Enerji Güvenliği, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Orta Doğu Ülkeleri Örneği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 15 - 45, 29.06.2022

Gökhan Kartal

https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.899337

Öz

Bu çalışmada enerji güvenliğin 4 boyutu (enerji güvenliğinin 4 A’sı) dikkate alınarak 1980-2016 yılları arasında 16 Ortadoğu ülkesi için enerji güvenliği, büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Konuyla ilgili Orta Doğu ülkeleri üzerine yapılan diğer çalışmalardan farklı olarak bu çalışma daha fazla Ortadoğu ülkesini ve daha geniş bir veri dönemini kapsamakta ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alınmaktadır. İkinci nesil birim kök ve eşbütünleşme yöntemleri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen ampirik analiz sonuçları, değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Yatay kesit bağımlılığını da dikkate alan Augmented Mean Group tahmincisinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre ise enerji güvenliği risk seviyesinde %1 artışın ekonomik büyümeyi yaklaşık olarak %0,66 oranında azaltırken, ihracatta %1 artış büyümeyi %0,41 artırdığını göstermektedir. Son olarak, Granger Non-Causality test sonuçları, değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, petrol ve doğal gaz ticaretinde güvenli ticaret yollarının seçilmesi, bölgedeki önemli rezerv alanlarının ve geçiş noktalarının güvenliğinin sağlanması, bölge ekonomilerinde enerji gelirlerinin/giderlerinin payını azaltacak politikalar geliştirilmesi, ithalat ve ihracatta ülke ve geçiş güzergahlarının çeşitlendirilmesi, çevre kirliliğini önlemek için enerji verimliliğinin sağlanması ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının kullanılması gibi enerji güvenliğine yönelik politikaların önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Güvenliği, Orta Doğu Ülkeleri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı, Panel Eşbütünleşme, Panel Nedensellik

The Relationship between Energy Security, Exports and Economic Growth: The Case of the Middle East Countries

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to examine the relationship between energy security, growth and exports for 16 Middle Eastern countries between 1980 and 2016 by taking into account the 4 dimensions of energy security (4 A's of energy security). Unlike other studies on the subject of Middle Eastern countries, this study covers more Middle Eastern countries and a wider period, and takes into account the cross-sectional dependency. The results of empirical analysis conducted by using second-generation unit-root and cointegration methods demonstrate that there is cointegration relationship between the variables. According to the results obtained from AMG estimator, which also considered cross-section dependence; the 1% increase in energy security risk level reduces the economic growth by approximately 0.66%, while the 1% increase in exports increases the economic growth by 0.41%. Finally, Granger non-causality test results demonstrate that there is a bi-directional causality relationship between variables. The results highlight the importance of policies to be implemented policies to ensure energy security such as choosing safe trade routes in oil and gas trade, ensuring the security of the major crossing points in the region, developing policies to decrease the share of energy revenues/expenses in the region economies, implementing policies for country and route diversification, ensuring energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources to prevent environmental pollution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Security, Economic Growth, Cross-section Dependence, Middle Eastern Countries, Panel Cointegration

Kaynakça

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