Investigation of Radon, Total Electron Content and Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Meteorological Variables Due to Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modelling

Abstract

An Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) - Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is proposed to analyze and model the anomalies of atmospheric and ground gases by an earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Türkiye). Earthquakes, Soil radon gas and Total Electron Content (TEC) showed simultaneous anomalies. There are positive relationships between these three parameters. Also, positive relations between Rn, meteorology, and atmosphere are detected. The proposed ARIMA model and MCS for the Rn-TEC-Earthquake relationships of the measured data gave statistically significant results. This model and simulation showed statistically significant changes in the effects of microearthquakes, which are more difficult to detect than large earthquakes, especially on the ionospheric TEC.

Keywords

• Total Electron Content
• Earthquake precursors
• ARIMA
• Monte Carlo Simulation

Radon, Toplam Elektron İçeriği ve Meteorolojik Değişkenlerin Depremlere Bağlı Doğrusal ve Doğrusal Olmayan Değişimlerinin İncelenmesi: ARIMA ve Monte Carlo Modellemesi

Abstract

Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu (Türkiye) boyunca meydana gelen bir depremin atmosferik ve yer gazlarındaki anormallikleri analiz etmek ve modellemek için Entegre Otoregresif Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) - Monte Carlo Simülasyonu (MCS) önerilmiştir. Depremler, Toprak radon gazı ve Toplam Elektron İçeriği (TEC) eşzamanlı anormallikler gösterdi. Bu üç parametre arasında pozitif ilişkiler vardır. Ayrıca Rn, meteoroloji ve atmosfer arasında da pozitif ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Ölçülen verilerin Rn-TEC-Deprem ilişkileri için önerilen ARIMA modeli ve MCS istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar vermiştir. Bu model ve simülasyon, tespit edilmesi büyük depremlere göre daha zor olan mikrodepremlerin, özellikle iyonosferik TEC üzerindeki etkilerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değişiklikler olduğunu gösterdi.

Keywords

• Toplam Elektron İçeriği
• Deprem öncüleri
• ARIMA
• Monte Carlo simülasyonu

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