi Yasası: Dünya’nın Sonuna Mı Yaklaştık?”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(1), p. 345-355.
• Harman, J. (2012), “Has theArab Spring Lived Up To Expectations?”, Viewpoints, 12, p.1-24.
• Helfont, S. (2014), “Saddam and the Islamists: The Ba’thist Regime’s Instrumentalization of Religion in ForeignAffairs”, The Middle East Journal, 68 (3), p.352-366.
• Holt, A. (1878). Review of the Progress of Steam Shipping During the Last Quarter of a Century, Britain:W.Clowes and Sons.
• Khalifa, M.A. (2014), “Bahrain-Iran RelationsIn Modern Times”, unpublished MA thesis, Monterey Naval Postgraduate School
• Matthews, R. (1997), “The Science of Murphy’s Law”, Scientific American, April, p.88-91.
• McCulloch, W. (1945), “A Heterarchy of Values Determined by the Topology of Nervous Nets”, Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics, 7, p.89-93.
• Mearsheimer, J. (2009), “Reckless States and Realism”, International Relations, 23(2), p. 241-256.
• Mohammed, I. (2011), “Turkey and Iran Rivalry on Syria”, Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, 10(2-3), p.65-77.
• Murphy, R. (2011). Murphy’s Laws of Song Writing: TheBook, USA: Murphy Music ConsultingInc.
• Phillips, C. (2005), “Augustus de Morgan and the Propagation of Moral Mathematics”, Stud. Hist. Phil. Sci., 36, p.105-133.
• Rose, G. (1998), “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of International Relations”, World Politics, 51, p.144-172.
• Sander, O. (2003). Siyasi Tarih: İlkçağlardan 1918’e, Ankara: İmge.
• Schulte, G. L. (2015), “Regime Change Without Military Force: Lessons from Overthrowing Milosevic”, TheJournal of Complex Operations, 4(2), p.45-56.
• Schweller, R. (2010), “Entropy and the Trajectory of World Politics: Why Polarity Has Become Less Meaningful?”, Cambridge Review of of International Affairs, 23(1), p.145- 163.
• Schweller, R. (2014), Maxwell’s Demonandthe Golden Apple, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
• Spark, N.T (2011). A History of Murphy’sLaw, Los Angeles: Periscope Film.
• Swaine, M. D. (2012), “Chinese Views of the Syrian Conflict”, China Leadership Monitor, 39, p.1-18.
• Ullman, H. K. (2014). A Handful of Bullets: How the Murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Still Menaces the Peace, (Annapolis: Naval InstitutePress.
• Treitschke, H.V. (1914). German Destiny and Policies, New York: Knickerbocker Press.
• Wang, F. (2010), “The Evolution of Hierarchy Toward Heterarchy: A Case Study On Baosteel’s Managerial Systems”, Frontiers of Business Research In China, 4(4), p.515-540.
• White, J. (1995), “Incorporating Heterarchy intoTheory on Socio-Political Developmenet: The Case from Souteast Asia”, American Anthropological Association, 6, p.101-123.
• Wendt, A. (1993), “Anarchy is What States Make of it: The Social Construction of Power Politics”, International Organization, 46(2), p.391-425.
• Winckler, O. (2013), “The Arab Spring: Socioeconomic Aspects”, Middle East Policy, 20(4), p.68-87.
• Yalvaç, F. (2010), “Eleştirel Gerçekçilik: Uluslararası İlişkiler Kuramında Post-Pozitivizm Sonrası Aşama”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, 6(24), p.3-32.
• Yetim, M. ve Erdağ, R. (2018), “Uluslararası İlişkilerde Eleştirel Söylem Analizi: Revizyonist Söylemin Gelişimi”, İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), p.79-100.