Turizm Akademik Dergisi 2149-1690 Muharrem TUNA Estimation of Tourism Demand Equation for Turkey: The Influences of Economic, Social and Political Factors Sosyo-demografik Karakteristiklerin Turizm Talep Denklemi Üzerindeki Etkileri https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9640-8961 Bayram Onur İZMİR KATİP ÇELEBİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1374-5832 Korkmaz Abdurrahman İZMİR KATİP ÇELEBİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ 11 01 2019 6 2 15 30 08 16 2018 09 11 2019 Copyright © 2014, Turizm Akademik Dergisi 2014 Turizm Akademik Dergisi

This study aims at revealing whether there isany influence of socio-demographic characteristics of tourists, which areproxied by levels of income and education, groups of age, and purposes of thevisit, on tourism demand for Turkey. Dataset of the paper includes 24 countriesrepresenting 77.6% of total tourist arrivals to Turkey throughout period 2006-2017.The numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographic characteristicsare regressed on word of mouth effect (i.e. number of tourist arrivals inprevious year), level of income, and levels of substitute and relative pricesas well as transportation cost and terrorism variables via Bias Corrected LeastSquares Dummy Variable estimator. Empirical findings of the paper demonstratethat the numbers of tourist arrivals classified by socio-demographiccharacteristics give different responses to changes in the above-mentionedexplanatory variables in magnitude, but sign of the responses are the same.Therefore, it is concluded that there is no need to take socio-demographiccharacteristics of tourists into consideration while Turkish tourism policiesare designed. Besides, it is found out that the most important determinants ofinternational tourism demand to Turkey are the word of mouth effect and the levelof substitute price so as to imply that Turkey should follow customer-orientedand competitive tourism policies.

Bu çalışma, turistlerin gelir ve eğitim düzeyleri, yaş grupları ve gelişamaçları ile temsil edilen sosyo-demografik özelliklerinin Türkiye’ye yönelikturizm talebi üzerinde herhangi bir etkisinin olup olmadığını ortaya koymayıamaçlamaktadır. Araştırmanın veri seti 2006-2017 döneminde Türkiye’ye gelen turistlerin%77.6’sını temsil eden 24 ülkeyi kapsamaktadır. Sosyo-demografikkarakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayıları, YanlılığıDüzeltilmiş Kukla Değişkenli En Küçük Kareler tahmincisi yardımıyla ağızdankulağa etki (önceki yılda gelen turist sayısı), gelir düzeyi, nispi ve ikamefiyat düzeyleri yanında ulaşım maliyetleri ve terörizm değişkenleri üzerindentahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları, sosyo-demografikkarakteristiklerine göre sınıflandırılan gelen turist sayılarının, yukarıdasıralanan açıklayıcı değişkenlerde meydana gelen değişimlere farklı dereceden tepkilerverdiğini ancak bu tepkilerin yönünün aynı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. DolayısıylaTürk turizm politikalarının tasarımında turistlerin sosyo-demografik özelliklerinindikkate alınmasına yer olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye’yeyönelik uluslararası turizm talebinin en önemli belirleyicilerinin, tüketiciodaklı ve rekabetçi turizm politikaları izlenmesi gerektiğini ima eder şekilde ağızdankulağa etki ile ikame fiyat düzeyi olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

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