The Effect of Generational Transitions in Commercial Jet Technology on Aviation Safety

Abstract

The technological development of commercial jets has led to a long-term declining trend in accident risks and the frequency of fatal accidents in the aviation industry. Examining the factors behind this trend is necessary from an aviation technology perspective. The aim of this study is to determine the factors affecting fatal accidents in commercial jets and the importance of these factors. In the research, the number of fatal accidents was used as the dependent variable, while the number of hull losses and the number of flights were used as independent variables. A generalized linear model was applied to examine these relationships. According to the results obtained, the increase in the number of hull losses had a statistically significant and positive effect on fatal accidents. Accordingly, hull losses are a critical determinant for fatal accident risk. Additionally, the increase in the number of flights had a negative and significant effect on fatal accidents. This finding shows that as flight volume increased, the fatal accident rate decreased in a statistically significant manner. This situation confirms the positive effect of technological innovations in new generation commercial jets on aviation safety.

Keywords

• Technological change
• Aviation industry
• Commercial jet technologies
• Aviation safety
• Generalized Linear Model

Ticari Jet Teknolojisindeki Nesiller Arası Değişimin Havacılık Güvenliğine Etkisi

Abstract

Ticari jetlerin teknolojik gelişimiyle birlikte havacılık sektöründe kaza riskleri ve ölümcül kazaların sıklığı uzun vadede azalma eğilimi göstermektedir. Bu eğilimin arkasındaki faktörlerin incelenmesi havacılık teknolojisi açısından gereklidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ticari jetlerde meydana gelen ölümcül kazaları etkileyen faktörleri ve bu faktörlerin önemini belirlemektir. Araştırmada bağımlı değişken olarak ölümcül kaza sayısı, bağımsız değişkenler olarak ise gövde kaybı sayısı ve uçuş sayısı kullanılmıştır. Bu ilişkileri incelemek amacıyla genelleştirilmiş doğrusal model (GLM) uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, gövde kaybı sayısındaki artış ölümcül kazaları istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Buna göre gövde kayıpları, ölümcül kaza riski için kritik bir belirleyicidir. Ayrıca, uçuş sayısındaki artışın ölümcül kazalar üzerinde negatif ve anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmaktadır. Bu bulgu, uçuş hacmi arttıkça ölümcül kaza oranının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı biçimde azaldığını göstermektedir. Bu durum, yeni nesil ticari jetlerdeki teknolojik yeniliklerin havacılık güvenliğinde sağladığı olumlu etkiyi doğrulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Teknolojik değişim, Havacılık endüstrisi, Ticari jet teknolojileri, Havacılık güvenliği, Genelleştirilmiş doğrusal model

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